CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.8 against +9.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Carolina is the faster team (68.8, #162 of 365) and Wyoming the slower (67.6, #221). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.9%#242 | 55.8%#79 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.4%#72 | 41.1%#211 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.3%#102 | 33.5%#38 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#234 | 34.7%#234 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#22 | 61.7%#292 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#114 | 44.2%#273 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 36.1%#111 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#159 | 32.8%#108 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNorth Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#31 of 365) to Wyoming’s −0.7 (#213).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leland Walker | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-32 | 28.7 | 13.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 45.4% | 28.6% | 3.6 | 82.7% | 31.7% | |
| 3 | Khaden Bennett | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-32 | 28.3 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 35.7% | 3.8 | 80.2% | 22.0% | |
| 2 | Nasir Meyer | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-23 | 27.6 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 54.7% | 35.2% | 4.6 | 75.5% | 27.7% | |
| 1 | Damarion Dennis | G | So | 6'1" | 32-19 | 23.9 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 58.7% | 34.0% | 3.1 | 86.1% | 23.7% | |
| 13 | Adam Harakow | G | Jr | 6'7" | 33-7 | 18.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 38.1% | 2.5 | 68.0% | 18.1% | |
| 0 | Uriyah Rojas | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-2 | 16.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.3% | 2.9 | 76.3% | 23.9% | |
| 11 | Gavin Gores | F | Fr | 6'10" | 28-8 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 62.3% | 22.2% | 0.6 | 68.8% | 21.9% | |
| 8 | Kiani Saxon | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-16 | 14.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.8% | 37.5% | 0.5 | 32.1% | 10.9% | |
| 10 | Abou Magassa | F | So | 6'7" | 29-11 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 57.6% | — | 0.0 | 51.2% | 18.2% | |
| 35 | Simm-Marten Saadi | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-3 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 46.6% | 30.8% | 2.4 | 100.0% | 26.2% | |
| 7 | Matija Belic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 13-12 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 23.4% | |
| 9 | Jared Harris | G | So | 6'2" | 12-0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 43.2% | 30.0% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 23.7% | |
| 14 | Garrett Spielman | G | Fr | 6'7" | 8-0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 24.8% | |
| 32 | Talan Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 15.7% | |
| 45 | Neil Summers | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brownat Utah | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 38.7% | |
| 17 | Neo Avdalasat Virginia Tech | G | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 46.0% | 31.4% | 5.0 | 67.3% | 26.9% | |
| 14 | Angelo Brizziat Buffalo | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 56.3% | 37.3% | 4.2 | 83.4% | 27.4% | |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-25 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 54.1% | 29.5% | 2.7 | 74.2% | 17.5% | |
| 54 | Cameron Fensat South Dakota | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Matt Ableat NC State | G | So | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 51.4% | 35.5% | 4.1 | 79.6% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-4 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 40.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 26.4% | |
| 32 | Evan Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 34.4% | |
| 99 | John Holbrook | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.7% | |
| 35 | Cade Bennermanat Northwestern | C | So | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leland Walker | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-32 | 28.7 | 13.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 45.4% | 28.6% | 3.6 | 82.7% | 31.7% | |
| 3 | Khaden Bennett | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-32 | 28.3 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 35.7% | 3.8 | 80.2% | 22.0% | |
| 2 | Nasir Meyer | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-23 | 27.6 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 54.7% | 35.2% | 4.6 | 75.5% | 27.7% | |
| 1 | Damarion Dennis | G | So | 6'1" | 32-19 | 23.9 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 58.7% | 34.0% | 3.1 | 86.1% | 23.7% | |
| 13 | Adam Harakow | G | Jr | 6'7" | 33-7 | 18.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 38.1% | 2.5 | 68.0% | 18.1% | |
| 0 | Uriyah Rojas | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-2 | 16.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.3% | 2.9 | 76.3% | 23.9% | |
| 11 | Gavin Gores | F | Fr | 6'10" | 28-8 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 62.3% | 22.2% | 0.6 | 68.8% | 21.9% | |
| 8 | Kiani Saxon | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-16 | 14.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.8% | 37.5% | 0.5 | 32.1% | 10.9% | |
| 10 | Abou Magassa | F | So | 6'7" | 29-11 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 57.6% | — | 0.0 | 51.2% | 18.2% | |
| 35 | Simm-Marten Saadi | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-3 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 46.6% | 30.8% | 2.4 | 100.0% | 26.2% | |
| 7 | Matija Belic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 13-12 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 23.4% | |
| 9 | Jared Harris | G | So | 6'2" | 12-0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 43.2% | 30.0% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 23.7% | |
| 14 | Garrett Spielman | G | Fr | 6'7" | 8-0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 24.8% | |
| 32 | Talan Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 15.7% | |
| 45 | Neil Summers | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Wichita St | A | L 70–74 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 148.0 | U144 | 93.7 | 99.0 | 74.7 |
| Mar 11 | UNLV | N | L 70–73 | +3.5 | W+0.5 | 153.0 | U143 | 106.7 | 111.3 | 65.6 |
| Mar 7 | San José St | A | W 88–78 | −5.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | O166 | 146.0 | 129.4 | 60.3 |
| Mar 3 | Nevada | H | W 83–73 | +1.5 | W+11.5 | 144.0 | O156 | 125.2 | 110.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 28 | Air Force | H | W 66–62 | −21.5 | L−17.5 | 146.5 | U128 | 101.1 | 95.0 | 65.3 |
| Feb 24 | Boise St | A | L 62–72 | +8.5 | L−1.5 | 146.0 | U134 | 97.4 | 113.1 | 63.7 |
| Feb 21 | Grand Canyon | A | W 70–65 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 103.7 | 96.3 | 67.5 |
| Feb 17 | Fresno St | H | W 92–82 | −9.5 | W+0.5 | 147.5 | O174 | 140.9 | 125.6 | 65.3 |
| Feb 14 | Colorado St | A | L 68–79 | +3.5 | L−7.5 | 138.5 | O147 | 110.5 | 128.4 | 61.5 |
| Feb 7 | Utah State | H | L 83–85 | +8.5 | W+6.5 | 146.0 | O168 | 122.6 | 125.6 | 67.7 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11VCU | N | L 78–82 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 151.0 | O160 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 76.5 |
| Mar 12 | Clemson | N | L 79–80 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 140.5 | O159 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 |
| Mar 7 | #1Duke | A | L 61–76 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Mar 3 | Clemson | H | W 67–63 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U130 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 |
| Feb 28 | Virginia Tech | H | W 89–82 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Feb 23 | #24Louisville | H | W 77–74 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Syracuse | A | W 77–64 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | NC State | A | L 58–82 | +7.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Pitt | H | W 79–65 | −11.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 10 | Miami | A | L 66–75 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 156.5 | U141 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
- Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
- Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.