CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFoster Pavilion, Waco, TX

Yale

Efficiency #57

2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf

Baylor

Efficiency #55

2025-26: 17-17 · 6-13 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

75.4

win 36%

Projected

79.5

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: BAY −4.1 · total 154.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Baylor 68.6, Yale 66.6 → 66.9 possessions

−3.1

Baylor offense vs Yale defense

+5.0

Yale offense vs Baylor defense

+4.8

Projected total

154.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Baylor offense vs Yale defense

+5.0

Yale offense vs Baylor defense

−4.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Baylor by 4.1

4.1

Yale side ◂▸ Baylor side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.0 against +4.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Baylor.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Baylor is the faster team (69.3, #126 of 365) and Yale the slower (65.6, #315). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.9

model

Projected team totals

75.4 / 79.5

Yale / Baylor

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#316

Yale

68.6#155

Baylor

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageYale

Where Yale scores: shooting

Yale shoots an effective 55.6% (#26); Baylor allows 52.4% (#237). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversYale

Yale protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for Yale's offense.

AdvantageBaylor

Where Baylor scores: the offensive glass

Baylor rebounds 36.9% of its own misses (#18); Yale lets opponents grab 29.7% of their own misses (#147). Expect about 34.6%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Yale) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Yale at about 33.9% of its shots from three, Baylor about 43.1%.

GlassYale

Yale owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.5% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Yale's offense.

ClashYale

Style match: 3-point volume

Yale rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); Baylor runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.9% — both habits push the same way.

Yale has the ball

OffenseBaylor allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

52.4% #237

+4.4 pt/100

14.0% #22

15.9% #226

+2.7 pt/100

34.2% #62

31.3% #219

+1.9 pt/100

35.1% #172

30.1% #61

-0.4 pt/100

74.6% #100

—

+0.2 pt/100

Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.8 pts/100

Baylor has the ball

OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg

53.4% #84

51.7% #192

+2.1 pt/100

16.3% #154

16.3% #204

+0.8 pt/100

36.9% #18

29.7% #147

+2.6 pt/100

34.1% #202

26.8% #19

-0.7 pt/100

73.5% #155

—

+0.1 pt/100

Baylor net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Yaleoffense vsBaylordefense

Share of shots by zone

Yale shoots

41.9

5.8

15.6

36.7

Baylor allows

26.3

16.6

22.4

34.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#107	65.9%#358	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#28	47.6%#336	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#133	38.9%#199	38.0%
Three	39.4%#3	34.8%#240	33.7%

Bayloroffense vsYaledefense

Share of shots by zone

Baylor shoots

28.4

13.1

18.9

39.6

Yale allows

35.7

4.5

15.7

44.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#55	57.9%#147	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.3%#47	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.5%#29	41.0%#277	38.0%
Three	33.9%#179	35.0%#250	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Yale

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365

Off reb %

34.2%

#62

Def reb %

70.3%

#147

Turnover %

14.0%

#22

Forced TO %

16.3%

#204

FT rate

35.1%

#172

FT allowed

26.8%

#19

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Baylor

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365

Off reb %

36.9%

#18

Def reb %

68.7%

#219

Turnover %

16.3%

#154

Forced TO %

15.9%

#226

FT rate

34.1%

#202

FT allowed

30.1%

#61

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to Baylor’s +2.7 (#65).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Baylor2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Tounde Yessoufou	G	Fr	6'5"	34-34	32.7	17.8	5.9	1.6	1.9	52.0%	29.3%	5.3	74.6%	31.8%
5	Obi Agbim	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.3	10.7	2.7	3.1	1.1	49.7%	35.6%	6.6	85.4%	19.7%
10	Isaac Williams IV	G	So	6'1"	34-14	25.0	10.4	2.2	3.3	1.6	61.5%	47.1%	1.5	68.4%	22.5%
44	Caden Powell	C	Sr	6'9"	34-20	24.4	6.9	6.3	1.3	1.1	67.2%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	14.6%
12	Michael Rataj	G	Sr	6'8"	34-19	23.1	7.2	4.6	1.7	1.4	45.2%	21.8%	1.6	70.7%	21.3%
0	Dan Skillings Jr.	G	Sr	6'6"	29-16	25.5	9.4	5.7	2.0	1.2	49.6%	29.7%	2.6	71.2%	22.6%
46	James Nnaji	C	Fr	7'0"	18-0	8.2	1.4	2.1	0.2	0.4	69.2%	—	0.0	57.1%	11.2%
2	Will Kuykendall	G	So	6'2"	9-0	3.7	2.0	0.3	0.1	0.6	61.5%	44.4%	1.0	100.0%	30.1%
1	JJ White	G	Sr	6'1"	4-0	6.5	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	12.5%
3	Drew Perry	G	Fr	5'10"	9-0	2.7	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.2	42.9%	28.6%	0.8	66.7%	26.0%
13	James Goodis	G	Jr	6'0"	3-0	2.7	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	12.8%
7	Andre Iguodala II	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Juslin Bodo Bodo	C	Jr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Maikcol Perez	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Mayo Soyoye	C	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Yale

Against the spread

Season

12-17

Home

4-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-7

Road

7-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.8

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 67–68	−4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U135	103.0	104.5	65.1
Mar 15	PennAdjEM #162	N	L 84–88 OT	−9.5	L−13.5	144.0	O172	116.1	121.7	72.3
Mar 14	CornellAdjEM #135	N	W 88–76	−3.5	W+8.5	163.5	O164	144.9	125.2	60.7
Mar 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 78–53	−14.0	W+11.0	137.0	U131	117.2	79.6	66.6
Feb 28	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 60–54	−6.5	L−0.5	146.0	U114	98.9	89.0	60.7
Feb 27	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 69–72	−4.0	L−7.0	164.0	U141	107.4	112.1	64.3
Feb 21	PennAdjEM #162	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	149.5	U144	111.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	W 76–75 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	139.5	O151	115.8	114.2	65.7
Feb 13	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 83–70	−10.0	W+3.0	151.5	O153	121.5	102.5	68.3
Feb 9	HowardAdjEM #160	A	W 87–81 OT	−7.0	L−1.0	147.5	O168	120.7	112.4	72.1

Baylor

Against the spread

Season

14-18-1

Home

6-9-1

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

11-5

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 69–82	−1.5	L−14.5	159.5	U151	98.5	117.1	70.0
Apr 1	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	N	W 67–48	−3.5	W+15.5	146.5	U115	112.7	80.7	59.5
Mar 10	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	L 79–83	−5.0	L−9.0	152.5	O162	111.6	117.3	70.8
Mar 7	UtahAdjEM #177	H	W 101–75	−12.0	W+14.0	148.5	O176	159.9	118.7	63.2
Mar 4	#7HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 64–77	+13.5	W+0.5	144.5	U141	98.2	118.2	65.2
Feb 28	UCFAdjEM #70	A	W 87–86	+1.5	W+2.5	159.0	O173	131.3	129.8	66.2
Feb 24	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 80–87	+7.0	P0.0	155.5	O167	122.2	132.9	65.4
Feb 21	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 73–68	−8.5	L−3.5	158.0	U141	111.6	104.0	65.4
Feb 17	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	L 74–90	−3.5	L−19.5	159.0	O164	91.3	111.1	81.0
Feb 14	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 71–82	+7.0	L−4.0	161.5	U153	104.6	120.8	67.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

YaleBaylor

Efficiency

116.5

116.4

108.1

107.6

66.6

68.6

—

Shooting

55.6%

53.4%

53.6%

55.2%

39.4%

33.9%

74.6%

73.5%

35.1%

34.1%

Ball control & glass

14.0%

16.3%

15.9%

34.2%

36.9%

29.7%

31.3%

7.7%

9.7%

9.1%

8.8%

Style

36.1%

39.7%

44.4%

44.8%

9.8%

13.6%

56.0%

52.2%

29.0%

22.3%

Roster

2.73

3.01

6'5.5"

6'5.3"

84.0%

83.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Yale

Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%

Lost

Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Baylor

Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.9%

Lost

Cameron Carr 33.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Maikcol Perez no D1 minutes last season
Mayo Soyoye no D1 minutes last season
Andre Iguodala II no D1 minutes last season
Juslin Bodo Bodo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.