CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceThe Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS

SE Louisiana

Efficiency #296

2025-26: 9-22 · 6-16 conf

Ole Miss

Efficiency #82

2025-26: 15-20 · 7-15 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

63.4

win 15%

Projected

75.5

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: MISS −12.1 · total 139.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Ole Miss 67.5, SE Louisiana 67.1 → 66.3 possessions

−4.4

Ole Miss offense vs SE Louisiana defense

+1.7

SE Louisiana offense vs Ole Miss defense

−6.6

Projected total

139.0

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Ole Miss offense vs SE Louisiana defense

+1.7

SE Louisiana offense vs Ole Miss defense

+6.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Ole Miss by 12.1

12.1

SE Louisiana side ◂▸ Ole Miss side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.9 against a projected 139.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ole Miss.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Ole Miss is the faster team (68.3, #188 of 365) and SE Louisiana the slower (65.6, #312). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.0

model

Projected team totals

63.4 / 75.5

SE Louisiana / Ole Miss

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#282

SE Louisiana

67.5#248

Ole Miss

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSE Louisiana

Where SE Louisiana struggles: shooting

SE Louisiana shoots an effective 46.7% (#343); Ole Miss allows 50.5% (#127). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseOle Miss

Ole Miss's shot-blocking

Ole Miss ranks #28 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of SE Louisiana's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (SE Louisiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Louisiana at about 41.5% of its shots from three, Ole Miss about 35.3%.

ClashOle Miss

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Ole Miss (#23 in turnover rate) against SE Louisiana (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 16.7%. Historically SE Louisiana's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

SE Louisiana has the ball

OffenseOle Miss allowsvs D1 avg

46.7% #343

50.5% #127

-4.3 pt/100

18.4% #291

16.4% #189

-0.9 pt/100

28.6% #245

32.6% #285

-0.1 pt/100

40.3% #56

41.2% #315

+0.8 pt/100

68.4% #318

—

-0.4 pt/100

SE Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100

Ole Miss has the ball

OffenseSE Louisiana allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #217

52.4% #233

+0.1 pt/100

14.0% #23

19.1% #46

+0.1 pt/100

28.3% #253

31.4% #225

-0.6 pt/100

33.0% #238

41.2% #314

+0.3 pt/100

74.9% #86

—

+0.2 pt/100

Ole Miss net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SE Louisianaoffense vsOle Missdefense

Share of shots by zone

SE Louisiana shoots

35.9

5.4

19.4

39.3

Ole Miss allows

36.3

6.1

15.0

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#171	57.5%#129	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#309	45.2%#303	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#309	36.8%#125	38.0%
Three	28.4%#362	33.4%#151	33.7%

Ole Missoffense vsSE Louisianadefense

Share of shots by zone

Ole Miss shoots

28.6

7.4

29.0

34.9

SE Louisiana allows

38.3

5.0

19.5

37.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.8%#26	59.1%#195	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.4%#213	46.7%#328	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.2%#140	36.9%#127	38.0%
Three	33.2%#221	36.0%#301	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SE Louisiana

−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#200 of 365

Off reb %

28.6%

#245

Def reb %

68.6%

#225

Turnover %

18.4%

#291

Forced TO %

19.1%

#46

FT rate

40.3%

#56

FT allowed

41.2%

#314

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.5

Ole Miss

−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#260 of 365

Off reb %

28.3%

#253

Def reb %

67.4%

#285

Turnover %

14.0%

#23

Forced TO %

16.4%

#189

FT rate

33.0%

#238

FT allowed

41.2%

#315

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed−1.5

SE Louisiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#200 of 365) to Ole Miss’s −1.6 (#260).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jeremy Elyzee	F	So	6'7"	31-31	29.5	11.1	4.5	1.8	1.9	48.9%	21.2%	1.7	70.3%	25.7%
23	Isaiah Gaines	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	28.3	10.6	6.2	1.6	1.9	54.9%	9.1%	0.4	63.4%	23.9%
1	Makhi Myles	F	So	6'7"	31-18	21.0	7.7	3.6	0.6	0.9	50.5%	34.3%	3.3	82.8%	22.7%
10	Jaiden Lawrence	G	Jr	6'4"	31-18	20.3	5.1	2.4	0.6	0.5	45.9%	29.9%	3.5	66.7%	17.2%
4	CJ Booker	PG	So	5'10"	30-22	20.5	4.7	1.3	2.0	0.8	45.4%	39.7%	1.9	72.2%	17.3%
8	Peter Hemschemeier	G	Fr	6'5"	27-12	20.3	6.4	1.6	1.9	1.6	40.7%	27.5%	4.4	73.1%	27.2%
3	Ethan Pickett	G	Sr	6'5"	31-21	17.6	5.1	2.4	1.3	1.1	44.4%	16.0%	0.8	68.4%	21.4%
2	Jalen Forrest	G	Jr	6'4"	28-0	17.2	7.9	2.6	0.6	1.0	44.0%	26.5%	2.4	78.8%	29.6%
5	Kyle Edison	G	So	6'3"	25-2	9.8	3.2	1.5	0.9	0.8	43.8%	23.1%	1.6	64.9%	25.4%
6	Ubong-Abasi Etim	C	Sr	6'9"	31-0	7.4	1.2	1.5	0.2	0.2	51.5%	—	0.0	16.7%	12.1%
32	Garrett Shoemaker	F	Fr	6'9"	24-0	7.1	1.9	1.4	0.1	0.4	51.5%	29.4%	0.7	35.7%	20.5%
12	Ahmed Essahaty	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	10.1	2.2	1.4	0.8	0.9	38.9%	21.1%	1.2	58.3%	21.1%
7	Seth Jones	G	Jr	6'1"	8-0	19.8	7.3	2.8	1.0	2.3	41.7%	27.9%	5.4	80.0%	30.3%
11	Amir Chaney	PG	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Cody Al-Naziat	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Ole Miss2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	Ilias Kamardine	G	Sr	6'4"	35-35	31.1	11.3	3.4	3.8	2.0	47.9%	29.3%	4.0	76.4%	24.6%
2	AJ Storr	G	Sr	6'5"	35-15	26.3	15.5	3.1	1.9	1.5	49.5%	35.0%	3.3	78.3%	35.4%
23	Patton Pinkins	G	Fr	6'5"	35-20	25.0	9.3	1.9	0.9	0.3	55.9%	42.2%	2.9	85.9%	18.5%
11	Travis Perry	G	So	6'1"	35-16	16.5	5.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	48.8%	35.3%	3.9	88.0%	19.6%
8	Eduardo Klafke	G	So	6'5"	34-12	15.0	4.6	2.5	1.1	0.5	59.0%	42.6%	1.4	74.4%	16.3%
1	Corey Chest	F	So	6'8"	34-4	13.1	2.6	3.8	0.6	0.5	60.2%	100.0%	0.0	48.1%	12.5%
13	Kezza Giffa	G	Sr	6'1"	28-8	15.5	5.9	1.3	1.3	1.0	52.2%	37.2%	1.5	82.4%	22.0%
88	Augusto Cassia	F	Jr	6'8"	31-5	10.4	2.2	1.6	0.5	0.3	49.1%	25.0%	0.5	77.8%	13.5%
3	Koren Johnson	G	Jr	6'1"	25-1	9.6	1.8	0.8	1.4	0.4	31.7%	19.4%	1.2	72.7%	18.7%
31	Zach Day	G	Fr	6'5"	20-0	7.6	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	26.6%	18.5%	1.4	50.0%	13.6%
7	Niko Bundalo	F	Fr	6'10"	11-0	3.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	66.7%	—	0.0	66.7%	16.0%
5	Hobert Grayson IV	G	Sr	6'4"	5-0	5.6	1.4	1.4	0.2	0.2	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.2%
22	Max Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	10-1	2.5	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	30.0%	20.0%	1.0	100.0%	29.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jeremy Elyzee	F	So	6'7"	31-31	29.5	11.1	4.5	1.8	1.9	48.9%	21.2%	1.7	70.3%	25.7%
23	Isaiah Gaines	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	28.3	10.6	6.2	1.6	1.9	54.9%	9.1%	0.4	63.4%	23.9%
1	Makhi Myles	F	So	6'7"	31-18	21.0	7.7	3.6	0.6	0.9	50.5%	34.3%	3.3	82.8%	22.7%
10	Jaiden Lawrence	G	Jr	6'4"	31-18	20.3	5.1	2.4	0.6	0.5	45.9%	29.9%	3.5	66.7%	17.2%
4	CJ Booker	PG	So	5'10"	30-22	20.5	4.7	1.3	2.0	0.8	45.4%	39.7%	1.9	72.2%	17.3%
8	Peter Hemschemeier	G	Fr	6'5"	27-12	20.3	6.4	1.6	1.9	1.6	40.7%	27.5%	4.4	73.1%	27.2%
3	Ethan Pickett	G	Sr	6'5"	31-21	17.6	5.1	2.4	1.3	1.1	44.4%	16.0%	0.8	68.4%	21.4%
2	Jalen Forrest	G	Jr	6'4"	28-0	17.2	7.9	2.6	0.6	1.0	44.0%	26.5%	2.4	78.8%	29.6%
5	Kyle Edison	G	So	6'3"	25-2	9.8	3.2	1.5	0.9	0.8	43.8%	23.1%	1.6	64.9%	25.4%
6	Ubong-Abasi Etim	C	Sr	6'9"	31-0	7.4	1.2	1.5	0.2	0.2	51.5%	—	0.0	16.7%	12.1%
32	Garrett Shoemaker	F	Fr	6'9"	24-0	7.1	1.9	1.4	0.1	0.4	51.5%	29.4%	0.7	35.7%	20.5%
12	Ahmed Essahaty	G	Sr	6'2"	16-0	10.1	2.2	1.4	0.8	0.9	38.9%	21.1%	1.2	58.3%	21.1%
7	Seth Jones	G	Jr	6'1"	8-0	19.8	7.3	2.8	1.0	2.3	41.7%	27.9%	5.4	80.0%	30.3%
11	Amir Chaney	PG	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Cody Al-Naziat	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-6

Road

7-10

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −4.6

Covered the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

6-5

Road

6-11

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.5

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #221	A	W 82–78	+7.0	W+11.0	144.0	O160	110.2	104.8	74.4
Feb 28	NichollsAdjEM #250	A	L 60–68	+4.5	L−3.5	140.0	U128	91.8	104.0	65.4
Feb 23	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	H	L 68–73	+2.0	L−3.0	130.5	O141	105.2	112.9	64.7
Feb 21	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	H	L 75–96	+4.0	L−17.0	139.5	O171	117.5	150.4	63.8
Feb 16	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	A	L 53–70	+1.5	L−15.5	136.5	U123	78.2	103.3	67.7
Feb 14	N'Western StAdjEM #299	A	L 66–69	+1.0	L−2.0	131.0	O135	105.6	110.4	62.5
Feb 9	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	H	W 74–62	−1.0	W+11.0	137.5	U136	121.1	101.5	61.1
Feb 7	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	H	W 55–47	−4.5	W+3.5	133.5	U102	97.4	83.2	56.5
Feb 2	LamarAdjEM #236	A	L 54–73	+6.0	L−13.0	133.5	U127	89.0	120.3	60.7
Jan 31	SF AustinAdjEM #73	A	L 58–85	+9.5	L−17.5	135.5	O143	95.6	140.1	60.7

Ole Miss

Against the spread

Season

15-20

Home

4-12

Road

7-3

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.8

Covered 4 straightCovered 7 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

21-13-1

Home

11-5

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +9.2

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	#17ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	L 90–93 OT	+8.5	W+5.5	158.5	O183	115.8	119.7	77.7
Mar 13	#15AlabamaAdjEM #18	N	W 80–79	+12.5	W+13.5	164.5	U159	108.8	107.5	73.5
Mar 12	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	N	W 76–72	+5.5	W+9.5	156.5	U148	102.4	97.0	74.2
Mar 11	TexasAdjEM #38	N	W 76–66	+6.0	W+16.0	148.0	U142	109.1	94.7	69.7
Mar 7	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	H	L 61–64	−7.0	L−10.0	147.0	U125	92.0	96.5	66.3
Mar 3	#24VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	L 86–89 OT	+7.0	W+4.0	155.5	O175	111.7	115.6	77.0
Feb 28	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	W 85–79	+11.0	W+17.0	152.5	O164	127.0	118.0	67.0
Feb 25	LSUAdjEM #72	H	L 99–106 2OT	−2.0	L−9.0	147.0	O205	117.5	125.8	84.3
Feb 21	#12FloridaAdjEM #5	H	L 75–94	+13.5	L−5.5	150.5	O169	97.5	122.2	76.9
Feb 18	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	A	L 77–80	+9.5	W+6.5	155.0	O157	111.9	116.3	68.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SE LouisianaOle Miss

Efficiency

102.1

110.4

109.1

105.0

67.1

67.5

—

Shooting

46.7%

50.4%

49.4%

50.8%

28.4%

33.2%

68.4%

74.9%

40.3%

33.0%

Ball control & glass

18.4%

14.0%

19.1%

16.4%

28.6%

28.3%

31.4%

32.6%

10.1%

8.6%

9.7%

7.9%

Style

39.5%

35.5%

43.8%

39.5%

12.2%

12.1%

51.6%

50.2%

37.4%

40.2%

Roster

2.67

2.79

6'5.1"

6'4.3"

—

79.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SE Louisiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Ole Miss

Returning minutes: 79.3%Returning production: 75.1%

Lost

Malik Dia 24.3 mpg, 14.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
James Scott 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 3	2025-26	SE Louisiana 58 – 88 Ole Miss

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.