CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCabot Center, Boston, MA

Harvard

Efficiency #133

2025-26: 17-12 · 10-5 conf

Northeastern

Efficiency #274

2025-26: 7-24 · 3-17 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

73.7

win 55%

Projected

72.2

win 45%

No line posted yet.

Model: HARV −1.5 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northeastern 69.8, Harvard 65.6 → 67.1 possessions

−2.7

Northeastern offense vs Harvard defense

−2.5

Harvard offense vs Northeastern defense

+2.9

Projected total

145.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northeastern offense vs Harvard defense

−2.5

Harvard offense vs Northeastern defense

−2.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Harvard by 1.5

1.5

Harvard side ◂▸ Northeastern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northeastern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Northeastern is the faster team (69.6, #108 of 365) and Harvard the slower (63.9, #357). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.9

model

Projected team totals

73.7 / 72.2

Harvard / Northeastern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.6#354

Harvard

69.8#63

Northeastern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHarvard

Where Harvard scores: shooting

Harvard shoots an effective 53.2% (#94); Northeastern allows 56.4% (#351). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Northeastern averages 69.6 possessions per 40, Harvard 63.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageNortheastern

Where Northeastern struggles: the offensive glass

Northeastern rebounds 27.3% of its own misses (#286); Harvard lets opponents grab 28.2% of their own misses (#69). Expect about 27.1%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassHarvard

Harvard gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Harvard's offense.

ClashNortheastern

Style match: paint scoring

Northeastern scores 47.0% of its points in the paint; Harvard gives up 47.0% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.3% — both habits push the same way.

Harvard has the ball

OffenseNortheastern allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #94

56.4% #351

+5.3 pt/100

17.4% #233

16.8% #170

-0.5 pt/100

26.8% #302

30.2% #169

-1.6 pt/100

25.7% #359

41.9% #320

-0.1 pt/100

80.8% #1

—

+0.7 pt/100

Harvard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100

Northeastern has the ball

OffenseHarvard allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #130

50.4% #122

+0.3 pt/100

16.4% #162

17.1% #141

+0.0 pt/100

27.3% #286

28.2% #69

-2.0 pt/100

29.4% #324

26.6% #17

-1.0 pt/100

69.0% #299

—

-0.3 pt/100

Northeastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Harvardoffense vsNortheasterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Harvard shoots

38.5

4.1

17.1

40.3

Northeastern allows

43.5

6.2

14.9

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.7%#80	63.5%#335	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#35	45.5%#314	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.8%#118	47.9%#364	38.0%
Three	34.7%#135	35.8%#297	33.7%

Northeasternoffense vsHarvarddefense

Share of shots by zone

Northeastern shoots

42.0

5.9

15.1

37.1

Harvard allows

41.4

4.6

15.2

38.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#103	56.4%#95	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#249	44.9%#295	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#157	41.3%#284	38.0%
Three	33.7%#187	32.6%#94	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Harvard

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365

Off reb %

26.8%

#302

Def reb %

71.8%

#69

Turnover %

17.4%

#233

Forced TO %

17.1%

#141

FT rate

25.7%

#359

FT allowed

26.6%

#17

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Northeastern

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#321 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#286

Def reb %

69.8%

#169

Turnover %

16.4%

#162

Forced TO %

16.8%

#170

FT rate

29.4%

#324

FT allowed

41.9%

#320

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Harvard has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#212 of 365) to Northeastern’s −3.7 (#321).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Harvard2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Tey Barbour	G	So	6'4"	29-28	33.6	13.6	5.2	1.4	1.3	60.8%	39.6%	6.8	81.6%	22.1%
13	Chandler Pigge	G	Sr	6'5"	29-29	33.6	12.9	5.1	3.3	2.0	50.6%	31.5%	3.1	75.3%	26.3%
4	Robert Hinton	G	So	6'5"	29-29	33.4	16.8	4.8	2.1	1.8	52.4%	29.4%	2.9	82.9%	31.2%
15	Thomas Batties III	F	Jr	6'7"	29-29	33.0	12.3	5.4	2.3	1.6	57.7%	45.3%	4.4	87.2%	22.4%
5	Ben Eisendrath	G	So	6'2"	28-26	29.1	5.3	2.2	3.3	2.2	45.2%	14.3%	1.5	89.7%	15.9%
7	Austin Hunt	G	So	6'4"	14-3	22.8	6.9	3.6	1.0	1.1	58.7%	37.8%	2.6	81.8%	18.6%
10	Frankie Mannino	G	Fr	6'5"	28-0	8.9	1.8	1.3	0.5	0.3	57.4%	10.0%	0.4	66.7%	13.1%
34	Ryan Sullivan	F	Fr	6'9"	21-0	7.5	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.2	60.0%	0.0%	0.0	30.0%	11.3%
3	Xavier Nesbitt	G	Jr	5'11"	27-0	5.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.3	24.1%	11.1%	0.7	75.0%	17.0%
0	Kenan Parrish	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	6.2	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.4	45.8%	33.3%	0.5	66.7%	26.6%
35	Luca Ace-Nasteski	F	Jr	6'10"	20-0	5.5	1.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	43.8%	0.0%	0.1	81.8%	13.6%
12	Dutch Dowdell	G	So	6'6"	16-0	3.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	44.1%	31.3%	1.0	—	18.3%
18	Joseph Quartey	G	Fr	6'2"	7-0	2.9	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	18.3%
14	Greg Cooper	G	Sr	6'0"	4-1	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	0.5	—	13.6%
24	Payton Pitts	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	1.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	12.5%
41	Avner Dror	F	Fr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.5%
11	Alex Touomou	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Harvard2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Tey Barbour	G	So	6'4"	29-28	33.6	13.6	5.2	1.4	1.3	60.8%	39.6%	6.8	81.6%	22.1%
13	Chandler Pigge	G	Sr	6'5"	29-29	33.6	12.9	5.1	3.3	2.0	50.6%	31.5%	3.1	75.3%	26.3%
4	Robert Hinton	G	So	6'5"	29-29	33.4	16.8	4.8	2.1	1.8	52.4%	29.4%	2.9	82.9%	31.2%
15	Thomas Batties III	F	Jr	6'7"	29-29	33.0	12.3	5.4	2.3	1.6	57.7%	45.3%	4.4	87.2%	22.4%
5	Ben Eisendrath	G	So	6'2"	28-26	29.1	5.3	2.2	3.3	2.2	45.2%	14.3%	1.5	89.7%	15.9%
7	Austin Hunt	G	So	6'4"	14-3	22.8	6.9	3.6	1.0	1.1	58.7%	37.8%	2.6	81.8%	18.6%
10	Frankie Mannino	G	Fr	6'5"	28-0	8.9	1.8	1.3	0.5	0.3	57.4%	10.0%	0.4	66.7%	13.1%
34	Ryan Sullivan	F	Fr	6'9"	21-0	7.5	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.2	60.0%	0.0%	0.0	30.0%	11.3%
3	Xavier Nesbitt	G	Jr	5'11"	27-0	5.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.3	24.1%	11.1%	0.7	75.0%	17.0%
0	Kenan Parrish	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	6.2	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.4	45.8%	33.3%	0.5	66.7%	26.6%
35	Luca Ace-Nasteski	F	Jr	6'10"	20-0	5.5	1.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	43.8%	0.0%	0.1	81.8%	13.6%
12	Dutch Dowdell	G	So	6'6"	16-0	3.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	44.1%	31.3%	1.0	—	18.3%
18	Joseph Quartey	G	Fr	6'2"	7-0	2.9	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	18.3%
14	Greg Cooper	G	Sr	6'0"	4-1	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	0.5	—	13.6%
24	Payton Pitts	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	1.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	12.5%
41	Avner Dror	F	Fr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.5%
11	Alex Touomou	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Harvard

Against the spread

Season

14-14

Home

4-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +5.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

10-18

Home

5-6

Road

4-11

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.5

Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	PennAdjEM #162	N	L 60–62 OT	−3.5	L−5.5	139.0	U122	85.9	88.7	69.9
Mar 6	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	W 81–71	−5.0	W+5.0	135.0	O152	120.2	105.4	67.4
Feb 28	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 61–64	−1.0	L−4.0	139.5	U125	85.3	89.5	71.5
Feb 27	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	W 58–56	−4.0	L−2.0	129.5	U114	96.6	93.3	60.0
Feb 21	CornellAdjEM #135	A	W 73–54	+5.5	W+24.5	155.0	U127	121.5	89.9	60.1
Feb 14	YaleAdjEM #57	H	L 75–76 OT	+5.5	W+4.5	139.5	O151	114.2	115.8	65.7
Feb 13	BrownAdjEM #275	H	W 56–53	−8.0	L−5.0	131.5	U109	90.6	85.7	61.8
Feb 7	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 71–58	−1.0	W+12.0	140.5	U129	110.3	90.1	64.4
Jan 31	YaleAdjEM #57	A	W 67–65	+12.0	W+14.0	141.5	U132	115.7	112.3	57.9
Jan 30	BrownAdjEM #275	A	W 69–59	−1.5	W+8.5	133.0	U128	113.3	96.8	60.9

Northeastern

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

2-10

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

9-3

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.4

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	L 77–84	+5.0	L−2.0	140.5	O161	112.0	122.2	68.8
Mar 6	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	W 88–72	−2.0	W+14.0	152.5	O160	122.9	100.5	71.6
Mar 3	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 83–89	+4.0	L−2.0	149.5	O172	123.9	132.9	67.0
Feb 28	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 65–76	+4.5	L−6.5	146.5	U141	98.6	115.2	65.9
Feb 26	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 77–84	+11.0	W+4.0	164.5	U161	96.4	105.1	79.9
Feb 21	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	145.0	O150	106.1	128.0	64.1
Feb 19	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 61–70	−1.0	L−10.0	145.0	U131	91.0	104.4	67.0
Feb 12	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 67–94	+5.5	L−21.5	167.5	U161	96.2	135.0	69.7
Feb 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 55–69	+4.0	L−10.0	153.5	U124	82.0	102.9	67.1
Feb 5	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 63–80	+9.0	L−8.0	153.5	U143	94.9	120.5	66.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

HarvardNortheastern

Efficiency

107.6

107.7

105.6

113.7

65.6

69.8

—

Shooting

53.2%

52.4%

54.0%

53.6%

34.7%

33.7%

80.8%

69.0%

25.7%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

17.4%

16.4%

17.1%

16.8%

26.8%

27.3%

28.2%

30.2%

10.2%

9.3%

7.4%

9.5%

Style

40.2%

37.8%

43.0%

47.0%

10.7%

15.3%

56.1%

55.7%

19.9%

33.4%

Roster

2.45

2.26

6'4.9"

6'6.1"

—

90.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Harvard

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Northeastern

Returning minutes: 90.0%Returning production: 93.2%

Lost

JB Frankel 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 11	2025-26	Northeastern 77 – 60 Harvard

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.