CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUD Arena, Dayton, OH
Siena
Efficiency #134
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-7 conf
@
Dayton
Efficiency #62
2025-26: 25-12 · 14-7 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
65.6
win 26%
Projected
73.2
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: DAY −7.6 · total 138.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Dayton 67.8, Siena 66.4 → 66.0 possessions
−5.1
Dayton offense vs Siena defense
−0.3
Siena offense vs Dayton defense
−4.1
Projected total
138.8
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Dayton offense vs Siena defense
−0.3
Siena offense vs Dayton defense
+4.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Dayton by 7.6
7.6
Siena side ◂▸ Dayton side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.7 against a projected 138.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Dayton.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Dayton is the faster team (67.6, #216 of 365) and Siena the slower (64.2, #350). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.8
model
Projected team totals
65.6 / 73.2
Siena / Dayton
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#322
Siena
67.8#222
Dayton
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Dayton averages 67.6 possessions per 40, Siena 64.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSiena
Where Siena struggles: ball control
Siena turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#126); Dayton forces turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions (#11). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Siena) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Siena at about 34.6% of its shots from three, Dayton about 41.0%.
DefenseDayton
Dayton's ball-hawking
Dayton ranks #23 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Siena's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageDayton
Where Dayton struggles: shooting
Dayton shoots an effective 51.6% (#168); Siena allows 48.5% (#48). Expect about 50.0%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassDayton
Dayton gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Dayton's offense.
Siena has the ball
OffenseDayton allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #222
51.0% #164
-0.9 pt/100
15.8% #126
21.0% #11
-2.6 pt/100
31.8% #133
28.8% #94
+0.1 pt/100
33.4% #226
35.5% #194
-0.1 pt/100
77.1% #32
—
+0.4 pt/100
Siena net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Dayton has the ball
OffenseSiena allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #168
48.5% #48
-1.8 pt/100
16.9% #195
17.0% #152
-0.3 pt/100
26.9% #298
29.5% #133
-1.7 pt/100
46.2% #2
27.5% #27
+0.1 pt/100
75.4% #71
—
+0.3 pt/100
Dayton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSienaoffense vsDaytondefense
Share of shots by zone
Siena shoots
40.8
5.5
22.2
31.6
Dayton allows
37.3
9.9
12.5
40.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.7%#206 | 57.9%#143 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.5%#46 | 34.8%#54 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.1%#23 | 37.1%#134 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.6%#330 | 35.4%#270 | 33.7% |
Daytonoffense vsSienadefense
Share of shots by zone
Dayton shoots
42.8
6.3
9.8
41.1
Siena allows
36.8
4.8
19.2
39.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.8%#122 | 53.4%#29 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 27.4%#360 | 44.7%#287 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#326 | 39.7%#232 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#182 | 32.3%#82 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSiena
+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#133
Def reb %
70.5%
#133
Turnover %
15.8%
#126
Forced TO %
17.0%
#152
FT rate
33.4%
#226
FT allowed
27.5%
#27
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Dayton
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#19 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#298
Def reb %
71.2%
#94
Turnover %
16.9%
#195
Forced TO %
21.0%
#11
FT rate
46.2%
#2
FT allowed
35.5%
#194
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.9
Foul shots drawn+2.9
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Dayton has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#19 of 365) to Siena’s +3.2 (#50).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Siena2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Brendan Coyle | G | Sr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 30.5 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.8% | 30.0% | 6.8 | 82.1% | 19.8% | |
| 30 | Tan Yildizogluat VMI | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 45.4% | 27.1% | 3.8 | 63.3% | 24.5% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Henderson | G | So | 6'6" | 28-1 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 30.4% | 2.5 | 75.8% | 18.8% | |
| 11 | Owen Schlager | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 31.8% | 14.3% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 27.5% | |
| 33 | Chris Torres | G | Jr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 24.4% | |
| 12 | Reid Ducharme | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Andrs Amn | G | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Angelos Bratakos | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Mana Martin | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Pace Prosser | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Parrish Edmond Jr. | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 94 | Paul Lambert | G | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Sei'Mir Roberson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Tim Ibukunoluwa | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Trent Egbiremolen | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 77 | Yannis Steger | G | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tan Yildizoglu (from VMI)
Dayton2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Javon Bennett | G | Sr | 5'10" | 37-37 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 49.0% | 34.7% | 7.0 | 89.8% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Keonte Jones | G | Sr | 6'6" | 37-37 | 30.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 53.9% | 31.7% | 1.1 | 63.1% | 16.1% | |
| 29 | Amael L'Etang | F | So | 7'1" | 33-31 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 2.9 | 76.5% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Jordan Derkack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 27.6% | 1.8 | 72.2% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Bryce Heard | G | So | 6'6" | 36-6 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 36.6% | 2.0 | 79.1% | 20.5% | |
| 3 | Jaiun Simon | F | So | 6'6" | 36-16 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.7% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 80.5% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Jacob Conner | F | Sr | 6'10" | 36-8 | 17.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 29.7% | 1.8 | 63.0% | 12.8% | |
| 1 | Malcolm Thomas | F | Fr | 6'8" | 26-0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 54.8% | 33.3% | 0.7 | 56.8% | 29.2% | |
| 22 | Damon Friery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 44.4% | 35.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 50 | Sean Pouedet | G | Fr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 11 | Evan Dickey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 14.6% | |
| 33 | Makai Grant | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 33.9% | |
| 25 | Will Maxwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jaron McKie | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Siena2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Brendan Coyle | G | Sr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 30.5 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.8% | 30.0% | 6.8 | 82.1% | 19.8% | |
| 30 | Tan Yildizogluat VMI | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 45.4% | 27.1% | 3.8 | 63.3% | 24.5% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Henderson | G | So | 6'6" | 28-1 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 30.4% | 2.5 | 75.8% | 18.8% | |
| 11 | Owen Schlager | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 31.8% | 14.3% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 27.5% | |
| 33 | Chris Torres | G | Jr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 24.4% | |
| 12 | Reid Ducharme | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Andrs Amn | G | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Angelos Bratakos | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Mana Martin | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Pace Prosser | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Parrish Edmond Jr. | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 94 | Paul Lambert | G | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Sei'Mir Roberson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Tim Ibukunoluwa | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Trent Egbiremolen | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 77 | Yannis Steger | G | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tan Yildizoglu (from VMI)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Siena
Against the spread
Season
20-14-1
Home
7-6
Road
8-7-1
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.2
Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
11-23-1
Home
4-9
Road
7-9
Last 10
1-8-1
avg vs total −3.4
Over in 0 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #1Duke | N | L 65–71 | +27.5 | W+21.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 105.0 | 114.7 | 61.9 |
| Mar 10 | Merrimack | N | W 64–54 | +1.5 | W+11.5 | 128.5 | U118 | 100.7 | 84.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 8 | Fairfield | N | W 76–61 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 138.0 | U137 | 119.0 | 95.5 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Mount St Marys | N | W 63–58 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 135.0 | U121 | 104.4 | 96.1 | 60.3 |
| Mar 1 | Rider | H | W 76–61 | −14.5 | W+0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 114.2 | 91.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Fairfield | A | L 58–72 | −1.0 | L−15.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 82.9 | 102.9 | 69.9 |
| Feb 22 | Saint Peter's | H | W 72–63 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 136.0 | U135 | 117.3 | 102.6 | 61.4 |
| Feb 20 | Merrimack | A | L 72–79 OT | +2.5 | L−4.5 | 133.0 | O151 | 113.6 | 124.7 | 63.4 |
| Feb 15 | Marist | A | W 67–63 | +2.0 | W+6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 102.7 | 96.5 | 65.3 |
| Feb 13 | Quinnipiac | H | L 62–74 | −4.0 | L−16.0 | 144.0 | U136 | 92.8 | 110.8 | 66.8 |
Dayton
Against the spread
Season
17-18-2
Home
8-10
Road
6-6-1
Last 10
5-3-2
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 2 pushesCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-24
Home
4-14
Road
6-7
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −11.4
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | Illinois St | H | L 55–61 | −7.0 | L−13.0 | 140.0 | U116 | 87.6 | 97.2 | 62.8 |
| Mar 21 | UNC Wilmington | A | W 80–61 | −3.5 | W+15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 125.8 | 95.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 18 | Bradley | A | W 80–66 | −2.5 | W+11.5 | 141.0 | O146 | 133.9 | 110.4 | 59.8 |
| Mar 15 | VCU | N | L 62–70 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 138.5 | U132 | 96.0 | 108.4 | 64.6 |
| Mar 14 | Saint Louis | N | W 70–69 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 145.5 | U139 | 102.3 | 100.8 | 68.4 |
| Mar 13 | St Bonaventure | N | W 68–63 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 103.3 | 95.7 | 65.8 |
| Mar 6 | VCU | H | L 62–68 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 102.2 | 112.1 | 60.6 |
| Mar 3 | Richmond | A | W 65–60 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U125 | 105.1 | 97.0 | 61.8 |
| Feb 27 | G Washington | A | W 68–66 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 152.0 | U134 | 101.7 | 98.7 | 66.9 |
| Feb 24 | #23Saint Louis | H | W 77–62 | +3.5 | W+18.5 | 157.5 | U139 | 110.9 | 89.3 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSienaDayton
Efficiency
108.6
109.9
106.7
102.2
66.4
67.8
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
51.6%
52.5%
52.1%
30.6%
33.9%
77.1%
75.4%
33.4%
46.2%
Ball control & glass
15.8%
16.9%
17.0%
21.0%
31.8%
26.9%
29.5%
28.8%
10.2%
9.9%
9.5%
11.4%
Style
32.2%
41.4%
47.7%
41.6%
7.1%
14.1%
53.2%
59.1%
22.3%
27.4%
Roster
3.65
3.13
6'5.6"
6'5.6"
21.6%
85.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSiena
Returning minutes: 21.6%Returning production: 12.4%
Lost
- Gavin Doty 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Justice Shoats 35.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Francis Folefac 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Antonio Chandler 18.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian Jones 17.0 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Riley Mulvey 13.4 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tan Yildizoglu from VMI · 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Paul Lambert no D1 minutes last season
- Angelos Bratakos no D1 minutes last season
- Mana Martin no D1 minutes last season
- Yannis Steger no D1 minutes last season
- Tim Ibukunoluwa no D1 minutes last season
Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Dayton
Returning minutes: 85.2%Returning production: 82.2%
Lost
- De'Shayne Montgomery 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Added
- Jaron McKie no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.