Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks basketball prediction & odds

Wed, Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET · Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR

Non-conferenceB1G+Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR

Miss Valley St

0-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #363

Oregon

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #92

Wed, Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET

57.890.5

Projected score

MVSU win 0%ORE win 100%

No line posted yet.

Our play

How our line is built

each step, from an even game to our line

Spread

Even game

0.0

Oregonrated 8.6 above average

+8.6

Miss Valley Strated 19.7 below average

+19.7

Home court

+4.3

Our line

ORE −32.6

◂ Miss Valley St sideOregon side ▸

The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Oregon. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Oregon is the faster team (71.2, #164 of 365) and Miss Valley St the slower (67.4, #274). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.2

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.6#251

Miss Valley St

70.1#215

Oregon

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

Our line

ORE −32.6

Four factors 22.8Not in these stats 9.8

From the four factors

Oregon has the ball+14.3

Miss Valley St has the ball−8.5

Oregon has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 65.9% #7 · MVSU allows 55.5% #267+11.5

✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · MVSU allows 46.5% #348+3.6

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.6% #281 · MVSU allows 9.5% #3 · FT 67.6% #220−2.0

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.5% #94 · MVSU forces 18.5% #150 · ~12 turnovers+1.2

Miss Valley St has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 40.9% #320 · ORE allows 49.1% #156−5.9

✗Few second chancesOR% 25.7% #278 · ORE allows 21.6% #22−3.8

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.5% #200 · ORE forces 16.2% #234 · ~12 turnovers+1.0

✓Gets to the lineFTR 35.5% #194 · ORE allows 31.9% #128 · FT 79.5% #49+0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Miss Valley Stoffense vsOregondefense

Share of shots by zone

Miss Valley St shoots

35.2

6.6

20.9

37.4

Oregon allows

28.6

13.3

14.3

43.9

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.6%#95	64.3%#252	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	16.7%#299	23.1%#73	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	15.8%#310	42.9%#240	34.7%
Three	25.0%#299	35.3%#235	32.5%

Oregonoffense vsMiss Valley Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon shoots

45.1

16.7

8.8

29.4

Miss Valley St allows

22.9

5.1

3.4

68.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	82.6%#4	70.4%#308	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	29.4%#234	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	77.8%#11	25.0%#85	34.7%
Three	38.9%#72	33.3%#185	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Miss Valley St

+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365

Off reb %

25.7%

#278

Def reb %

53.5%

#348

Turnover %

18.5%

#200

Forced TO %

18.5%

#150

FT rate

35.5%

#194

FT allowed

9.5%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.0

Defensive rebounding−5.0

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+7.4

Oregon

+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#124 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

78.4%

#22

Turnover %

15.5%

#94

Forced TO %

16.2%

#234

FT rate

27.6%

#281

FT allowed

31.9%

#128

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+3.3

Ball security+2.0

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.5

Foul shots allowed+1.6

Oregon has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.6 (#124 of 365) to Miss Valley St’s +0.1 (#174).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Miss Valley St2026-27 numbers · last game: Washington, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	F	Sr	6'7"	2-2	35.5	39	—	Started last	13.0	8.5	2.0	1.5	41.3%	12.5%	4.0	77.8%	25.5%
21	PF	Jr	6'10"	2-2	32.5	33	—	Started last	10.0	4.0	0.5	0.5	50.0%	30.0%	5.0	100.0%	17.8%
5	G	Jr	6'2"	2-1	27.5	29	—	Started last	13.0	3.5	2.0	3.0	47.4%	66.7%	1.5	80.0%	32.3%
8	G	So	6'5"	2-2	25.5	20	—	Started last	3.0	3.5	0.5	2.5	37.5%	0.0%	0.5	—	15.1%
1	PG	Jr	5'11"	2-1	25.0	23	—	Bench	6.5	0.5	2.5	2.0	37.5%	28.6%	3.5	100.0%	24.4%
2	G	Jr	6'1"	2-1	24.5	28	—	Started last	13.5	4.0	0.5	1.5	56.3%	50.0%	2.0	75.0%	30.2%
20	G	So	6'1"	2-1	18.0	19	—	Bench	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	2.5	—	8.3%
9	C	Fr	7'0"	2-0	12.0	8	—	Bench	1.5	1.0	0.0	1.5	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	75.0%	26.8%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Miss Valley St

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

2-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +16.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −11.5

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	WashingtonAdjEM #98	A	L 64–77	+31.5	W+18.5	153.0	U141	96.8	116.4	66.1
Nov 6	OklahomaAdjEM #101	A	L 57–84	+40.5	W+13.5	152.0	U141	82.9	122.2	68.7
Mar 9	GramblingAdjEM #282	N	L 52–77	+13.5	L−11.5	137.0	U129	78.5	116.2	66.2
Mar 5	Jackson StAdjEM #354	A	L 77–85	+11.5	W+3.5	145.0	O162	116.7	128.8	66.0
Mar 3	Alcorn StAdjEM #358	A	L 64–67	+9.5	W+6.5	139.0	U131	99.1	103.7	64.6
Feb 28	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #357	A	W 70–69	+14.0	W+15.0	147.5	U139	100.4	99.0	69.7
Feb 23	GramblingAdjEM #282	A	L 62–83	+16.0	L−5.0	137.0	O145	78.6	105.2	78.9
Feb 21	Texas SouthernAdjEM #331	H	W 72–71	+11.5	W+12.5	143.5	U143	105.3	103.8	68.4
Feb 19	Prairie ViewAdjEM #271	H	L 62–72	+9.0	L−1.0	153.5	U134	91.3	106.0	67.9
Feb 16	Alabama StAdjEM #305	A	L 55–92	+16.5	L−20.5	143.0	O147	76.1	127.3	72.3

Oregon

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +4.8

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

2-0

Home

2-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg vs total +11.8

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	E WashingtonAdjEM #212	H	W 98–71	−16.0	W+11.0	150.0	O169	132.4	95.9	74.0
Nov 2	MontanaAdjEM #211	H	W 87–69	−19.5	L−1.5	151.5	O156	127.3	101.0	68.3
Mar 10	MarylandAdjEM #154	N	L 60–70	−4.0	L−14.0	139.0	U130	95.6	111.5	62.8
Mar 7	WashingtonAdjEM #98	H	W 85–79	+1.5	W+7.5	146.0	O164	129.7	120.5	65.5
Mar 3	#11IllinoisAdjEM #2	A	L 54–80	+17.5	L−8.5	147.0	U134	78.9	116.9	68.5
Feb 28	NorthwesternAdjEM #65	A	L 62–63	+3.5	W+2.5	142.5	U125	97.3	98.9	63.7
Feb 25	WisconsinAdjEM #64	H	W 85–71	+5.5	W+19.5	153.0	O156	122.8	102.5	69.2
Feb 21	USCAdjEM #74	A	W 71–70	+5.0	W+6.0	149.5	U141	101.3	99.8	70.1
Feb 17	MinnesotaAdjEM #55	H	L 44–61	−3.5	L−20.5	134.5	U105	73.5	101.9	59.9
Feb 14	Penn StateAdjEM #141	H	W 83–72	−6.5	W+4.5	147.0	O155	126.5	109.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Miss Valley StOregon

Efficiency

92.8

110.6

114.2

103.8

69.6

70.1

6.2

-3.3

Shooting

40.9%

65.9%

42.9%

69.0%

25.0%

38.9%

79.5%

67.6%

35.5%

27.6%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

15.5%

18.5%

16.2%

25.7%

33.3%

46.5%

21.6%

13.3%

11.2%

8.6%

6.9%

Style

36.4%

29.3%

44.6%

58.4%

12.4%

16.2%

40.0%

63.5%

27.7%

41.6%

Roster

2.84

3.07

6'4.6"

6'6.2"

0.0%

19.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Miss Valley St

Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 2.9%

Lost

Mike James 35.6 mpg, 20.8 ppg · transferred to Alabama St
Patrick Punch 27.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Daniel Mayfield 25.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
X'Zaevion Barnett 23.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mussa Mzein 17.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Lamont Sams 15.4 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Tarique Foster from UAlbany · 14.0 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
Tory James Jr. from Bakersfield · 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Caleb Cameron no D1 minutes last season
Matt Anglo no D1 minutes last season
Qingfang Pang no D1 minutes last season
Gabriel Martinez no D1 minutes last season

Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oregon

Returning minutes: 20.7%Returning production: 17.1%

Lost

Takai Simpkins 31.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Lipscomb
Kwame Evans Jr. 29.0 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Villanova
Nate Bittle 24.3 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dez Lindsay 20.5 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
Jackson Shelstad 13.1 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Drew Carter 11.6 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Fred Payne from Boston College · 34.7 mpg, 15.8 ppg last season
Andrew Meadow from Boise St · 30.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
Tyrone Riley IV from San Francisco · 29.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
Taylor Bol Bowen from Alabama · 16.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
Jerry Easter II from USC · 15.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
Pharaoh Compton from San Diego St · 13.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Wed, Nov 11

FDU at East Texas A&M · 11:30 AM ET
Kansas City vs Florida A&M · 12:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at UAlbany · 1:00 PM ET
Incarnate Word at UC Davis · 2:00 PM ET
Loyola Chicago at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
Saint Joseph's vs South Florida · 3:00 PM ET
NC A&T at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
Bethune at San Diego St · 5:00 PM ET
Penn at Navy · 5:30 PM ET
NC Central at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
S Indiana at IU Indy · 6:30 PM ET
Charleston at Temple · 6:30 PM ET
Marquette at Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at UMass · 7:00 PM ET
Cornell at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
American at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at West Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
William & Mary at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
NJIT at VCU · 7:00 PM ET
Colgate at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
Campbell at ETSU · 7:00 PM ET
James Madison at Delaware · 7:00 PM ET
Furman at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Saint Peter's at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
Stony Brook at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
SC State at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
Old Dominion at Norfolk St · 7:00 PM ET
Kent State at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
Milwaukee at Indiana St · 7:00 PM ET
Pepperdine at Sam Houston · 7:30 PM ET
Santa Clara at North Texas · 8:00 PM ET
Jackson St at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
Jax State at Houston · 8:00 PM ET
Oral Roberts at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
Robert Morris at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
Nevada at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
SF Austin at Abilene Chrstn · 9:00 PM ET
Portland St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
Lindenwood at Nebraska · 9:00 PM ET
Oakland at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at UCLA · 9:00 PM ET
UTSA at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
Pacific at Long Beach St · 10:00 PM ET
Chicago St at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
USC at California · 11:00 PM ET

← Tue, Nov 10 · Thu, Nov 12 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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