CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAmica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI

Bryant

Efficiency #347

2025-26: 9-22 · 5-12 conf

Providence

Efficiency #81

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-14 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

68.1

win 7%

Projected

84.9

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: PROV −16.8 · total 153.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Providence 70.9, Bryant 66.3 → 68.9 possessions

+1.3

Providence offense vs Bryant defense

+8.2

Bryant offense vs Providence defense

−4.6

Projected total

153.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Providence offense vs Bryant defense

+8.2

Bryant offense vs Providence defense

+4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Providence by 16.8

16.8

Bryant side ◂▸ Providence side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.1 against a projected 153.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Providence.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Providence is the faster team (72.3, #21 of 365) and Bryant the slower (64.4, #347). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.0

model

Projected team totals

68.1 / 84.9

Bryant / Providence

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.3#330

Bryant

70.9#18

Providence

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageProvidence

Where Providence scores: shooting

Providence shoots an effective 55.0% (#37); Bryant allows 52.7% (#257). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Providence averages 72.3 possessions per 40, Bryant 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageBryant

Where Bryant struggles: shooting

Bryant shoots an effective 46.9% (#340); Providence allows 51.4% (#179). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Providence, Bryant, Bryant's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bryant at about 45.6% of its shots from three, Providence about 38.0%.

TurnoversProvidence

Providence protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Providence's offense.

Bryant has the ball

OffenseProvidence allowsvs D1 avg

46.9% #340

51.4% #179

-3.6 pt/100

20.2% #351

13.1% #352

+0.4 pt/100

27.7% #276

30.8% #195

-1.0 pt/100

29.4% #322

32.7% #125

-0.5 pt/100

76.0% #53

—

+0.3 pt/100

Bryant net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100

Providence has the ball

OffenseBryant allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #37

52.7% #257

+4.1 pt/100

16.7% #174

14.6% #316

+1.8 pt/100

31.7% #135

31.0% #203

+0.7 pt/100

36.7% #138

33.5% #141

-0.0 pt/100

75.7% #60

—

+0.3 pt/100

Providence net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bryantoffense vsProvidencedefense

Share of shots by zone

Bryant shoots

38.1

3.2

11.2

47.6

Providence allows

37.3

6.1

18.4

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#283	57.2%#121	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#277	46.7%#329	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.8%#363	37.9%#154	38.0%
Three	30.0%#343	35.3%#265	33.7%

Providenceoffense vsBryantdefense

Share of shots by zone

Providence shoots

40.7

4.6

14.1

40.5

Bryant allows

45.4

5.1

13.5

36.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#88	57.5%#128	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#156	44.0%#267	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#107	34.7%#65	38.0%
Three	36.4%#45	36.3%#320	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bryant

−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#354 of 365

Off reb %

27.7%

#276

Def reb %

69.0%

#203

Turnover %

20.2%

#351

Forced TO %

14.6%

#316

FT rate

29.4%

#322

FT allowed

33.5%

#141

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−2.4

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.4

Providence

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#228 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#135

Def reb %

69.2%

#195

Turnover %

16.7%

#174

Forced TO %

13.1%

#352

FT rate

36.7%

#138

FT allowed

32.7%

#125

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Providence has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#228 of 365) to Bryant’s −5.8 (#354).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Providence2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Stefan Vaaks	G	Fr	6'7"	31-22	31.5	15.8	2.5	3.2	1.9	52.2%	35.0%	8.4	83.9%	27.9%
11	Ryan Mela	G	So	6'7"	33-22	25.9	9.9	5.3	2.0	1.6	53.9%	32.1%	1.7	80.5%	21.6%
55	Oswin Erhunmwunse	F	So	6'10"	33-31	25.0	6.9	8.3	0.8	1.4	67.3%	—	0.0	52.5%	15.0%
1	Jason Edwards	G	Sr	6'1"	23-13	26.7	16.5	2.8	3.0	1.8	51.6%	34.3%	6.1	79.0%	33.8%
14	Corey Floyd Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	24-18	25.4	7.6	4.0	2.5	1.5	49.3%	37.3%	2.1	79.5%	18.5%
13	Cole Hargrove	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	13.1	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.5	51.4%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	8.8%
31	Duncan Powell	F	Sr	6'8"	22-5	16.6	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.7	47.7%	30.8%	3.0	60.7%	17.6%
20	Nilavan Daniels	G	So	6'3"	20-1	9.8	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	69.6%	47.6%	1.1	77.8%	8.8%
17	Peteris Pinnis	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	4.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.4	53.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.9%
4	Jaylen Harrell	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.8	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	59.4%	27.3%	1.8	100.0%	17.8%
3	Daquan Davis	G	So	6'1"	3-0	9.3	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	0.0%	9.9%
8	Jack Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.9	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.4	—	12.8%
10	Rich Barron	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bryant

Against the spread

Season

11-18

Home

6-5

Road

5-13

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

7-4

Road

4-14

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +10.6

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 57–77	+12.0	L−8.0	131.5	O134	95.9	129.5	59.5
Mar 3	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	L 83–88 2OT	+1.0	L−4.0	135.5	O171	106.3	112.7	78.1
Feb 28	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 69–52	+1.5	W+18.5	138.5	U121	107.3	80.9	64.3
Feb 26	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 58–70	+10.0	L−2.0	138.0	U128	91.7	110.7	63.3
Feb 19	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	L 67–79	−5.5	L−17.5	135.0	O146	110.6	130.4	60.6
Feb 14	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 63–90	+12.5	L−14.5	133.0	O153	94.4	134.8	66.8
Feb 12	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 69–88	+4.5	L−14.5	142.0	O157	105.6	134.7	65.3
Feb 7	MaineAdjEM #335	H	W 73–67	−2.5	W+3.5	128.0	O140	107.7	98.8	67.8
Feb 5	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	L 63–65	−1.0	L−3.0	134.0	U128	104.3	107.7	60.4
Jan 31	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 92–84	−1.0	W+7.0	132.5	O176	124.4	113.6	73.9

Providence

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-7

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

11-5

Road

8-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 72–85	+12.0	L−1.0	159.5	U157	95.4	112.6	75.5
Mar 11	ButlerAdjEM #87	N	W 91–81	−2.0	W+8.0	162.5	O172	125.4	111.6	72.6
Mar 7	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	L 79–80	+1.0	P0.0	157.0	O159	108.5	109.8	72.8
Mar 4	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	L 56–78	−4.5	L−26.5	162.0	U134	78.9	109.9	71.0
Feb 28	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 79–76	+4.0	W+7.0	167.0	U155	116.3	111.9	67.9
Feb 25	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 94–84	−5.5	W+4.5	170.0	O178	135.3	120.9	69.5
Feb 21	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 71–68	+3.0	W+6.0	152.5	U139	105.7	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	167.0	U148	91.6	104.9	75.3
Feb 11	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 80–87	+5.0	L−2.0	150.5	O167	116.8	127.1	68.5
Feb 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	W 90–72	−5.0	W+13.0	153.5	O162	125.8	100.6	71.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BryantProvidence

Efficiency

100.5

115.4

113.4

109.8

66.3

70.9

—

Shooting

46.9%

55.0%

48.7%

55.3%

30.0%

36.4%

76.0%

75.7%

29.4%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

20.2%

16.7%

14.6%

13.1%

27.7%

31.7%

31.0%

30.8%

12.2%

10.4%

8.7%

8.6%

Style

47.9%

40.5%

39.2%

43.4%

7.9%

14.3%

53.1%

47.5%

28.4%

30.8%

Roster

2.17

2.57

6'7.1"

6'6.4"

—

73.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bryant

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Providence

Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 69.1%

Lost

Jaylin Sellers 30.0 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamier Jones 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.