CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Wyoming
Efficiency #98
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-12 conf
@
North Carolina
Efficiency #29
2025-26: 24-9 · 12-7 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
70.1
win 20%
Projected
80.0
win 80%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNC −9.9 · total 150.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Carolina 68.7, Wyoming 67.7 → 68.1 possessions
−0.5
North Carolina offense vs Wyoming defense
+4.2
Wyoming offense vs North Carolina defense
−1.7
Projected total
150.2
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Carolina offense vs Wyoming defense
+4.2
Wyoming offense vs North Carolina defense
+1.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
North Carolina by 9.9
9.9
Wyoming side ◂▸ North Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.8 against +9.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Carolina is the faster team (68.8, #162 of 365) and Wyoming the slower (67.6, #221). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.2
model
Projected team totals
70.1 / 80.0
Wyoming / North Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#237
Wyoming
68.7#144
North Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNorth Carolina
Where North Carolina scores: shooting
North Carolina shoots an effective 54.3% (#57); Wyoming allows 52.0% (#211). Expect about 53.4%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageWyoming
Where Wyoming scores: ball control
Wyoming turns it over on 16.3% of possessions (#155); North Carolina forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#344). Expect about 14.5%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversNorth Carolina
North Carolina protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for North Carolina's offense.
ClashNorth Carolina
Style clash: ball movement
North Carolina assists on 57.2% of its made baskets; Wyoming breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Wyoming has the ball
OffenseNorth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #154
48.3% #44
-1.7 pt/100
16.3% #155
13.6% #344
+2.8 pt/100
34.1% #66
27.8% #59
+0.8 pt/100
35.4% #166
23.8% #3
-0.8 pt/100
74.3% #115
—
+0.2 pt/100
Wyoming net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100
North Carolina has the ball
OffenseWyoming allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #57
52.0% #211
+3.0 pt/100
13.9% #19
16.8% #171
+2.0 pt/100
31.2% #159
28.0% #66
-0.4 pt/100
37.1% #127
47.9% #360
+1.1 pt/100
68.2% #322
—
-0.4 pt/100
North Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Wyomingoffense vsNorth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Wyoming shoots
North Carolina allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.9%#24255.8%#7958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.4%#7241.1%#21139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10233.5%#3838.0%
Three33.0%#23434.7%#23433.7%
North Carolinaoffense vsWyomingdefense
Share of shots by zone
North Carolina shoots
Wyoming allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim65.0%#2261.7%#29258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.3%#11444.2%#27339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.1%#5136.1%#11138.0%
Three34.2%#15932.8%#10833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Wyoming
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#213 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#66
Def reb %
72.0%
#66
Turnover %
16.3%
#155
Forced TO %
16.8%
#171
FT rate
35.4%
#166
FT allowed
47.9%
#360
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−3.3
North Carolina
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#31 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#159
Def reb %
72.2%
#59
Turnover %
13.9%
#19
Forced TO %
13.6%
#344
FT rate
37.1%
#127
FT allowed
23.8%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9

North Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#31 of 365) to Wyoming’s −0.7 (#213).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wyoming2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Wyoming's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Leland WalkerGSr6'1"33-3228.713.53.03.82.345.4%28.6%3.682.7%31.7%
3Khaden BennettGJr6'4"33-3228.310.24.92.81.350.0%35.7%3.880.2%22.0%
2Nasir MeyerGFr6'7"31-2327.612.94.92.41.854.7%35.2%4.675.5%27.7%
1Damarion DennisGSo6'1"32-1923.911.23.21.30.658.7%34.0%3.186.1%23.7%
13Adam HarakowGJr6'7"33-718.96.12.80.70.657.1%38.1%2.568.0%18.1%
0Uriyah RojasGJr6'3"33-216.66.21.91.70.647.3%31.3%2.976.3%23.9%
11Gavin GoresFFr6'10"28-818.07.33.40.41.062.3%22.2%0.668.8%21.9%
8Kiani SaxonFSr6'8"33-1614.92.02.80.40.651.8%37.5%0.532.1%10.9%
10Abou MagassaFSo6'7"29-1110.33.13.00.20.557.6%—0.051.2%18.2%
35Simm-Marten SaadiFFr6'9"32-38.63.21.10.30.546.6%30.8%2.4100.0%26.2%
7Matija BelicFSr6'7"13-1217.05.54.50.81.950.0%21.1%1.555.6%23.4%
9Jared HarrisGSo6'2"12-09.74.02.40.30.343.2%30.0%1.780.0%23.7%
14Garrett SpielmanGFr6'7"8-02.01.00.50.10.166.7%66.7%0.4—24.8%
32Talan TaylorGFr6'4"3-02.31.00.70.30.075.0%50.0%0.7—15.7%
45Neil SummersFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
WyomingNorth Carolina
Efficiency
111.8
115.5
107.6
102.6
67.7
68.7
—
—
Shooting
51.8%
54.3%
53.6%
56.5%
33.0%
34.2%
74.3%
68.2%
35.4%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
16.3%
13.9%
16.8%
13.6%
34.1%
31.2%
28.0%
27.8%
8.3%
8.3%
10.9%
9.1%
Style
43.0%
42.2%
43.0%
42.6%
9.6%
14.4%
53.8%
57.2%
37.3%
28.4%
Roster
2.57
3.37
6'5"
6'6.7"
—
17.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Wyoming
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wyoming's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

North Carolina
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 13.2%
Lost
  • Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
  • Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
  • Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
  • Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
  • Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
  • Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
  • Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.