CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA
Chicago St
Efficiency #342
2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf
@
CA Baptist
Efficiency #102
2025-26: 25-9 · 15-5 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET
62.7
win 11%
Projected
77.0
win 89%
No line posted yet.
Model: CBU −14.2 · total 139.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: CA Baptist 67.4, Chicago St 67.2 → 66.3 possessions
−4.3
CA Baptist offense vs Chicago St defense
+3.1
Chicago St offense vs CA Baptist defense
−7.3
Projected total
139.7
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
CA Baptist offense vs Chicago St defense
+3.1
Chicago St offense vs CA Baptist defense
+7.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
CA Baptist by 14.2
14.2
Chicago St side ◂▸ CA Baptist side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help CA Baptist.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, CA Baptist is the faster team (67.5, #223 of 365) and Chicago St the slower (65.8, #304). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.7
model
Projected team totals
62.7 / 77.0
Chicago St / CA Baptist
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#272
Chicago St
67.4#256
CA Baptist

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageChicago St
Where Chicago St struggles: shooting
Chicago St shoots an effective 45.3% (#358); CA Baptist allows 46.3% (#16). Expect about 45.3%, 6.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -8.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageCA Baptist
Where CA Baptist scores: the offensive glass
CA Baptist rebounds 37.5% of its own misses (#13); Chicago St lets opponents grab 35.0% of their own misses (#339). Expect about 37.6%, 7.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashChicago St
Style match: 3-point volume
Chicago St rarely shoots threes (30.9% of its shots); CA Baptist runs teams off the line (31.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 27.5% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversCA Baptist
CA Baptist turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.5% is worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions against CA Baptist's offense.
Pace
Half-court grind
CA Baptist averages 67.5 possessions per 40, Chicago St 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (CA Baptist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Chicago St at about 27.5% of its shots from three, CA Baptist about 40.8%.
Chicago St has the ball
OffenseCA Baptist allowsvs D1 avg
45.3% #358
46.3% #16
-8.5 pt/100
15.6% #113
17.0% #154
+0.6 pt/100
28.3% #255
27.2% #41
-1.9 pt/100
30.0% #311
36.6% #229
-0.2 pt/100
75.0% #84
—
+0.2 pt/100
Chicago St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.7 pts/100
CA Baptist has the ball
OffenseChicago St allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #308
56.7% #354
+1.5 pt/100
17.9% #267
20.1% #20
-3.4 pt/100
37.5% #13
35.0% #339
+4.4 pt/100
35.9% #154
38.0% #261
+0.3 pt/100
71.3% #230
—
-0.1 pt/100
CA Baptist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Chicago Stoffense vsCA Baptistdefense
Share of shots by zone
Chicago St shoots
CA Baptist allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.8%#36151.3%#958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.0%#19539.7%#18639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23238.4%#17438.0%
Three32.1%#27529.5%#533.7%
CA Baptistoffense vsChicago Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
CA Baptist shoots
Chicago St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.0%#35464.9%#35058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.5%#33631.0%#1939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3644.1%#34138.0%
Three33.4%#20035.6%#29033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Chicago St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#232 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#255
Def reb %
65.0%
#339
Turnover %
15.6%
#113
Forced TO %
20.1%
#20
FT rate
30.0%
#311
FT allowed
38.0%
#261
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed−0.7
CA Baptist
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#69 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#13
Def reb %
72.8%
#41
Turnover %
17.9%
#267
Forced TO %
17.0%
#154
FT rate
35.9%
#154
FT allowed
36.6%
#229
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.4

CA Baptist has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#69 of 365) to Chicago St’s −1.0 (#232).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Chicago St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Chicago St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23CJ RayFSr6'6"32-2731.113.54.71.51.347.8%37.2%3.585.2%28.3%
4Marcus TankersleyGSr6'5"30-2930.613.03.12.52.046.5%23.3%1.065.6%29.9%
3Doyel Cockrill IIIGJr6'2"28-924.411.82.62.01.049.4%36.4%5.883.3%29.7%
21Braelon BushGSr5'9"26-925.98.51.93.11.445.6%27.7%3.991.9%23.3%
10Corey SandsGSr6'4"30-2017.42.81.90.60.439.4%25.8%2.173.3%13.1%
8Stephen ByardFSr6'8"22-922.69.84.80.81.448.3%41.7%0.573.4%28.7%
9Malek RobinsonGFr5'11"32-2215.43.01.60.90.836.5%31.8%0.770.4%15.8%
22Dailliss CoxFSr6'6"32-2115.23.13.20.20.448.4%33.3%0.369.2%14.0%
15Joseph OwensFSr6'7"26-211.22.12.20.20.653.7%—0.062.5%13.5%
11Lionel Larvadain IIIGSo6'0"21-111.22.81.10.71.031.6%20.0%0.771.4%24.4%
5Chauncey GibsonGJr6'7"15-415.54.92.31.21.137.8%26.4%3.542.9%30.0%
6Daniel ZatsepinFJr6'4"25-28.70.91.40.10.235.2%50.0%0.150.0%10.1%
25Dakari ThomasGSo6'1"19-05.00.70.60.10.142.9%—0.063.6%8.3%
20CJ DelancyFSr6'9"6-29.21.71.80.30.344.4%—0.0100.0%12.4%
1Deshawn Jean-CharlesGSr6'7"4-38.50.81.30.50.00.0%—0.075.0%7.7%
12DaJuan BatesGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Greg SpateGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Chicago StCA Baptist
Efficiency
102.4
107.2
114.4
103.5
67.2
67.4
—
—
Shooting
45.3%
48.3%
44.0%
47.4%
32.1%
33.4%
75.0%
71.3%
30.0%
35.9%
Ball control & glass
15.6%
17.9%
20.1%
17.0%
28.3%
37.5%
35.0%
27.2%
8.4%
9.9%
8.7%
9.6%
Style
30.9%
32.0%
41.8%
48.4%
11.7%
10.9%
50.3%
39.9%
39.8%
30.7%
Roster
3.49
3.00
6'3.7"
6'6"
—
82.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Chicago St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Chicago St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

CA Baptist
Returning minutes: 82.6%Returning production: 74.2%
Lost
  • Dominique Daniels Jr. 35.2 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • OJ Blankson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chase Mayo Harmon no D1 minutes last season
  • Mouhamadou Dioum no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.