Utah Tech Trailblazers vs Utah State Aggies basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET · Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Non-conferenceYouTubeDee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Utah Tech
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #255
@
Utah State
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #23
Live
64.089.5
Projected score
UTU win 1%USU win 99%
MarketClose
Spread
USU −26.0
open USU −25.5
Total
156.5
open 153.5
Our line
USU −25.4
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USU −25.5 | 0.1 toward Utah Tech | USU −25.4 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Utah Tech is the faster team (76.5, #47 of 365) and Utah State the slower (72.4, #123). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.1
per team, 40 min
Market total
156.5
Market close · open 153.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.5#119
Utah Tech
71.1#142
Utah State
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
USU −25.4
Four factors +39.0 · not in these stats −13.6
From the four factors
Utah State has the ball+18.0
Utah Tech has the ball−21.0
Utah State has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 63.5% #16 · UTU allows 67.5% #353+16.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.5% #104 · UTU allows 29.6% #151+0.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.3% #157 · UTU forces 18.3% #159 · ~13 turnovers+0.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.2% #197 · UTU allows 40.0% #214 · FT 67.4% #223−0.1
Utah Tech has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 41.8% #310 · USU allows 36.1% #12−12.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 17.1% #350 · USU allows 28.6% #132−5.1
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.6% #232 · USU forces 20.7% #93 · ~15 turnovers−2.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 23.0% #324 · USU allows 31.1% #113 · FT 64.3% #267−1.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUtah Techoffense vsUtah Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah Tech shoots
24.4
9.8
14.6
51.2
Utah State allows
41.7
4.8
9.5
44.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 48.6%#64 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#16 | 37.5%#197 | 34.7% |
| Three | 21.2%#344 | 17.9%#7 | 32.5% |
Utah Stateoffense vsUtah Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah State shoots
60.2
5.7
6.8
27.3
Utah Tech allows
46.5
2.3
16.3
34.9
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.9%#73 | 80.0%#354 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 20.0%#275 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#16 | 42.9%#240 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.2%#143 | 44.0%#332 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUtah Tech
−9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365
Off reb %
17.1%
#350
Def reb %
70.4%
#151
Turnover %
19.6%
#232
Forced TO %
18.3%
#159
FT rate
23.0%
#324
FT allowed
40.0%
#214
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−4.8
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−3.8
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Utah State
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#93 of 365
Off reb %
35.5%
#104
Def reb %
71.4%
#132
Turnover %
17.3%
#157
Forced TO %
20.7%
#93
FT rate
35.2%
#197
FT allowed
31.1%
#113
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+1.8
Utah State has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#93 of 365) to Utah Tech’s −9.2 (#304).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notUtah Tech2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 4.5 | — | 9.6% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 67.9% | 40.0% | 7.5 | 50.0% | 33.6% | Active | |
| 35 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 25.0 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 22.8% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 19.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 69.2% | 30.8% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 40.5% | 33.3% | 4.5 | 71.4% | 31.5% | Active | |
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 19.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 15.0% | Active | |
| 17 | NA | — | — | 2-0 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 25.0% | 11.5% | Active | |
| 33 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 24.3% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 16.5% | Active | |
| 5 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 91.7% | 100.0% | 1.5 | — | 20.3% | Active | |
| 12 | C | Jr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 33.9% | Active | |
| 7 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.3% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 10.9% | Active |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUtah Tech
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −16.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +0.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | Grace University Lancers | H | W 103–52 | — | — | — | — | 140.8 | 71.1 | 73.2 |
| Nov 2 | New Mexico | A | L 60–100 | +23.5 | L−16.5 | 159.5 | O160 | 78.4 | 130.7 | 76.5 |
| Mar 13 | CA Baptist | N | L 72–86 | +8.0 | L−6.0 | 143.5 | O158 | 102.3 | 122.2 | 70.4 |
| Mar 12 | Abilene Chrstn | N | W 80–74 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 141.5 | O154 | 113.6 | 105.1 | 70.4 |
| Mar 7 | Utah Valley | H | L 101–104 2OT | +9.0 | W+6.0 | 148.0 | O205 | 118.6 | 122.1 | 85.2 |
| Feb 28 | Southern Utah | A | L 67–81 | −2.0 | L−16.0 | 156.0 | U148 | 101.0 | 122.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 26 | Abilene Chrstn | H | W 85–81 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 139.0 | O166 | 121.7 | 115.9 | 69.9 |
| Feb 21 | Tarleton St | A | W 80–72 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 141.0 | O152 | 123.4 | 111.1 | 64.8 |
| Feb 19 | UT Arlington | A | L 50–63 | +4.5 | L−8.5 | 140.5 | U113 | 81.7 | 103.0 | 61.2 |
| Feb 14 | CA Baptist | H | W 70–65 | +3.5 | W+8.5 | 143.5 | U135 | 108.9 | 101.1 | 64.3 |
Utah State
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +7.0
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −2.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Omaha | H | W 90–56 | −29.0 | W+5.0 | 153.5 | U146 | 123.6 | 76.9 | 72.8 |
| Nov 2 | Idaho St | H | W 94–58 | −27.0 | W+9.0 | 150.0 | O152 | 130.7 | 80.6 | 71.9 |
| Mar 22 | #1Arizona | N | L 66–78 | +11.5 | L−0.5 | 154.0 | U144 | 102.5 | 121.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 20 | #8Villanova | N | W 86–76 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 147.5 | O162 | 126.2 | 111.5 | 68.1 |
| Mar 14 | San Diego St | N | W 73–62 | −2.5 | W+8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 111.8 | 95.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | Nevada | N | W 79–66 | −6.5 | W+6.5 | 144.5 | O145 | 108.1 | 90.3 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | UNLV | N | W 80–60 | −8.5 | W+11.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 114.6 | 86.0 | 69.8 |
| Mar 7 | New Mexico | H | W 94–90 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 135.8 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 3 | UNLV | A | L 65–92 | −7.5 | L−34.5 | 156.5 | O157 | 92.5 | 130.9 | 70.3 |
| Feb 28 | Grand Canyon | H | W 74–69 | −9.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | U143 | 116.4 | 108.5 | 63.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUtah TechUtah State
Efficiency
103.9
115.7
109.8
97.3
71.5
71.1
16.4
-11.1
Shooting
41.8%
63.5%
53.6%
69.0%
21.2%
34.2%
64.3%
67.4%
23.0%
35.2%
Ball control & glass
19.6%
17.3%
18.3%
20.7%
17.1%
35.5%
29.6%
28.6%
13.1%
12.4%
7.1%
7.1%
Style
54.1%
31.1%
30.0%
60.9%
8.3%
21.2%
50.0%
69.0%
38.3%
33.5%
Roster
2.80
3.15
6'5.1"
6'5.6"
21.9%
25.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUtah Tech
Returning minutes: 21.9%Returning production: 30.7%
Lost
- Noah Bolanga 32.7 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Abilene Chrstn
- Chance Trujillo 31.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Hawai'i
- Jusaun Holt 30.8 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tanner Davis 25.9 mpg, 7.2 ppg · transferred to Utah Valley
- Britton Berrett 23.0 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Madiba Owona 10.9 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Rex Sunderland from Stonehill · 26.9 mpg, 4.7 ppg last season
- Alex Dupre from Portland St · 14.9 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Mark Brown Jr. from Valparaiso · 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Kyle Lemke no D1 minutes last season
- Jax Clark no D1 minutes last season
- Aris Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season
Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Utah State
Returning minutes: 25.5%Returning production: 30.2%
Lost
- MJ Collins Jr. 30.8 mpg, 17.5 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Drake Allen 24.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kolby King 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Adlan Elamin 18.9 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Garry Clark 16.6 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Perryman 13.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
Added
- AJ Bates from Louisiana Tech · 33.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Dallin Hall from Virginia · 28.4 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Solomon Callaghan from Wright St · 26.5 mpg, 9.6 ppg last season
- Will Hornseth from Northern Iowa · 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Collin Mulholland from Chattanooga · 12.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Connor Turnbull from Evansville · 10.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -26.5→-25.5-112 | 153.5→156.5o-112 u-108 | — | +3500 |
| FanDuel | -25.5-110 | 153.5→156.5o-105 u-115 | — | +3500 |
| BetMGM | -26.5→-25.5-115 | 153.5→156.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -25.5-120 | 155.5→156.5o-113 u-110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -26.5→-26-110 | 153.5→156o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -25.5→-26-110 | 153→156o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -26-107 | 153.5→156.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -26.5→-26-105 | 154.5→156o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -26.5→-25.5-105 | 153.5→156.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -26.5→-25.5-120 | 154.5→156.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 155.5o-104 u+100 | — | +4900 |
| Polymarket | -25.5-104 | 153.5→155.5o-104 u+100 | — | — |
| Novig | -25.5+100 | 155.5o-104 u+100 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 10
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.