Lindenwood Lions vs Nebraska Cornhuskers basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET · Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
Non-conferenceFS1Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
Lindenwood
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #280
@
25Nebraska
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #16
Wed, Nov 11 · 9:00 PM ET
59.192.4
Projected score
LIN win 0%NEB win 100%
Consensus
Spread
NEB −34.5
open NEB −34.5
Total
151.5
open 151.5
Our line
NEB −33.2
Median of 6 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Nebraskarated 19.0 above average
+19.0
Lindenwoodrated 10.0 below average
+10.0
Home court
+4.2
Our line
NEB −33.2
◂ Lindenwood sideNebraska side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Nebraska. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Lindenwood is the faster team (75.5, #58 of 365) and Nebraska the slower (71.6, #151). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.5
per team, 40 min
Market total
151.5
Consensus · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.2#28
Lindenwood
69.9#226
Nebraska
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
NEB −33.2
Four factors 32.8Not in these stats 0.4
From the four factors
Nebraska has the ball+14.3
Lindenwood has the ball−18.4
Nebraska has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.3% #48 · LIN allows 54.7% #254+7.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.2% #165 · LIN allows 46.2% #347+3.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 45.6% #83 · LIN allows 59.4% #338 · FT 76.9% #75+2.0
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #118 · LIN forces 17.2% #203 · ~12 turnovers+1.7
Lindenwood has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #279 · NEB allows 41.9% #42−8.2
✗Coughs it upTO% 26.5% #344 · NEB forces 24.4% #32 · ~20 turnovers−7.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.0% #201 · NEB allows 22.9% #34 · FT 28.6% #359−3.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 36.4% #92 · NEB allows 29.7% #153+1.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootLindenwoodoffense vs#25Nebraskadefense
Share of shots by zone
Lindenwood shoots
33.3
7.7
15.4
43.6
Nebraska allows
27.8
3.3
12.2
56.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 69.2%#60 | 56.0%#151 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#45 | 27.3%#106 | 34.7% |
| Three | 23.8%#317 | 25.4%#53 | 32.5% |
#25Nebraskaoffense vsLindenwooddefense
Share of shots by zone
Nebraska shoots
36.5
7.1
8.2
48.2
Lindenwood allows
52.6
5.3
10.5
31.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 74.2%#23 | 60.0%#195 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#29 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 85.7%#6 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 35.2%#124 | 52.6%#355 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineLindenwood
−15.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#92
Def reb %
53.8%
#347
Turnover %
26.5%
#344
Forced TO %
17.2%
#203
FT rate
35.0%
#201
FT allowed
59.4%
#338
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−4.8
Ball security−5.9
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−5.6
#25Nebraska
+13.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#29 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#165
Def reb %
70.3%
#153
Turnover %
16.1%
#118
Forced TO %
24.4%
#32
FT rate
45.6%
#83
FT allowed
22.9%
#34
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+4.5
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed+3.9
Nebraska has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.0 (#29 of 365) to Lindenwood’s −15.9 (#350).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notLindenwood2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-3 | 24.0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 75.0% | 60.0% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 18.5% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 21.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 66.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.5% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 21.3 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 62.5% | 35.3% | 5.7 | 50.0% | 26.0% | Active | |
| 14 | G | So | 6'3" | 3-2 | 19.7 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 45.8% | 28.6% | 4.7 | 100.0% | 25.4% | Active | |
| 42 | F | Fr | 6'5" | 3-1 | 18.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 83.3% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 19.7% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0% | 53.3% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 33.5% | Active | |
| 21 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 13.2% | Active | |
| 41 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 14.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 17.0% | Active | |
| 23 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 18.8% | Active | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'11" | 2-1 | 18.0 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 39.5% | Active | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 57.1% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 42.2% | Active | |
| 10 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 1-1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 14.3% | 36.0% | Missed last | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 24.7% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 22.4% | Active |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesLindenwood
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +2.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | East West Phantoms | H | W 115–44 | — | — | — | — | 158.0 | 60.4 | 72.8 |
| Nov 5 | Central Bible Saints | H | W 120–46 | — | — | — | — | 155.9 | 59.8 | 77.0 |
| Nov 2 | TCU | A | L 59–98 | +29.5 | L−9.5 | 154.5 | O157 | 78.1 | 129.8 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | SE Missouri | N | L 66–68 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 149.0 | U134 | 97.2 | 100.1 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Little Rock | N | W 72–62 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U134 | 93.0 | 80.1 | 77.4 |
| Feb 28 | W Illinois | A | W 91–69 | −11.5 | W+10.5 | 150.5 | O160 | 129.0 | 97.8 | 70.5 |
| Feb 26 | E Illinois | H | L 67–71 | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 96.9 | 102.7 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Tennessee Tech | A | L 57–72 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 152.0 | U129 | 86.1 | 108.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 19 | Tennessee St | A | L 80–89 | +3.5 | L−5.5 | 159.0 | O169 | 100.9 | 112.2 | 79.3 |
| Feb 14 | SE Missouri | H | L 61–73 | −2.0 | L−14.0 | 156.5 | U134 | 84.2 | 100.8 | 72.4 |
#25Nebraska
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +6.8
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −7.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Providence | N | W 67–58 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 158.5 | U125 | 95.7 | 82.8 | 70.0 |
| Nov 2 | Le Moyne | H | W 106–64 | −35.0 | W+7.0 | 152.0 | O170 | 144.7 | 87.4 | 73.2 |
| Mar 26 | #9Iowa | N | L 71–77 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 131.0 | O148 | 117.4 | 127.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 21 | #5Vanderbilt | N | W 74–72 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U146 | 115.8 | 112.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 19 | #13Troy | N | W 76–47 | −13.0 | W+16.0 | 139.5 | U123 | 125.1 | 77.4 | 60.8 |
| Mar 13 | #18Purdue | N | L 58–74 | +4.5 | L−11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 95.9 | 122.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 8 | Iowa | H | W 84–75 OT | −5.0 | W+4.0 | 136.5 | O159 | 112.8 | 100.7 | 74.5 |
| Mar 3 | UCLA | A | L 52–72 | −1.0 | L−21.0 | 144.5 | U124 | 85.7 | 118.7 | 60.6 |
| Feb 28 | USC | A | W 82–67 | −5.0 | W+10.0 | 148.5 | O149 | 119.1 | 97.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 25 | Maryland | H | W 74–61 | −16.5 | L−3.5 | 141.0 | U135 | 116.4 | 95.9 | 63.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLindenwood#25Nebraska
Efficiency
99.6
113.1
106.6
93.6
74.2
69.9
18.9
-1.9
Shooting
44.2%
58.3%
48.7%
63.3%
23.8%
35.2%
28.6%
76.9%
35.0%
45.6%
Ball control & glass
26.5%
16.1%
17.2%
24.4%
36.4%
32.2%
46.2%
29.7%
19.9%
3.5%
7.7%
8.3%
Style
35.0%
47.4%
57.6%
40.5%
22.0%
8.1%
41.7%
68.4%
51.5%
35.1%
Roster
2.63
3.42
6'5.1"
6'7.3"
0.0%
39.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLindenwood
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Anias Futrell 30.6 mpg, 16.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mekhi Cooper 29.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Louisiana
- Dontrez Williams 28.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to UNLV
- Jadis Jones 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
- Milos Nenadic 27.5 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Clayton Jackson 25.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Xavier Spencer from UMass Lowell · 33.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Noah Taitz from Utah Valley · 17.3 mpg, 4.4 ppg last season
- Matar Diop from Stetson · 12.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
- Makhan Diouf from Fresno St · 2.7 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Malek Archie from Tarleton St · 0.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Marko Lukanoski no D1 minutes last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#25Nebraska
Returning minutes: 39.8%Returning production: 42.4%
Lost
- Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jamarques Lawrence 27.9 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Berke Buyuktuncel 22.9 mpg, 6.2 ppg · transferred to Vanderbilt
- Jared Garcia 6.7 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kendall Blue 1.9 mpg, 0.4 ppg · transferred to St Thomas
Added
- Trevan Leonhardt from Utah Valley · 34.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Boden Kapke from Boston College · 26.8 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Damon Wilkinson from S Dakota St · 24.0 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
- Sam Orme from Belmont · 23.2 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Taj DeGourville from San Diego St · 19.4 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
- Kadyn Betts from Montana · 1.7 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
Returns 40% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -34.5-112 | 151.5o-108 u-112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5-115 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5-110 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5→-35-110 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -34.5→-35-110 | 151o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5-110 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 151.5o-108 u-117 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -34.5-108 | 151.5o-186 u-163 | — | — |
| Novig | -34.5-106 | 151.5o-113 u-122 | — | — |
DraftKings
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.