Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Boise State Broncos basketball prediction & odds

Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET · ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID

Non-conferenceYouTubeExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID

Oakland

0-4 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #267

Boise St

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #63

Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET

72.590.5

Projected score

OAK win 6%BOIS win 94%

No line posted yet.

Our play

How our line is built

each step, from an even game to our line

Spread

Even game

0.0

Boise Strated 8.2 above average

+8.2

Oaklandrated 5.6 below average

+5.6

Home court

+4.2

Our line

BOIS −18.0

◂ Oakland sideBoise St side ▸

The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Boise St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Boise St is the faster team (83.8, #3 of 365) and Oakland the slower (69.3, #227). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.4#262

Oakland

72.9#58

Boise St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

Our line

BOIS −18.0

Four factors +22.5 · not in these stats −4.5

From the four factors

Boise St has the ball+14.2

Oakland has the ball−8.3

Boise St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.3% #81 · OAK allows 62.5% #339+9.9

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.9% #22 · OAK forces 13.7% #295 · ~8 turnovers+5.7

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 21.5% #334 · OAK allows 24.1% #40 · FT 64.7% #258−1.7

✓Wins second chancesOR% 31.1% #189 · OAK allows 33.3% #217+0.3

Oakland has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.6% #286 · BOIS allows 44.6% #73−6.9

✗Coughs it upTO% 19.8% #244 · BOIS forces 17.9% #186 · ~14 turnovers−0.6

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.3% #114 · BOIS allows 21.6% #29 · FT 70.8% #162−0.6

✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · BOIS allows 27.9% #122−0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Oaklandoffense vsBoise Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oakland shoots

39.5

7.3

14.7

38.4

Boise St allows

41.3

10.9

0.0

47.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.4%#255	63.2%#244	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.8%#224	20.0%#54	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	23.1%#267	—	34.7%
Three	26.5%#270	22.2%#23	32.5%

Boise Stoffense vsOaklanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Boise St shoots

41.2

11.8

2.0

45.1

Oakland allows

34.7

6.6

7.1

51.5

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	42.9%#324	72.1%#324	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	16.7%#299	30.8%#119	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	0.0%#327	35.7%#187	34.7%
Three	48.6%#5	42.6%#323	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Oakland

+0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#166 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

66.7%

#217

Turnover %

19.8%

#244

Forced TO %

13.7%

#295

FT rate

42.3%

#114

FT allowed

24.1%

#40

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.1

Forcing turnovers−3.1

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+3.6

Boise St

+5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365

Off reb %

31.1%

#189

Def reb %

72.1%

#122

Turnover %

11.9%

#22

Forced TO %

17.9%

#186

FT rate

21.5%

#334

FT allowed

21.6%

#29

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+4.5

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−4.1

Foul shots allowed+4.3

Boise St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.6 (#100 of 365) to Oakland’s +0.7 (#166).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Oakland2026-27 numbers · last game: Alabama, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	F	Sr	6'8"	4-4	33.3	37	—	Started last	17.3	10.0	1.5	2.8	49.0%	100.0%	0.3	71.4%	32.2%
0	G	Jr	6'6"	4-4	32.0	37	—	Started last	15.5	3.5	1.5	3.3	44.1%	29.0%	7.8	94.4%	32.7%
3	G	So	6'3"	4-0	21.5	14	—	Bench	7.0	3.0	1.0	1.8	54.3%	27.3%	2.8	50.0%	22.0%
13	G	Jr	6'6"	4-4	21.5	29	—	Started last	3.8	2.3	1.0	1.3	25.0%	0.0%	1.8	83.3%	18.6%
10	G	Sr	6'0"	4-2	20.3	15	—	Bench	3.5	1.5	1.0	1.5	58.3%	44.4%	2.3	—	12.9%
24	F	Sr	6'8"	4-4	17.8	9	—	Started last	5.0	2.8	0.8	1.0	31.6%	0.0%	0.3	61.5%	23.6%
4	G	Sr	6'10"	4-2	13.5	9	—	Started last	4.3	2.8	0.3	1.5	34.4%	20.0%	1.3	54.5%	29.1%
1	G	So	6'4"	4-0	12.8	17	—	Bench	2.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	44.4%	25.0%	2.0	—	12.5%
6	F	So	6'7"	4-0	10.5	19	—	Bench	3.8	2.0	0.8	0.0	42.9%	—	0.0	81.8%	16.8%
5	G	So	6'8"	4-0	6.0	10	—	Bench	3.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	1.0	—	22.3%
22	F	Jr	6'8"	4-0	4.0	0	—	Bench	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	14.3%	0.0%	1.0	—	25.8%
11	G	Fr	6'6"	4-0	3.5	—	—	Active	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	8.4%
21	F	Fr	6'8"	4-0	3.3	—	—	Active	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	15.5%
7	G	Fr	6'6"	1-0	1.0	—	—	Out L3	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	56.1%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Oakland

Against the spread

Season

1-3

Home

0-0

Road

1-3

Last 10

1-3

avg cover −2.8

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 4 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

2-2

Home

0-0

Road

2-2

Last 10

2-2

avg vs total +1.5

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	#18AlabamaAdjEM #15	A	L 68–109	+32.0	L−9.0	171.0	O177	95.3	152.8	71.3
Nov 7	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #115	A	L 67–90	+13.5	L−9.5	149.0	O157	104.6	140.5	64.1
Nov 6	StanfordAdjEM #81	A	L 63–81	+15.0	L−3.0	146.5	U144	90.6	116.5	69.5
Nov 2	#16MichiganAdjEM #9	A	L 68–84	+26.5	W+10.5	157.5	U152	94.0	116.1	72.4
Mar 4	N KentuckyAdjEM #171	H	L 84–85	−2.0	L−3.0	162.5	O169	115.1	116.5	73.0
Feb 28	Detroit MercyAdjEM #324	H	L 89–95	−8.0	L−14.0	161.5	O184	123.4	131.7	72.1
Feb 25	IU IndyAdjEM #288	A	W 86–74	−5.5	W+6.5	167.5	U160	118.5	101.9	72.6
Feb 22	MilwaukeeAdjEM #296	H	W 81–70	−6.5	W+4.5	160.0	U151	123.9	107.1	65.4
Feb 20	Green BayAdjEM #166	H	L 68–73	−6.5	L−11.5	153.5	U141	107.8	115.7	63.1
Feb 15	Robert MorrisAdjEM #256	A	L 69–93	+1.5	L−22.5	156.0	O162	104.4	140.7	66.1

Boise St

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +16.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +23.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	ButlerAdjEM #76	H	W 100–81	−2.5	W+16.5	158.0	O181	119.3	96.6	83.8
Nov 4	West Coast Baptist Eagles	H	W 132–53	—	—	—	—	149.9	60.2	88.1
Mar 11	San José StAdjEM #238	N	L 74–84	−14.5	L−24.5	146.0	O158	106.0	120.3	69.8
Mar 7	Colorado StAdjEM #102	A	W 78–67	−1.5	W+9.5	144.0	O145	127.3	109.4	61.3
Mar 3	San Diego StAdjEM #51	H	W 86–77	−1.0	W+8.0	145.0	O163	126.3	113.1	68.1
Feb 28	Fresno StAdjEM #185	A	W 69–53	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U122	114.9	88.3	60.0
Feb 24	WyomingAdjEM #85	H	W 72–62	−8.5	W+1.5	146.0	U134	113.1	97.4	63.7
Feb 21	San José StAdjEM #238	H	W 84–69	−17.5	L−2.5	146.0	O153	127.9	105.0	65.7
Feb 18	Utah StateAdjEM #23	A	L 56–75	+9.5	L−9.5	152.5	U131	93.0	124.5	60.2
Feb 13	UNLVAdjEM #129	H	L 83–86 OT	−10.0	L−13.0	154.0	O169	119.3	123.7	69.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

OaklandBoise St

Efficiency

107.6

111.8

113.9

101.7

69.4

72.9

13.6

8.3

Shooting

43.6%

56.3%

45.8%

43.2%

26.5%

48.6%

70.8%

64.7%

42.3%

21.5%

Ball control & glass

19.8%

11.9%

13.7%

17.9%

33.3%

31.1%

33.3%

27.9%

11.5%

4.8%

16.0%

4.5%

Style

36.6%

44.3%

44.4%

36.0%

9.0%

11.0%

37.5%

61.1%

40.0%

40.2%

Roster

3.10

2.97

6'5.9"

6'5.6"

9.9%

27.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Oakland

Returning minutes: 9.9%Returning production: 7.7%

Lost

Brody Robinson 35.8 mpg, 17.6 ppg · transferred to Creighton
Tuburu Naivalurua 31.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ziare Wells 26.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Isaac Garrett 25.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to High Point
Brett White II 24.0 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Michael Houge 22.5 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Belal El Shakery from New Hampshire · 25.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
Brady Swartz from W Michigan · 16.6 mpg, 6.2 ppg last season
Chris Fields Jr. from Campbell · 14.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Josh Hill from Robert Morris · 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
RJ Taylor from Northern Iowa · 9.1 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
Hamoudy Mashhour no D1 minutes last season

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Boise St

Returning minutes: 27.5%Returning production: 20.6%

Lost

Andrew Meadow 30.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oregon
Dylan Andrews 29.3 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Javan Buchanan 27.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to West Virginia
Drew Fielder 23.7 mpg, 14.7 ppg · transferred to Alabama
R.J. Keene II 21.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to NC State
Dominic Parolin 17.0 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Dovydas Butka from Campbell · 30.9 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
Damari Wheeler-Thomas from N Dakota St · 27.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg last season
Lamar Washington from Georgia Tech · 26.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
Jerquarius Stanback from Alabama St · 24.6 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season
Jikany Deang no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Wed, Nov 11

FDU at East Texas A&M · 11:30 AM ET
Kansas City vs Florida A&M · 12:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at UAlbany · 1:00 PM ET
Incarnate Word at UC Davis · 2:00 PM ET
Loyola Chicago at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
Saint Joseph's vs South Florida · 3:00 PM ET
NC A&T at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
Bethune at San Diego St · 5:00 PM ET
Penn at Navy · 5:30 PM ET
NC Central at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
S Indiana at IU Indy · 6:30 PM ET
Charleston at Temple · 6:30 PM ET
Marquette at Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
UMass Lowell at UMass · 7:00 PM ET
Cornell at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
American at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
UNC Asheville at West Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
William & Mary at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
NJIT at VCU · 7:00 PM ET
Colgate at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
Campbell at ETSU · 7:00 PM ET
James Madison at Delaware · 7:00 PM ET
Furman at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Saint Peter's at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
Stony Brook at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
SC State at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
Old Dominion at Norfolk St · 7:00 PM ET
Kent State at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
Milwaukee at Indiana St · 7:00 PM ET
Pepperdine at Sam Houston · 7:30 PM ET
Santa Clara at North Texas · 8:00 PM ET
Jackson St at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
Jax State at Houston · 8:00 PM ET
Oral Roberts at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
Robert Morris at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
Nevada at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
SF Austin at Abilene Chrstn · 9:00 PM ET
Portland St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
Lindenwood at Nebraska · 9:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at UCLA · 9:00 PM ET
UTSA at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
Pacific at Long Beach St · 10:00 PM ET
Chicago St at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
Miss Valley St at Oregon · 10:00 PM ET
USC at California · 11:00 PM ET

← Tue, Nov 10 · Thu, Nov 12 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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