Portland State Vikings vs Colorado State Rams basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET · Moby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Non-conferenceYouTubeMoby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Portland St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #178
@
Colorado St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #102
Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET
67.779.8
Projected score
PRST win 15%CSU win 85%
Consensus
Spread
CSU −14.5
open CSU −14.5
Total
147.5
open 147.5
Our line
CSU −12.2
ML Portland St
+763
ML Colorado St
-1292
Median of 6 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Colorado Strated 6.6 above average
+6.6
Portland Strated 1.4 below average
+1.4
Home court
+4.2
Our line
CSU −12.2
◂ Portland St sideColorado St side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Colorado St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Colorado St is the faster team (71.2, #162 of 365) and Portland St the slower (68.3, #258). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
147.5
Consensus · open 147.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#236
Portland St
69.5#256
Colorado St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
CSU −12.2
Four factors +18.0 · not in these stats −5.8
From the four factors
Colorado St has the ball+8.7
Portland St has the ball−9.3
Colorado St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.9% #52 · PRST allows 55.8% #275+7.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 32.5% #227 · PRST allows 57.7% #335 · FT 81.1% #40+1.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.9% #149 · PRST forces 17.6% #193 · ~12 turnovers+1.0
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.1% #296 · PRST allows 37.9% #291−0.9
Portland St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 39.5% #329 · CSU allows 48.4% #135−7.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 30.0% #207 · CSU allows 21.5% #21−2.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.0% #216 · CSU forces 15.5% #258 · ~12 turnovers+1.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.1% #116 · CSU allows 26.0% #56 · FT 62.5% #287−0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootPortland Stoffense vsColorado Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland St shoots
22.4
22.4
16.3
38.8
Colorado St allows
23.5
11.8
17.6
47.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 36.4%#351 | 46.4%#48 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.5%#127 | 57.1%#295 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 38.1%#200 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.0%#299 | 32.8%#181 | 32.5% |
Colorado Stoffense vsPortland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado St shoots
43.4
10.6
8.8
37.2
Portland St allows
42.6
19.1
10.6
27.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 77.6%#11 | 60.0%#195 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 44.4%#222 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 40.0%#212 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.3%#158 | 30.8%#142 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul linePortland St
−7.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#280 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#207
Def reb %
62.1%
#291
Turnover %
19.0%
#216
Forced TO %
17.6%
#193
FT rate
42.1%
#116
FT allowed
57.7%
#335
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−2.1
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−5.1
Colorado St
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#151 of 365
Off reb %
24.1%
#296
Def reb %
78.5%
#21
Turnover %
16.9%
#149
Forced TO %
15.5%
#258
FT rate
32.5%
#227
FT allowed
26.0%
#56
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding+3.4
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+3.1
Colorado St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#151 of 365) to Portland St’s −7.4 (#280).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notPortland St2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 23.5 | 15.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 45.8% | 30.8% | 6.5 | 72.7% | 40.2% | Active | |
| 22 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 23.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 37.5% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 14.2% | Active | |
| 2 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 20.5 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 23.9% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 2-2 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 60.7% | 41.7% | 6.0 | 50.0% | 25.8% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 16.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 42.9% | 23.6% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 16.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 18.8% | Active | |
| 17 | C | Sr | 6'11" | 2-2 | 16.0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 28.7% | Active | |
| 1 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 21.4% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 33.3% | 20.9% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 60.0% | 24.4% | Active | |
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 24.4% | Active | |
| 7 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 11.6% | Active | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 35.6% | Missed last | |
| 10 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 26.5% | Active | |
| 6 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 22.3% | Active |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesPortland St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −8.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −5.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Seattle U | A | L 60–79 | +10.5 | L−8.5 | 144.0 | U139 | 87.8 | 115.6 | 68.3 |
| Nov 3 | Lewis & Clark River Otters | H | W 111–59 | — | — | — | — | 145.2 | 77.2 | 76.5 |
| Mar 10 | Montana | N | L 72–75 | −3.5 | L−6.5 | 145.0 | O147 | 97.8 | 101.9 | 73.6 |
| Mar 8 | Idaho St | N | W 85–78 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 141.0 | O163 | 115.6 | 106.1 | 73.5 |
| Mar 2 | Weber St | H | W 84–60 | −5.0 | W+19.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 121.8 | 87.0 | 68.9 |
| Feb 28 | Montana | A | L 68–74 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 140.0 | O142 | 95.0 | 103.4 | 71.5 |
| Feb 26 | Montana St | A | L 69–84 | +1.5 | L−13.5 | 140.5 | O153 | 98.0 | 119.3 | 70.4 |
| Feb 21 | E Washington | H | L 55–67 | −6.0 | L−18.0 | 146.5 | U122 | 83.0 | 101.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 19 | Idaho | H | W 77–67 | −3.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 112.3 | 97.7 | 68.6 |
| Feb 14 | N Colorado | A | L 65–77 | +3.5 | L−8.5 | 149.5 | U142 | 94.1 | 111.5 | 69.1 |
Colorado St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +1.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Idaho | H | W 78–67 | −16.5 | L−5.5 | 151.5 | U145 | 112.8 | 96.9 | 69.1 |
| Nov 2 | Montana St | H | W 84–74 | −11.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | O158 | 114.7 | 101.0 | 73.3 |
| Mar 18 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 64–69 | −6.0 | L−11.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 95.5 | 103.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | San Diego St | N | L 62–71 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 89.1 | 102.1 | 69.6 |
| Mar 11 | Fresno St | N | W 67–63 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 106.4 | 100.1 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Boise St | H | L 67–78 | +1.5 | L−9.5 | 144.0 | O145 | 109.4 | 127.3 | 61.3 |
| Mar 4 | New Mexico | A | W 82–74 | +8.0 | W+16.0 | 151.0 | O156 | 112.9 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 28 | San José St | A | W 85–73 | −8.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O158 | 133.6 | 114.7 | 63.6 |
| Feb 24 | Fresno St | H | W 74–70 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 111.0 | 105.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | San Diego St | H | W 83–74 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 140.0 | O157 | 122.8 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homePortland StColorado St
Efficiency
102.3
111.7
103.5
105.6
69.8
69.5
5.2
1.4
Shooting
39.5%
57.9%
40.5%
62.5%
25.0%
33.3%
62.5%
81.1%
42.1%
32.5%
Ball control & glass
19.0%
16.9%
17.6%
15.5%
30.0%
24.1%
37.9%
21.5%
10.2%
10.5%
10.8%
2.8%
Style
35.1%
36.8%
46.7%
50.6%
0.0%
9.9%
35.0%
52.5%
52.6%
24.7%
Roster
2.98
3.12
6'5.7"
6'5.8"
2.3%
57.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPortland St
Returning minutes: 3.7%Returning production: 3.2%
Lost
- Jaylin Henderson 37.3 mpg, 18.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Terri Miller Jr. 30.5 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tre-Vaughn Minott 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keyon Kensie Jr. 28.4 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Nevada
- Kelcy Phipps 17.6 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to UNC Asheville
- Alex Dupre 14.9 mpg, 3.1 ppg · transferred to Utah Tech
Added
- Jaquay Randolph new to D1 · 28.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
- Emil Skytt from N Dakota St · 9.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
- KC Ibekwe from Pacific · 9.0 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
- Koren Johnson from Ole Miss · 6.8 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Luke Kearney from Utah State · 1.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Nehemiah Pollard no D1 minutes last season
Returns 4% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Colorado St
Returning minutes: 57.9%Returning production: 59.7%
Lost
- Jevin Muniz 30.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Rechsteiner 27.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
- Augustinas Kiudulas 14.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to W Michigan
- Nikola Djapa 5.2 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Wright St
- Darnez Slater 4.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg · transferred to Montana St
- Jon Mekonnen 1.6 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to S Dakota St
Added
- Justin Menard from Marist · 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg last season
- Pops Dunson no D1 minutes last season
- Eric Fiedler no D1 minutes last season
- River Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
- Amondo Miller Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Docker Tedeschi no D1 minutes last season
Returns 58% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -14.5-112 | 147.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14.5-115 | 147.5o-115 u-105 | -1400 | +775 |
| Caesars | -14.5-110 | 147.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -15-105 | 148o-110 u-110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetOnline | -15-110 | 147.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -14.5-110 | 147.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5-108 | 147.5o-113 u-104 | -1150 | +900 |
| Polymarket | -14.5-127 | — | -1329 | +809 |
| Novig | — | — | — | — |
DraftKings
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 11
- FDU at East Texas A&M · 11:30 AM ET
- Kansas City vs Florida A&M · 12:00 PM ET
- Dartmouth at UAlbany · 1:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at UC Davis · 2:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
- Saint Joseph's vs South Florida · 3:00 PM ET
- NC A&T at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- Bethune at San Diego St · 5:00 PM ET
- Penn at Navy · 5:30 PM ET
- NC Central at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at IU Indy · 6:30 PM ET
- Charleston at Temple · 6:30 PM ET
- Marquette at Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
- UMass Lowell at UMass · 7:00 PM ET
- Cornell at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
- American at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at West Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
- William & Mary at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at VCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Colgate at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at ETSU · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Delaware · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Saint Peter's at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Stony Brook at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- SC State at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Norfolk St · 7:00 PM ET
- Kent State at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Indiana St · 7:00 PM ET
- Pepperdine at Sam Houston · 7:30 PM ET
- Santa Clara at North Texas · 8:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
- Jax State at Houston · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
- Robert Morris at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
- Nevada at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- SF Austin at Abilene Chrstn · 9:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Nebraska · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at UCLA · 9:00 PM ET
- UTSA at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- Pacific at Long Beach St · 10:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon · 10:00 PM ET
- USC at California · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.