Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET · First Bank & Trust Arena, Brookings, SD
Non-conferenceFirst Bank & Trust Arena, Brookings, SD
Valparaiso
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #119
@
S Dakota St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #156
Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET
69.573.0
Projected score
VAL win 38%SDST win 62%
Consensus
Spread
VAL −2.25
open VAL −2.25
Total
142.5
open 142.5
Our line
SDST −3.6
ML Valparaiso
-140
ML S Dakota St
+118
Median of 7 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
S Dakota Strated 0.3 below average
−0.3
Valparaisorated 0.3 above average
−0.3
Home court
+4.2
Our line
SDST −3.6
◂ Valparaiso sideS Dakota St side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward S Dakota St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, S Dakota St is the faster team (66.9, #295 of 365) and Valparaiso the slower (65.1, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
142.5
Consensus · open 142.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#319
Valparaiso
68.2#321
S Dakota St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
SDST −3.6
Four factors −5.9 · not in these stats +9.5
From the four factors
S Dakota St has the ball−5.7
Valparaiso has the ball+0.3
S Dakota St has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 20.0% #333 · VAL allows 28.0% #124−3.9
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 52.6% #145 · VAL allows 42.2% #45−2.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.0% #85 · VAL forces 18.4% #155 · ~11 turnovers+1.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.8% #325 · VAL allows 47.8% #287 · FT 61.5% #293−0.5
Valparaiso has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.3% #31 · SDST forces 17.9% #180 · ~10 turnovers+2.9
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.6% #255 · SDST allows 23.1% #43−2.7
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.7% #157 · SDST allows 49.1% #151+0.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 48.8% #64 · SDST allows 34.0% #152 · FT 64.4% #2660.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootValparaisooffense vsS Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Valparaiso shoots
30.3
11.9
18.3
39.4
S Dakota St allows
32.1
7.5
7.5
52.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.6%#113 | 52.9%#108 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.2%#123 | 75.0%#336 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 55.0%#39 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.6%#295 | 28.6%#99 | 32.5% |
S Dakota Stoffense vsValparaisodefense
Share of shots by zone
S Dakota St shoots
38.6
8.8
10.5
42.1
Valparaiso allows
31.7
12.9
17.8
37.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 56.3%#153 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.0%#153 | 61.5%#315 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#174 | 11.1%#30 | 34.7% |
| Three | 41.7%#45 | 21.4%#18 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineValparaiso
+4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365
Off reb %
27.6%
#255
Def reb %
72.0%
#124
Turnover %
12.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#155
FT rate
48.8%
#64
FT allowed
47.8%
#287
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+4.2
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+3.0
Foul shots allowed−2.6
S Dakota St
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#197 of 365
Off reb %
20.0%
#333
Def reb %
76.9%
#43
Turnover %
15.0%
#85
Forced TO %
17.9%
#180
FT rate
22.8%
#325
FT allowed
34.0%
#152
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.8
Defensive rebounding+2.8
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−3.8
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Valparaiso has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.8 (#112 of 365) to S Dakota St’s −1.5 (#197).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notValparaiso2026-27 numbers · last game: Purdue, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-2 | 32.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 22.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 67.2% | 41.7% | 6.0 | 60.0% | 34.1% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 31.5 | 35 | — | Started last | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 55.6% | 20.1% | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 25 | — | Started last | 14.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 61.5% | 32.7% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 26 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 44.4% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 66.7% | 12.7% | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'11" | 2-2 | 25.0 | 20 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 0.0% | 20.2% | |
| 44 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 24.0 | 17 | — | Bench | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 7.5% | |
| 23 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-0 | 18.5 | 14 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 40.0% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 23.0% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 6.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 63.6% | 32.4% | |
| 12 | C | Jr | 7'0" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 15 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 21.6% | |
| 14 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 6 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 5.4% | |
| 15 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 36.2% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'3" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 32 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesValparaiso
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +13.0
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +9.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Purdue | A | W 83–80 2OT | +19.5 | W+22.5 | 144.0 | O163 | 107.2 | 103.4 | 77.4 |
| Nov 2 | W Illinois | H | W 80–58 | −18.5 | W+3.5 | 139.0 | U138 | 115.6 | 83.8 | 69.2 |
| Mar 6 | Bradley | N | L 84–90 2OT | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 138.5 | O174 | 95.8 | 102.6 | 87.7 |
| Mar 5 | Indiana St | N | W 63–62 | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 142.0 | U125 | 105.6 | 103.9 | 59.7 |
| Feb 28 | Evansville | A | L 79–80 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 116.4 | 117.9 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | Drake | H | W 74–71 | −3.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | U145 | 116.3 | 111.6 | 63.6 |
| Feb 21 | UIC | A | W 71–67 | +7.0 | W+11.0 | 138.5 | U138 | 110.6 | 104.3 | 64.2 |
| Feb 18 | Bradley | H | W 79–72 | +2.5 | W+9.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 119.0 | 108.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 15 | Indiana St | H | W 76–75 | −5.0 | L−4.0 | 145.0 | O151 | 124.4 | 122.8 | 61.1 |
| Feb 12 | Illinois St | A | L 64–86 | +9.0 | L−13.0 | 138.5 | O150 | 93.6 | 125.8 | 68.4 |
S Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +13.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −25.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Briar Cliff Chargers | H | W 71–49 | — | — | — | — | 99.9 | 68.9 | 71.1 |
| Nov 3 | Kansas St | A | W 68–66 | +11.0 | W+13.0 | 159.0 | U134 | 101.7 | 98.7 | 66.9 |
| Mar 5 | St Thomas | N | L 67–80 | +5.0 | L−8.0 | 150.0 | U147 | 104.3 | 124.5 | 64.3 |
| Feb 28 | South Dakota | A | L 70–75 | −3.0 | L−8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 100.8 | 108.0 | 69.4 |
| Feb 26 | Kansas City | A | W 73–59 | −12.0 | W+2.0 | 151.0 | U132 | 113.8 | 92.0 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | North Dakota | H | W 91–83 | −8.0 | P0.0 | 151.5 | O174 | 138.3 | 126.2 | 65.8 |
| Feb 18 | N Dakota St | H | L 66–74 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 147.0 | U140 | 100.8 | 113.0 | 65.5 |
| Feb 14 | Oral Roberts | A | W 87–69 | −5.5 | W+12.5 | 147.5 | O156 | 131.5 | 104.3 | 66.2 |
| Feb 12 | Denver | A | L 61–79 | −2.0 | L−20.0 | 160.5 | U140 | 96.2 | 124.5 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | South Dakota | H | L 67–68 | −11.5 | L−12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 69.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeValparaisoS Dakota St
Efficiency
106.1
106.0
101.9
105.4
68.2
68.2
-0.9
2.3
Shooting
51.7%
52.6%
59.0%
45.5%
25.6%
41.7%
64.4%
61.5%
48.8%
22.8%
Ball control & glass
12.3%
15.0%
18.4%
17.9%
27.6%
20.0%
28.0%
23.1%
8.2%
9.0%
2.6%
9.1%
Style
35.5%
42.1%
44.2%
38.2%
8.6%
8.8%
40.4%
48.0%
36.9%
30.5%
Roster
2.20
2.25
6'5.9"
6'4.9"
47.4%
34.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputValparaiso
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 50.3%
Lost
- Owen Dease 26.9 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shon Tupuola 24.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Murray St
- Brody Whitaker 24.4 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Barnes 11.7 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mark Brown Jr. 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · transferred to Utah Tech
- Tucker Tornatta 7.2 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Bellarmine
Added
- Bruno Alocen from Indiana St · 21.3 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Kai Yu from Bradley · 7.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
- Hudson Scroggins no D1 minutes last season
- Kobe Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Dylan Moles no D1 minutes last season
- Justin Curry II no D1 minutes last season
Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
S Dakota St
Returning minutes: 42.4%Returning production: 41.3%
Lost
- Jaden Jackson 32.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to Georgia St
- Matthew Mors 27.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Damon Wilkinson 24.0 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
- Luke Haertle 14.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bubz Alvarez 9.8 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Hou Christian
- Caleb Delzell 7.8 mpg, 1.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- EJ Ryans from W Michigan · 27.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Myles Thompson from SIUE · 7.2 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- Jon Mekonnen from Colorado St · 1.6 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Semaj Stampley no D1 minutes last season
- Davis Kern no D1 minutes last season
- Blake Ellwein no D1 minutes last season
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2.5-118 | 142.5o-110 u-110 | +120 | -142 |
| BetMGM | +1.5-105 | 142.5o-110 u-110 | +115 | -140 |
| Caesars | — | 142.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | +2-110 | 142.5o-110 u-110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline | +2-110 | 142.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +2.5-120 | 142.5o-110 u-110 | +120 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5-120 | 142.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5-122 | 142.5o-113 u-113 | +122 | -133 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +122 | -138 |
| Novig | +1.5-122 | 142.5o-113 u-111 | +117 | -133 |
DraftKings
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.