CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCrisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
Marquette
Efficiency #100
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf
@
Michigan
Efficiency #1
2025-26: 37-3 · 21-2 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
67.0
win 4%
Projected
86.6
win 96%
No line posted yet.
Model: MICH −19.7 · total 153.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Michigan 70.7, Marquette 69.5 → 71.9 possessions
+7.8
Michigan offense vs Marquette defense
+6.5
Marquette offense vs Michigan defense
−9.0
Projected total
153.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Michigan offense vs Marquette defense
+6.5
Marquette offense vs Michigan defense
+9.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Michigan by 19.7
19.7
Marquette side ◂▸ Michigan side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.5 against a projected 153.6, and the margin steps add to +19.6 against +19.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Michigan.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Michigan is the faster team (71.4, #34 of 365) and Marquette the slower (70.1, #91). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.6
model
Projected team totals
67.0 / 86.6
Marquette / Michigan
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#81
Marquette
70.7#22
Michigan
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMarquette
Where Marquette struggles: shooting
Marquette shoots an effective 50.5% (#215); Michigan allows 44.6% (#1). Expect about 47.4%, 3.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMichigan
Where Michigan scores: shooting
Michigan shoots an effective 58.3% (#8); Marquette allows 50.6% (#131). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseMichigan
Michigan's shot-blocking
Michigan ranks #3 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.4% of Marquette's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Track meet
Michigan averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Marquette 70.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashMichigan
Style match: ball movement
Michigan assists on 61.0% of its made baskets; Marquette allows assists on 60.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.1% — both habits push the same way.
GlassMichigan
Michigan owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.5% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Michigan's offense.
Marquette has the ball
OffenseMichigan allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #215
44.6% #1
-5.5 pt/100
16.0% #144
15.1% #272
+1.8 pt/100
29.7% #216
28.2% #70
-1.0 pt/100
32.8% #243
26.0% #14
-0.8 pt/100
67.5% #332
—
-0.4 pt/100
Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.9 pts/100
Michigan has the ball
OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg
58.3% #8
50.6% #131
+5.3 pt/100
16.3% #159
19.3% #38
-1.7 pt/100
34.7% #55
34.7% #331
+3.1 pt/100
38.0% #102
32.0% #104
-0.0 pt/100
74.8% #91
—
+0.2 pt/100
Michigan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMarquetteoffense vsMichigandefense
Share of shots by zone
Marquette shoots
46.1
4.0
7.9
42.0
Michigan allows
27.6
8.8
21.2
42.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.0%#238 | 54.5%#48 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.6%#161 | 40.9%#206 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.3%#306 | 31.4%#12 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#297 | 30.4%#18 | 33.7% |
Michiganoffense vsMarquettedefense
Share of shots by zone
Michigan shoots
42.8
7.8
8.5
40.9
Marquette allows
39.3
4.7
16.5
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.4%#7 | 60.9%#264 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.3%#169 | 36.3%#95 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.8%#82 | 35.5%#88 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.8%#33 | 32.7%#104 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMarquette
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
65.3%
#331
Turnover %
16.0%
#144
Forced TO %
19.3%
#38
FT rate
32.8%
#243
FT allowed
32.0%
#104
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Michigan
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#29 of 365
Off reb %
34.7%
#55
Def reb %
71.8%
#70
Turnover %
16.3%
#159
Forced TO %
15.1%
#272
FT rate
38.0%
#102
FT allowed
26.0%
#14
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+2.4
Michigan has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#29 of 365) to Marquette’s +1.0 (#137).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Marquette2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nigel James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-29 | 29.3 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 52.0% | 34.7% | 3.8 | 69.2% | 35.0% | |
| 13 | Royce Parham | F | So | 6'8" | 31-20 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 58.4% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 65.0% | 23.4% | |
| 12 | Ben Gold | F | Sr | 6'11" | 31-26 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.3% | 26.4% | 4.5 | 65.3% | 17.8% | |
| 10 | Adrien Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-23 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 4.5 | 71.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Damarius Owens | F | So | 6'7" | 30-1 | 15.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 71.7% | 19.5% | |
| 18 | Caedin Hamilton | F | So | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 67.5% | 16.9% | |
| 5 | Tre Norman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 44.1% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 35 | Michael Phillips II | F | Fr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.6% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 35.7% | 19.1% | |
| 22 | Sean Jones | G | Jr | 5'10" | 8-3 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 32.1% | 3.5 | 68.8% | 21.5% | |
| 8 | Joshua Clark | F | So | 7'1" | 22-0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | Casey O'Malley | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 42 | Braeden Brenn | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 41 | Jonah Lucas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 21 | Ian Miletic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nash Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Sheek Pearson | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Michigan2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Elliot Cadeau | G | Jr | 6'1" | 40-40 | 27.3 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 50.9% | 37.6% | 4.3 | 70.9% | 24.8% | |
| 1 | Trey McKenney | G | Fr | 6'4" | 40-0 | 22.0 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 58.6% | 39.1% | 4.3 | 89.5% | 22.1% | |
| 42 | Will Tschetter | F | Sr | 6'8" | 40-1 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.9% | 34.5% | 2.1 | 90.9% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | Oscar Goodman | F | Fr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 40.0% | 19.3% | |
| 32 | Malick Kordel | C | Fr | 7'2" | 14-0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 20.0% | 16.5% | |
| 10 | Winters Grady | G | Fr | 6'6" | 9-0 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 31.6% | 2.1 | 85.7% | 29.4% | |
| 12 | Charlie May | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 21.7% | |
| 7 | Howard Eisley Jr. | G | So | 6'0" | 9-0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 26.4% | |
| 13 | Harrison Hochberg | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ricky Liburd | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marquette2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nigel James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-29 | 29.3 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 52.0% | 34.7% | 3.8 | 69.2% | 35.0% | |
| 13 | Royce Parham | F | So | 6'8" | 31-20 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 58.4% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 65.0% | 23.4% | |
| 12 | Ben Gold | F | Sr | 6'11" | 31-26 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.3% | 26.4% | 4.5 | 65.3% | 17.8% | |
| 10 | Adrien Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-23 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 4.5 | 71.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Damarius Owens | F | So | 6'7" | 30-1 | 15.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 71.7% | 19.5% | |
| 18 | Caedin Hamilton | F | So | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 67.5% | 16.9% | |
| 5 | Tre Norman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 44.1% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 35 | Michael Phillips II | F | Fr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.6% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 35.7% | 19.1% | |
| 22 | Sean Jones | G | Jr | 5'10" | 8-3 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 32.1% | 3.5 | 68.8% | 21.5% | |
| 8 | Joshua Clark | F | So | 7'1" | 22-0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | Casey O'Malley | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 42 | Braeden Brenn | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 41 | Jonah Lucas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 21 | Ian Miletic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nash Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Sheek Pearson | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Marquette
Against the spread
Season
11-19-2
Home
6-10-1
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +5.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
6-11
Road
6-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −8.2
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Xavier | N | L 87–89 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 113.7 | 116.3 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | #4UConn | H | W 68–62 | +10.0 | W+16.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 101.1 | 92.2 | 67.2 |
| Mar 4 | Providence | A | W 78–56 | +4.5 | W+26.5 | 162.0 | U134 | 109.9 | 78.9 | 71.0 |
| Mar 1 | DePaul | H | L 51–62 | −4.5 | L−15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 80.6 | 98.0 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | Georgetown | A | W 76–60 | +2.5 | W+18.5 | 150.5 | U136 | 116.6 | 92.0 | 65.2 |
| Feb 18 | #17St John's | H | L 70–76 | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 157.0 | U146 | 102.2 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 14 | Xavier | A | L 88–96 | +2.0 | L−6.0 | 157.5 | O184 | 122.1 | 133.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 10 | Villanova | A | L 74–77 | +9.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | O151 | 105.5 | 109.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Butler | H | W 70–55 | −3.5 | W+11.5 | 155.5 | U125 | 104.6 | 82.2 | 66.9 |
| Jan 31 | Seton Hall | A | L 64–69 | +5.5 | W+0.5 | 143.0 | U133 | 102.8 | 110.8 | 62.3 |
Michigan
Against the spread
Season
19-21
Home
8-7
Road
4-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +1.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-23
Home
6-9
Road
4-7
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +0.8
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6 | #2UConn | N | W 69–63 | −6.5 | L−0.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 105.4 | 96.3 | 65.4 |
| Apr 4 | #1Arizona | N | W 91–73 | +1.0 | W+19.0 | 157.5 | O164 | 116.6 | 93.6 | 78.0 |
| Mar 29 | #6Tennessee | N | W 95–62 | −8.0 | W+25.0 | 146.0 | O157 | 126.1 | 82.3 | 75.3 |
| Mar 27 | #4Alabama | N | W 90–77 | −9.5 | W+3.5 | 173.0 | U167 | 126.6 | 108.3 | 71.1 |
| Mar 21 | #9Saint Louis | N | W 95–72 | −12.0 | W+11.0 | 160.5 | O167 | 134.7 | 102.1 | 70.5 |
| Mar 19 | #16Howard | N | W 101–80 | −31.0 | L−10.0 | 151.5 | O181 | 141.7 | 112.2 | 71.3 |
| Mar 15 | #18Purdue | N | L 72–80 | −5.5 | L−13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 114.9 | 127.7 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | #23Wisconsin | N | W 68–65 | −12.5 | L−9.5 | 161.5 | U133 | 100.7 | 96.2 | 67.5 |
| Mar 13 | Ohio State | N | W 71–67 | −12.5 | L−8.5 | 155.0 | U138 | 106.0 | 100.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 8 | #8Michigan St | H | W 90–80 | −10.5 | L−0.5 | 152.0 | O170 | 126.5 | 112.5 | 71.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMarquetteMichigan
Efficiency
108.7
121.2
104.8
95.7
69.5
70.7
—
—
Shooting
50.5%
58.3%
52.7%
60.6%
31.7%
36.8%
67.5%
74.8%
32.8%
38.0%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
16.3%
19.3%
15.1%
29.7%
34.7%
34.7%
28.2%
9.7%
8.9%
10.0%
8.5%
Style
42.2%
41.4%
47.8%
44.6%
19.5%
13.9%
58.1%
61.0%
29.0%
37.4%
Roster
2.02
2.42
6'5.9"
6'3.9"
79.8%
34.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMarquette
Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%
Lost
- Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
- Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Michigan
Returning minutes: 34.2%Returning production: 26.1%
Lost
- Yaxel Lendeborg 30.3 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Morez Johnson Jr. 25.1 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aday Mara 23.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Roddy Gayle Jr. 20.5 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nimari Burnett 19.8 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- L.J. Cason 13.1 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Miami
Added
- Ricky Liburd no D1 minutes last season
- Harrison Hochberg no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.