CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGlobal Credit Union Arena, Phoenix, AZ

Cal Poly

Efficiency #240

2025-26: 14-19 · 10-11 conf

Grand Canyon

Efficiency #65

2025-26: 20-12 · 13-8 conf

Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

71.9

win 15%

Projected

84.1

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: GCU −12.3 · total 156.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Grand Canyon 68.8, Cal Poly 72.8 → 73.2 possessions

+10.7

Grand Canyon offense vs Cal Poly defense

+2.6

Cal Poly offense vs Grand Canyon defense

−5.5

Projected total

156.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Grand Canyon offense vs Cal Poly defense

+2.6

Cal Poly offense vs Grand Canyon defense

+5.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

Grand Canyon by 12.3

12.3

Cal Poly side ◂▸ Grand Canyon side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Grand Canyon.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cal Poly is the faster team (76.1, #1 of 365) and Grand Canyon the slower (69.0, #150). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

73.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.0

model

Projected team totals

71.9 / 84.1

Cal Poly / Grand Canyon

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.8#1

Cal Poly

68.8#139

Grand Canyon

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Grand Canyon averages 69.0 possessions per 40, Cal Poly 76.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageCal Poly

Where Cal Poly struggles: ball control

Cal Poly turns it over on 19.9% of possessions (#346); Grand Canyon forces turnovers on 17.3% of opponent possessions (#129). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageGrand Canyon

Where Grand Canyon scores: shooting

Grand Canyon shoots an effective 51.7% (#162); Cal Poly allows 53.8% (#292). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

GlassCal Poly

Cal Poly gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Cal Poly's offense.

ClashCal Poly

Style match: paint scoring

Cal Poly gets only 38.5% of its points in the paint; Grand Canyon protects the paint (38.0% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.1% — both habits push the same way.

Cal Poly has the ball

OffenseGrand Canyon allowsvs D1 avg

51.5% #170

47.4% #28

-2.6 pt/100

19.9% #346

17.3% #129

-2.6 pt/100

30.0% #202

25.3% #12

-1.7 pt/100

34.9% #182

39.0% #285

+0.3 pt/100

78.5% #12

—

+0.5 pt/100

Cal Poly net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100

Grand Canyon has the ball

OffenseCal Poly allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #162

53.8% #292

+2.2 pt/100

17.6% #246

16.2% #209

-0.2 pt/100

31.3% #150

29.6% #141

+0.2 pt/100

39.5% #67

34.1% #154

+0.2 pt/100

75.3% #72

—

+0.3 pt/100

Grand Canyon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Cal Polyoffense vsGrand Canyondefense

Share of shots by zone

Cal Poly shoots

38.2

3.5

4.4

53.9

Grand Canyon allows

36.3

5.9

19.8

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.7%#209	51.6%#12	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.0%#148	34.4%#50	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.5%#357	42.6%#320	38.0%
Three	33.0%#228	31.9%#60	33.7%

Grand Canyonoffense vsCal Polydefense

Share of shots by zone

Grand Canyon shoots

41.1

4.2

16.2

38.5

Cal Poly allows

41.3

5.9

12.5

40.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#104	61.5%#284	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#345	35.5%#72	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#240	41.2%#282	38.0%
Three	31.8%#286	34.7%#231	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Cal Poly

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#270 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#202

Def reb %

70.4%

#141

Turnover %

19.9%

#346

Forced TO %

16.2%

#209

FT rate

34.9%

#182

FT allowed

34.1%

#154

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Grand Canyon

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#96 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#150

Def reb %

74.7%

#12

Turnover %

17.6%

#246

Forced TO %

17.3%

#129

FT rate

39.5%

#67

FT allowed

39.0%

#285

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Grand Canyon has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#96 of 365) to Cal Poly’s −2.0 (#270).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cal Poly2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hamad Mousa	G	So	6'8"	32-30	31.4	20.4	6.3	2.0	2.5	53.9%	37.2%	7.1	87.8%	32.2%
9	Peter Bandelj	G	So	6'4"	32-32	30.8	13.0	4.0	3.3	2.4	50.8%	34.7%	5.2	85.2%	23.5%
14	Cayden Ward	G	So	6'5"	33-31	29.4	14.5	6.3	1.6	2.9	53.5%	31.0%	5.2	75.3%	27.6%
5	Guzman Vasilic	G	So	6'4"	30-17	23.2	7.6	2.4	1.1	1.0	54.2%	37.1%	5.0	77.8%	17.4%
3	Jake Davis	G	Jr	6'4"	32-18	21.1	5.4	3.1	1.8	1.3	41.8%	26.0%	3.3	72.5%	18.1%
11	Austin Goode	F	Fr	6'7"	32-16	16.3	5.2	2.5	0.9	0.8	51.4%	30.9%	2.5	73.7%	18.1%
7	Ali Assran	F	Fr	6'9"	31-5	12.7	3.5	3.4	0.7	1.2	46.6%	21.4%	0.9	59.6%	19.5%
13	Troy Plumtree	F	Fr	6'6"	30-2	12.2	4.8	2.4	0.7	1.1	57.5%	22.6%	1.0	66.7%	22.4%
4	Kieran Elliott	G	Jr	6'6"	18-10	16.9	4.9	3.2	0.6	0.6	54.8%	35.0%	1.1	82.6%	14.5%
8	Jackson Mosley	PG	Jr	5'10"	17-0	12.5	5.6	1.2	0.8	0.4	47.6%	29.2%	2.8	70.8%	24.7%
21	Luka Tarlac	G	Sr	6'7"	12-3	15.1	3.0	1.8	2.1	1.5	46.7%	18.2%	0.9	53.3%	16.3%
15	Aaron Price Jr.	PF	Sr	6'8"	21-1	6.1	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.4	59.1%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%
1	Jess Esso Essis	G	Fr	6'10"	7-0	17.4	8.6	3.6	1.0	1.6	61.9%	41.4%	4.1	88.9%	25.5%
0	Jason Scott	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	50.0%	57.1%	0.9	62.5%	23.5%
22	Eric Brown	F	Jr	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	21.1%
2	Braden Freeman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nana Owusu-Anane	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	32.5	9.3	8.5	1.8	1.2	52.1%	35.9%	3.7	72.6%	17.2%
2	Makaih Williams	G	Jr	6'2"	32-20	27.1	14.0	2.7	2.5	1.7	51.3%	33.5%	5.2	78.6%	30.3%
5	Brian Moore Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	29-28	27.6	9.5	2.4	2.6	1.6	54.0%	40.8%	1.7	69.7%	20.7%
8	Dusty Stromer	G	Jr	6'6"	32-5	22.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	1.0	45.7%	33.3%	3.6	80.0%	19.1%
17	Efe Demirel	C	Fr	7'1"	32-28	22.5	8.5	5.3	0.3	1.3	63.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.0%
11	Caleb Shaw	G	Jr	6'6"	21-11	20.9	7.8	3.8	1.4	1.3	58.8%	37.0%	3.5	64.7%	21.7%
32	Wilhelm Breidenbach	F	Sr	6'10"	29-4	12.4	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.6	41.3%	13.3%	1.0	80.6%	15.3%
14	Dennis Evans	C	Fr	7'2"	24-0	8.8	2.8	2.0	0.0	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	75.0%	15.8%
22	Kaleb Smith	F	Jr	6'10"	21-0	8.4	1.4	1.2	0.3	0.4	21.1%	10.5%	0.9	77.8%	17.6%
9	Evan Boisdur	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	5.6	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	33.3%	16.7%	0.9	75.0%	21.2%
23	Cole Pepe	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	17.1%
3	Braylon Johnson	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Jack Sawyer	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Luke Shaw	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cal Poly2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hamad Mousa	G	So	6'8"	32-30	31.4	20.4	6.3	2.0	2.5	53.9%	37.2%	7.1	87.8%	32.2%
9	Peter Bandelj	G	So	6'4"	32-32	30.8	13.0	4.0	3.3	2.4	50.8%	34.7%	5.2	85.2%	23.5%
14	Cayden Ward	G	So	6'5"	33-31	29.4	14.5	6.3	1.6	2.9	53.5%	31.0%	5.2	75.3%	27.6%
5	Guzman Vasilic	G	So	6'4"	30-17	23.2	7.6	2.4	1.1	1.0	54.2%	37.1%	5.0	77.8%	17.4%
3	Jake Davis	G	Jr	6'4"	32-18	21.1	5.4	3.1	1.8	1.3	41.8%	26.0%	3.3	72.5%	18.1%
11	Austin Goode	F	Fr	6'7"	32-16	16.3	5.2	2.5	0.9	0.8	51.4%	30.9%	2.5	73.7%	18.1%
7	Ali Assran	F	Fr	6'9"	31-5	12.7	3.5	3.4	0.7	1.2	46.6%	21.4%	0.9	59.6%	19.5%
13	Troy Plumtree	F	Fr	6'6"	30-2	12.2	4.8	2.4	0.7	1.1	57.5%	22.6%	1.0	66.7%	22.4%
4	Kieran Elliott	G	Jr	6'6"	18-10	16.9	4.9	3.2	0.6	0.6	54.8%	35.0%	1.1	82.6%	14.5%
8	Jackson Mosley	PG	Jr	5'10"	17-0	12.5	5.6	1.2	0.8	0.4	47.6%	29.2%	2.8	70.8%	24.7%
21	Luka Tarlac	G	Sr	6'7"	12-3	15.1	3.0	1.8	2.1	1.5	46.7%	18.2%	0.9	53.3%	16.3%
15	Aaron Price Jr.	PF	Sr	6'8"	21-1	6.1	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.4	59.1%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%
1	Jess Esso Essis	G	Fr	6'10"	7-0	17.4	8.6	3.6	1.0	1.6	61.9%	41.4%	4.1	88.9%	25.5%
0	Jason Scott	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	50.0%	57.1%	0.9	62.5%	23.5%
22	Eric Brown	F	Jr	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	21.1%
2	Braden Freeman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Cal Poly

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

7-4-1

Road

9-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-6

Road

11-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +0.3

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	N	L 69–72	+4.5	W+1.5	163.0	U141	94.2	98.3	73.2
Mar 7	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	H	W 108–76	−9.0	W+23.0	173.0	O184	131.0	92.2	82.5
Mar 5	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 85–107	+9.5	L−12.5	160.5	O192	108.1	136.1	78.6
Feb 28	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 64–80	+7.5	L−8.5	164.0	U144	91.2	114.0	70.2
Feb 26	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	W 102–92	−5.5	W+4.5	161.5	O194	127.1	114.6	80.3
Feb 19	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	A	W 86–75	+11.0	W+22.0	161.0	P161	104.3	91.0	82.4
Feb 14	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	H	W 89–79	+4.5	W+14.5	159.0	O168	133.5	118.5	66.7
Feb 12	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	W 79–73	+5.5	W+11.5	161.0	U152	99.2	91.7	79.6
Feb 7	UC DavisAdjEM #185	A	L 58–67	+6.0	L−3.0	169.0	U125	83.6	96.6	69.4
Feb 5	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 96–97	+2.5	W+1.5	178.5	O193	120.5	121.7	79.7

Grand Canyon

Against the spread

Season

17-15

Home

9-8

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

7-10

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	NevadaAdjEM #71	N	L 80–84	−3.5	L−7.5	137.5	O164	113.6	119.3	70.4
Mar 7	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 85–60	−12.5	W+12.5	150.0	U145	117.0	82.6	72.7
Mar 3	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 86–60	−19.0	W+7.0	143.0	O146	125.3	87.4	68.7
Feb 28	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 69–74	+9.5	W+4.5	148.0	U143	108.5	116.4	63.6
Feb 25	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 80–67	−7.5	W+5.5	150.5	U147	115.1	96.4	69.5
Feb 21	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	L 65–70	−8.5	L−13.5	144.5	U135	96.3	103.7	67.5
Feb 17	San Diego StAdjEM #53	A	W 73–63	+8.0	W+18.0	139.0	U136	102.5	88.4	71.2
Feb 14	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 94–79	−11.5	W+3.5	139.0	O173	144.7	121.6	65.0
Feb 11	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	L 64–70	−1.5	L−7.5	149.0	U134	93.4	102.1	68.5
Feb 7	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 78–80	−3.5	L−5.5	149.0	O158	108.6	111.4	71.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Cal PolyGrand Canyon

Efficiency

108.0

109.0

111.4

101.5

72.8

68.8

—

Shooting

51.5%

51.7%

53.7%

54.2%

33.0%

31.8%

78.5%

75.3%

34.9%

39.5%

Ball control & glass

19.9%

17.6%

16.2%

17.3%

30.0%

31.3%

29.6%

25.3%

9.5%

9.3%

11.4%

7.9%

Style

52.6%

38.9%

38.5%

43.2%

16.1%

13.9%

49.6%

32.1%

29.1%

Roster

2.06

3.03

6'5.6"

6'6.7"

—

84.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Cal Poly

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Grand Canyon

Returning minutes: 84.3%Returning production: 79.1%

Lost

Jaden Henley 31.5 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Luke Shaw no D1 minutes last season
Jack Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
Braylon Johnson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.