Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs San Diego State Aztecs basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 5:00 PM ET · Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Non-conferenceYouTubeViejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Bethune
0-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #253
@
San Diego St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #51
Wed, Nov 11 · 5:00 PM ET
67.485.1
Projected score
BCU win 6%SDSU win 94%
Consensus
Spread
SDSU −18.5
open SDSU −18.5
Total
152.5
open 152.5
Our line
SDSU −17.7
ML Bethune
+1325
ML San Diego St
-3000
Median of 7 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
San Diego Strated 7.4 above average
+7.4
Bethunerated 6.0 below average
+6.0
Home court
+4.3
Our line
SDSU −17.7
◂ Bethune sideSan Diego St side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward San Diego St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 74.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, San Diego St is the faster team (77.0, #38 of 365) and Bethune the slower (73.0, #108). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
74.0
per team, 40 min
Market total
152.5
Consensus · open 152.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.9#99
Bethune
72.6#63
San Diego St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
SDSU −17.7
Four factors 16.5Not in these stats 1.2
From the four factors
San Diego St has the ball+9.9
Bethune has the ball−6.6
San Diego St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.7% #97 · BCU allows 53.5% #229+5.0
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.0% #40 · BCU allows 32.7% #208+3.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 56.5% #21 · BCU allows 56.1% #330 · FT 78.5% #57+2.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.7% #308 · BCU forces 15.5% #254 · ~14 turnovers−0.8
Bethune has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.3% #318 · SDSU allows 23.2% #46−4.7
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 49.4% #191 · SDSU allows 45.2% #82−3.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 21.0% #271 · SDSU forces 14.3% #288 · ~13 turnovers+0.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 51.0% #48 · SDSU allows 38.9% #202 · FT 67.5% #222+0.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootBethuneoffense vsSan Diego Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bethune shoots
33.8
6.5
23.0
36.7
San Diego St allows
35.2
10.2
13.9
40.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.7%#129 | 65.8%#270 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.4%#131 | 9.1%#30 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.1%#232 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 36.2%#111 | 28.1%#94 | 32.5% |
San Diego Stoffense vsBethunedefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego St shoots
25.0
20.0
21.0
34.0
Bethune allows
43.6
4.9
4.9
46.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.0%#70 | 63.4%#247 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#228 | 12.5%#35 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#71 | 12.5%#34 | 34.7% |
| Three | 42.1%#43 | 33.8%#204 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineBethune
−8.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#294 of 365
Off reb %
22.3%
#318
Def reb %
67.3%
#208
Turnover %
21.0%
#271
Forced TO %
15.5%
#254
FT rate
51.0%
#48
FT allowed
56.1%
#330
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−2.0
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn+3.5
Foul shots allowed−4.7
San Diego St
+4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#110 of 365
Off reb %
41.0%
#40
Def reb %
76.8%
#46
Turnover %
22.7%
#308
Forced TO %
14.3%
#288
FT rate
56.5%
#21
FT allowed
38.9%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.1
Defensive rebounding+2.8
Ball security−3.2
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+5.0
Foul shots allowed−0.2
San Diego St has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.8 (#110 of 365) to Bethune’s −8.4 (#294).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notBethune2026-27 numbers · last game: Grand Canyon, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-3 | 26.0 | 22 | — | Started last | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 55.9% | 50.0% | 3.3 | 33.3% | 19.1% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 22.3 | 34 | — | Bench | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 53.3% | 40.0% | 1.7 | 50.0% | 16.6% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 21.7 | 25 | — | Bench | 7.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 44.7% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 100.0% | 22.2% | |
| 11 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 21.0 | 6 | — | Started last | 5.3 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 42.1% | 40.0% | 1.7 | — | 22.5% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-3 | 21.0 | 15 | — | Started last | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 81.8% | 21.5% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 20.7 | 17 | — | Started last | 9.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 61.1% | 44.4% | 3.0 | 54.5% | 24.4% | |
| 5 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 19.7 | 31 | — | Bench | 8.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 43.8% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 64.7% | 25.3% | |
| 30 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 18.3 | 23 | — | Bench | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 38.1% | 20.0% | 3.3 | 76.9% | 29.1% | |
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-1 | 18.5 | 19 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 68.2% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.3% | |
| 15 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-2 | 9.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 83.3% | 20.8% | |
| 21 | C | Sr | 7'0" | 3-0 | 8.0 | 5 | — | Bench | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 11.1% |
Into the starting lineup: Daniel Perez-Rouzan.Out of the starting lineup: IJ Ezuma.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesBethune
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
0-0
Road
2-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +4.5
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total +1.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Grand Canyon | A | L 81–99 | +24.0 | W+6.0 | 155.0 | O180 | 98.6 | 120.5 | 82.2 |
| Nov 5 | #19Texas Tech | A | L 58–76 | +30.0 | W+12.0 | 149.5 | U134 | 83.5 | 109.4 | 69.5 |
| Nov 2 | Furman | N | L 70–79 | +4.5 | L−4.5 | 154.0 | U149 | 103.8 | 117.2 | 67.4 |
| Mar 11 | Prairie View | N | L 67–71 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 148.0 | U138 | 101.9 | 108.0 | 65.8 |
| Mar 5 | Florida A&M | A | L 77–81 | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | O158 | 107.3 | 112.9 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Southern | A | W 82–79 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 153.0 | O161 | 110.6 | 106.6 | 74.1 |
| Feb 26 | Grambling | A | W 76–71 | +1.0 | W+6.0 | 144.0 | O147 | 99.8 | 93.3 | 76.1 |
| Feb 21 | Alabama A&M | H | W 85–76 | −7.0 | W+2.0 | 143.0 | O161 | 125.6 | 112.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 19 | Alabama St | H | W 82–71 | −5.5 | W+5.5 | 148.0 | O153 | 114.8 | 99.4 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | Jackson St | A | L 86–91 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 150.0 | O177 | 111.5 | 118.0 | 77.2 |
San Diego St
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +9.2
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +7.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Colorado | N | W 77–66 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 103.6 | 88.8 | 74.3 |
| Nov 3 | Fullerton | H | W 102–78 | −13.5 | W+10.5 | 155.5 | O180 | 127.9 | 97.8 | 79.8 |
| Mar 14 | Utah State | N | L 62–73 | +2.5 | L−8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 95.0 | 111.8 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | New Mexico | N | W 64–62 | −2.5 | L−0.5 | 150.5 | U126 | 96.8 | 93.7 | 66.1 |
| Mar 12 | Colorado St | N | W 71–62 | −6.5 | W+2.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 102.1 | 89.1 | 69.6 |
| Mar 6 | UNLV | H | W 89–86 | −9.0 | L−6.0 | 153.5 | O175 | 120.7 | 116.6 | 73.7 |
| Mar 3 | Boise St | A | L 77–86 | +1.0 | L−8.0 | 145.0 | O163 | 113.1 | 126.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 28 | New Mexico | A | L 76–81 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 108.1 | 115.3 | 70.3 |
| Feb 25 | Utah State | H | W 89–72 | +1.0 | W+18.0 | 147.0 | O161 | 128.0 | 103.5 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Colorado St | A | L 74–83 | −2.5 | L−11.5 | 140.0 | O157 | 109.5 | 122.8 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBethuneSan Diego St
Efficiency
102.1
109.3
107.9
97.0
71.9
72.6
9.4
2.4
Shooting
49.4%
55.7%
46.5%
51.9%
36.2%
42.1%
67.5%
78.5%
51.0%
56.5%
Ball control & glass
21.0%
22.7%
15.5%
14.3%
22.3%
41.0%
32.7%
23.2%
11.4%
11.7%
8.1%
6.5%
Style
36.9%
33.0%
36.4%
34.6%
15.3%
8.4%
35.8%
55.4%
48.7%
32.3%
Roster
3.15
2.38
6'5.5"
6'6"
24.3%
14.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBethune
Returning minutes: 24.3%Returning production: 27.4%
Lost
- Jakobi Heady 34.6 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Arterio Morris 26.0 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Tennessee St
- Seneca Willoughby 23.1 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ariel Bland 20.0 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyler Andrews 16.3 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jordan Johnson 16.0 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jameel Morris from Alcorn St · 27.7 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
- Karmello Branch from Kansas City · 26.8 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Jaylen Jones from Jacksonville · 26.1 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Daniel Johnson from Hampton · 25.1 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Vuk Boskovic from San Diego · 20.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Mari Jordan from Radford · 13.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
San Diego St
Returning minutes: 14.6%Returning production: 14.0%
Lost
- Reese Dixon-Waters 29.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Miles Byrd 28.1 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Providence
- BJ Davis 22.3 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Creighton
- Taj DeGourville 19.4 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
- Miles Heide 18.5 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to Virginia Tech
- Sean Newman Jr. 15.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Chance Gladden from Boston U · 32.4 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
- Nick Anderson from Rice · 29.2 mpg, 15.5 ppg last season
- Isaiah Sy from Oregon St · 28.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Bear Cherry from Sacramento St · 6.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Jel Malek no D1 minutes last season
- Zach White no D1 minutes last season
Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -18.5-105 | 152.5o-105 u-115 | -1800 | +1000 |
| FanDuel | -18.5-115 | 152.5o-110 u-110 | -4500 | +1600 |
| BetMGM | -18.5-110 | 152.5o-105 u-115 | -3000 | +1150 |
| Caesars | -18.5-110 | 152.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -19→-18.5-110 | 152.5o-110 u-110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| BetOnline | -18-110 | 152o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -18.5-105 | 152.5o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5-335 | 151.5o-170 u-144 | -1900 | +1900 |
| Polymarket | -18.5-150 | 152.5o+113 u-117 | -3233 | +1567 |
| Novig | -18.5→— | 152.5→150.5o-365 u-413 | -2841 | +1567 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 11
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- UNC Asheville at West Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
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- Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.