CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceBob Carpenter Center, Newark, DE

James Madison

Efficiency #206

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Delaware

Efficiency #302

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf

Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

71.4

win 51%

Projected

71.2

win 49%

No line posted yet.

Model: JMU −0.2 · total 142.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Delaware 65.5, James Madison 67.4 → 64.6 possessions

−8.0

Delaware offense vs James Madison defense

−0.7

James Madison offense vs Delaware defense

+3.2

Projected total

142.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Delaware offense vs James Madison defense

−0.7

James Madison offense vs Delaware defense

−3.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

James Madison by 0.2

0.2

James Madison side ◂▸ Delaware side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.7 against a projected 142.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Delaware.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, James Madison is the faster team (67.0, #242 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.6

model

Projected team totals

71.4 / 71.2

James Madison / Delaware

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.4#259

James Madison

65.5#356

Delaware

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageDelaware

Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass

Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); James Madison lets opponents grab 29.5% of their own misses (#134). Expect about 23.2%, 7.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Delaware averages 63.9 possessions per 40, James Madison 67.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversDelaware

Delaware protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Delaware's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect James Madison at about 44.4% of its shots from three, Delaware about 44.0%.

AdvantageJames Madison

Where James Madison scores: ball control

James Madison turns it over on 17.3% of possessions (#226); Delaware forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#334). Expect about 15.3%, 1.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

James Madison has the ball

OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #97

51.5% #185

+1.7 pt/100

17.3% #226

14.0% #334

+1.8 pt/100

30.6% #175

31.1% #206

+0.3 pt/100

35.9% #153

30.2% #62

-0.3 pt/100

70.3% #263

—

-0.2 pt/100

James Madison net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100

Delaware has the ball

OffenseJames Madison allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #89

49.0% #66

-0.0 pt/100

18.2% #285

12.8% #360

+2.1 pt/100

20.8% #362

29.5% #134

-4.4 pt/100

30.6% #291

40.8% #310

+0.2 pt/100

78.6% #10

—

+0.5 pt/100

Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

James Madisonoffense vsDelawaredefense

Share of shots by zone

James Madison shoots

40.6

6.7

11.1

41.6

Delaware allows

33.6

5.7

17.4

43.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#91	59.3%#206	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.1%#118	38.0%#136	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.2%#352	36.1%#112	38.0%
Three	35.4%#94	35.1%#255	33.7%

Delawareoffense vsJames Madisondefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware shoots

33.1

6.3

14.6

46.0

James Madison allows

37.1

6.6

18.3

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#179	56.6%#103	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#185	37.6%#128	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#144	38.5%#182	38.0%
Three	36.8%#31	32.7%#101	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

James Madison

−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#327 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#175

Def reb %

70.5%

#134

Turnover %

17.3%

#226

Forced TO %

12.8%

#360

FT rate

35.9%

#153

FT allowed

40.8%

#310

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Delaware

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365

Off reb %

20.8%

#362

Def reb %

68.9%

#206

Turnover %

18.2%

#285

Forced TO %

14.0%

#334

FT rate

30.6%

#291

FT allowed

30.2%

#62

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.3

James Madison has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.8 (#327 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

James Madison2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cliff Davis	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	31.3	15.6	3.1	1.7	1.2	55.1%	37.8%	7.9	87.1%	27.5%
2	Bradley Douglas	G	Sr	6'1"	32-18	27.6	12.1	2.0	3.5	2.3	50.2%	35.6%	4.7	73.3%	29.2%
3	Eddie Ricks III	F	Jr	6'7"	32-20	26.8	7.1	5.6	1.6	0.9	53.8%	27.8%	1.7	78.7%	15.3%
13	Preston Fowler	F	Fr	6'8"	33-14	23.1	6.2	4.6	0.9	0.5	49.1%	29.8%	3.7	72.3%	16.9%
33	Gabe Newhof	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	18.9	8.1	3.7	0.3	0.8	61.3%	—	0.0	53.5%	23.9%
0	Christian Brown	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	13.3	3.0	3.8	0.4	0.9	57.0%	33.3%	0.1	56.8%	15.7%
12	Kose Egbule	G	Sr	6'2"	22-15	16.2	3.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	41.5%	31.4%	1.6	69.7%	20.0%
1	Paul Jones III	G	So	6'4"	20-0	11.2	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	41.2%	29.5%	2.2	64.3%	20.2%
11	Paul Lewis	G	Jr	6'2"	14-1	11.8	2.5	0.9	1.8	0.7	28.6%	25.0%	1.1	78.6%	20.8%
5	Justin Taylor	G	Sr	6'6"	18-1	7.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.2	45.5%	66.7%	0.2	57.1%	9.0%
23	Ike Cornish	G	Sr	6'6"	6-0	11.0	3.5	2.3	0.7	1.0	56.7%	35.7%	2.3	44.4%	23.5%
4	Chance Lundy	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Josh Stephen	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

James Madison2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cliff Davis	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	31.3	15.6	3.1	1.7	1.2	55.1%	37.8%	7.9	87.1%	27.5%
2	Bradley Douglas	G	Sr	6'1"	32-18	27.6	12.1	2.0	3.5	2.3	50.2%	35.6%	4.7	73.3%	29.2%
3	Eddie Ricks III	F	Jr	6'7"	32-20	26.8	7.1	5.6	1.6	0.9	53.8%	27.8%	1.7	78.7%	15.3%
13	Preston Fowler	F	Fr	6'8"	33-14	23.1	6.2	4.6	0.9	0.5	49.1%	29.8%	3.7	72.3%	16.9%
33	Gabe Newhof	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	18.9	8.1	3.7	0.3	0.8	61.3%	—	0.0	53.5%	23.9%
0	Christian Brown	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	13.3	3.0	3.8	0.4	0.9	57.0%	33.3%	0.1	56.8%	15.7%
12	Kose Egbule	G	Sr	6'2"	22-15	16.2	3.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	41.5%	31.4%	1.6	69.7%	20.0%
1	Paul Jones III	G	So	6'4"	20-0	11.2	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	41.2%	29.5%	2.2	64.3%	20.2%
11	Paul Lewis	G	Jr	6'2"	14-1	11.8	2.5	0.9	1.8	0.7	28.6%	25.0%	1.1	78.6%	20.8%
5	Justin Taylor	G	Sr	6'6"	18-1	7.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.2	45.5%	66.7%	0.2	57.1%	9.0%
23	Ike Cornish	G	Sr	6'6"	6-0	11.0	3.5	2.3	0.7	1.0	56.7%	35.7%	2.3	44.4%	23.5%
4	Chance Lundy	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Josh Stephen	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

James Madison

Against the spread

Season

13-19

Home

5-9

Road

6-9

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

4-10

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.2

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Southern MissAdjEM #218	N	L 80–86	−2.0	L−8.0	143.5	O166	111.1	119.4	72.0
Mar 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	N	W 87–72	−6.5	W+8.5	135.0	O159	122.3	101.2	71.2
Feb 27	CoastalAdjEM #241	H	L 68–69	−6.0	L−7.0	142.0	U137	107.0	108.6	63.5
Feb 25	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	W 82–66	−5.5	W+10.5	153.5	U148	116.4	93.7	70.4
Feb 21	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 80–65	−2.5	W+12.5	142.5	O145	119.4	97.0	67.0
Feb 18	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	W 67–65	−1.0	W+1.0	141.5	U132	102.2	99.1	65.6
Feb 14	App StateAdjEM #180	H	W 69–58	+1.5	W+12.5	135.0	U127	112.7	94.7	61.2
Feb 12	Georgia StAdjEM #310	H	W 81–79 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	144.0	O160	109.5	106.8	74.0
Feb 7	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 73–71	+1.0	W+3.0	152.0	U144	109.6	106.6	66.6
Feb 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	H	L 61–64	−9.5	L−12.5	132.0	U125	107.7	113.0	56.6

Delaware

Against the spread

Season

14-15-1

Home

6-7-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

10-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +13.9

Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 38–81	+2.0	L−41.0	132.5	U119	60.3	128.5	63.0
Mar 5	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 83–80	+7.5	W+10.5	148.0	O163	116.7	112.4	71.2
Feb 28	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 82–90	+12.0	W+4.0	143.0	O172	117.9	129.4	69.5
Feb 26	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	L 70–80 OT	+7.5	L−2.5	134.0	O150	104.8	119.8	66.8
Feb 21	MTSUAdjEM #167	A	L 66–78	+10.0	L−2.0	137.5	O144	106.5	125.8	62.0
Feb 18	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 87–88 OT	+4.0	W+3.0	139.5	O175	125.3	126.7	69.4
Feb 14	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 76–67	+8.5	W+17.5	135.0	O143	121.0	106.7	62.8
Feb 12	FIUAdjEM #200	A	W 68–66	+8.5	W+10.5	146.5	U134	101.9	98.9	66.8
Feb 7	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 89–88 OT	+4.5	W+5.5	133.5	O177	129.9	128.5	68.5
Feb 4	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 69–75	+10.0	W+4.0	132.0	O144	110.6	120.2	62.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

James MadisonDelaware

Efficiency

109.2

105.2

110.7

112.6

67.4

65.5

—

Shooting

53.1%

53.3%

53.2%

51.7%

35.4%

36.8%

70.3%

78.6%

35.9%

30.6%

Ball control & glass

17.3%

18.2%

12.8%

14.0%

30.6%

20.8%

29.5%

31.1%

9.5%

11.4%

11.1%

10.4%

Style

42.5%

46.2%

43.8%

36.8%

13.9%

6.9%

48.3%

52.3%

34.8%

15.7%

Roster

3.09

2.72

6'4.9"

6'6.4"

83.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

James Madison

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.2%

Lost

Justin McBride 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Elijah Wilborn 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg · transferred to Merrimack

Added

Josh Stephen no D1 minutes last season
Chance Lundy no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Delaware

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.