CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJames T. Morris Arena, Indianapolis, IN
S Indiana
Efficiency #333
2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf
@
IU Indy
Efficiency #315
2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · 6:30 PM ET
75.4
win 32%
Projected
80.9
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: IUIN −5.5 · total 156.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: IU Indy 72.5, S Indiana 68.6 → 72.7 possessions
+9.5
IU Indy offense vs S Indiana defense
−0.1
S Indiana offense vs IU Indy defense
−1.4
Projected total
156.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
IU Indy offense vs S Indiana defense
−0.1
S Indiana offense vs IU Indy defense
+1.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
IU Indy by 5.5
5.5
S Indiana side ◂▸ IU Indy side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.2 against a projected 156.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help IU Indy.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, IU Indy is the faster team (74.9, #4 of 365) and S Indiana the slower (68.4, #175). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.3
model
Projected team totals
75.4 / 80.9
S Indiana / IU Indy
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#162
S Indiana
72.5#2
IU Indy

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
IU Indy averages 74.9 possessions per 40, S Indiana 68.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageS Indiana
Where S Indiana struggles: ball control
S Indiana turns it over on 17.2% of possessions (#216); IU Indy forces turnovers on 19.2% of opponent possessions (#41). Expect about 18.5%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (S Indiana, IU Indy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect S Indiana at about 37.3% of its shots from three, IU Indy about 33.6%.
GlassS Indiana
S Indiana owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.6% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for S Indiana's offense.
ClashIU Indy
Style match: paint scoring
IU Indy scores 48.0% of its points in the paint; S Indiana gives up 49.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.4% — both habits push the same way.
ClashIU Indy
Style clash: ball movement
IU Indy assists on 61.9% of its made baskets; S Indiana breaks up passing offenses (assists on 40.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
S Indiana has the ball
OffenseIU Indy allowsvs D1 avg
43.7% #363
58.2% #362
-1.2 pt/100
17.2% #216
19.2% #41
-2.2 pt/100
31.4% #145
35.6% #348
+2.0 pt/100
37.2% #123
46.6% #356
+1.0 pt/100
66.6% #347
—
-0.5 pt/100
S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100
IU Indy has the ball
OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #136
49.4% #80
-0.6 pt/100
15.9% #127
16.4% #190
+0.9 pt/100
28.7% #243
33.8% #315
+0.3 pt/100
21.7% #365
36.2% #212
-0.7 pt/100
72.1% #204
—
-0.0 pt/100
IU Indy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
S Indianaoffense vsIU Indydefense
Share of shots by zone
S Indiana shoots
IU Indy allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.4%#36364.3%#34358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.0%#34241.8%#22839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.8%#35538.4%#17338.0%
Three29.9%#34538.5%#36133.7%
IU Indyoffense vsS Indianadefense
Share of shots by zone
IU Indy shoots
S Indiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.5%#6256.3%#9258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.3%#1133.3%#3139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.0%#22335.6%#9438.0%
Three32.4%#25834.1%#19333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
S Indiana
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#145
Def reb %
66.2%
#315
Turnover %
17.2%
#216
Forced TO %
16.4%
#190
FT rate
37.2%
#123
FT allowed
36.2%
#212
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2
IU Indy
−6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#243
Def reb %
64.4%
#348
Turnover %
15.9%
#127
Forced TO %
19.2%
#41
FT rate
21.7%
#365
FT allowed
46.6%
#356
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−3.4
Foul shots allowed−2.9

S Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#217 of 365) to IU Indy’s −6.2 (#358).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

S Indiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Ismail HabibGSr6'1"27-2332.414.73.62.82.447.2%33.0%6.968.8%30.5%
3Tolu SamuelsFJr6'8"29-2629.57.18.61.31.045.5%25.0%0.451.2%16.8%
5Ola AjiboyeFSr6'8"30-3025.06.65.10.80.849.3%0.0%0.065.2%16.2%
8Cardell BaileyGSr6'6"29-724.612.65.00.71.446.1%30.9%5.771.4%33.9%
11Sheridan SharpGJr6'3"30-717.14.42.12.51.431.8%25.0%0.563.5%23.6%
2Steven ClayGSr6'4"30-2114.54.42.00.50.550.4%31.0%2.993.3%18.4%
15Amaree BrownGJr6'5"16-1226.413.82.81.21.941.2%28.8%3.778.5%36.7%
22Josiah DunhamGSo6'0"20-1020.94.81.90.70.747.3%35.8%3.480.0%15.9%
0Kaden BrownGJr6'1"13-1228.311.12.51.61.849.6%33.7%6.667.4%24.0%
13Devin CurtisFJr6'11"27-011.32.12.50.20.644.4%0.0%0.144.4%14.8%
6Ben EzeaguFSr6'7"15-08.52.11.30.00.745.0%—0.056.0%18.5%
12Alem FejzicGSo6'3"14-08.61.60.60.10.233.8%21.2%2.4—16.7%
1Trey ThomasGSr6'2"4-222.511.83.31.02.040.9%18.8%4.0100.0%37.8%
4Braxton JonesGSr6'0"4-010.52.30.50.50.319.2%25.0%1.0100.0%20.0%
33Cayden GehlhausenGSo6'8"5-03.40.41.40.00.4100.0%—0.0—9.6%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
S IndianaIU Indy
Efficiency
100.1
106.3
110.6
114.9
68.6
72.5
—
—
Shooting
43.7%
52.2%
43.0%
54.8%
29.9%
32.4%
66.6%
72.1%
37.2%
21.7%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
15.9%
16.4%
19.2%
31.4%
28.7%
33.8%
35.6%
9.5%
10.1%
14.1%
7.9%
Style
39.7%
42.1%
38.0%
48.0%
14.7%
15.6%
43.0%
61.9%
35.3%
38.0%
Roster
3.41
2.64
6'4.7"
6'4.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
S Indiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

IU Indy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.