CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDaskalakis Athletic Center, Philadelphia, PA
American
Efficiency #234
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-10 conf
@
Drexel
Efficiency #214
2025-26: 17-16 · 11-9 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
67.1
win 34%
Projected
71.8
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: DREX −4.7 · total 138.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Drexel 66.3, American 67.9 → 65.8 possessions
−5.4
Drexel offense vs American defense
−1.5
American offense vs Drexel defense
−2.4
Projected total
138.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Drexel offense vs American defense
−1.5
American offense vs Drexel defense
+2.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Drexel by 4.7
4.7
American side ◂▸ Drexel side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Drexel.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, American is the faster team (66.7, #258 of 365) and Drexel the slower (65.2, #326). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.9
model
Projected team totals
67.1 / 71.8
American / Drexel
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.9#217
American
66.3#331
Drexel

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Drexel averages 65.2 possessions per 40, American 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageDrexel
Where Drexel struggles: ball control
Drexel turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (#321); American forces turnovers on 19.2% of opponent possessions (#40). Expect about 19.6%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageAmerican
Where American struggles: shooting
American shoots an effective 51.5% (#169); Drexel allows 47.1% (#22). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Drexel's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect American at about 41.6% of its shots from three, Drexel about 38.4%.
ClashAmerican
Style clash: 3-point volume
American takes 46.5% of its shots from three; Drexel runs teams off the line (34.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
American has the ball
OffenseDrexel allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #169
47.1% #22
-2.9 pt/100
15.6% #114
16.4% #195
+1.1 pt/100
26.9% #299
31.0% #202
-1.3 pt/100
28.7% #335
35.4% #192
-0.4 pt/100
75.8% #57
—
+0.3 pt/100
American net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Drexel has the ball
OffenseAmerican allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #204
54.4% #313
+1.8 pt/100
19.0% #321
19.2% #40
-3.5 pt/100
31.2% #156
29.4% #127
+0.0 pt/100
31.6% #265
42.1% #324
+0.3 pt/100
66.5% #348
—
-0.5 pt/100
Drexel net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Americanoffense vsDrexeldefense
Share of shots by zone
American shoots
Drexel allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.0%#16153.4%#2858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9237.2%#11939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#12739.2%#21038.0%
Three33.0%#23530.3%#1533.7%
Drexeloffense vsAmericandefense
Share of shots by zone
Drexel shoots
American allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.1%#26862.5%#31158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.7%#18148.0%#33939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.9%#31537.6%#14538.0%
Three35.5%#9035.5%#28333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
American
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#259 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#299
Def reb %
70.6%
#127
Turnover %
15.6%
#114
Forced TO %
19.2%
#40
FT rate
28.7%
#335
FT allowed
42.1%
#324
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−1.8
Drexel
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#286 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#156
Def reb %
69.0%
#202
Turnover %
19.0%
#321
Forced TO %
16.4%
#195
FT rate
31.6%
#265
FT allowed
35.4%
#192
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0

American has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.6 (#259 of 365) to Drexel’s −2.5 (#286).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

American2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted American's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Greg JonesFJr6'6"32-3130.312.54.82.01.545.4%27.0%3.580.7%26.1%
33Matt MayockFJr6'7"31-3128.88.53.71.61.054.5%34.4%3.082.7%17.2%
12Geoff SprouseGSr6'1"32-3226.89.22.31.90.957.0%39.0%6.175.0%19.6%
32Julen IturbeFSo6'7"32-3225.810.54.92.31.856.5%35.2%3.967.2%24.9%
7Wyatt NausadisGSo6'4"32-1822.87.81.41.71.452.0%35.5%3.470.4%22.1%
2Madden CollinsGFr6'5"32-021.813.44.82.01.554.0%22.6%2.970.3%36.2%
4Kade SebastianGFr6'4"32-1621.75.72.71.30.757.1%37.9%2.780.4%14.7%
35Chris EaganFFr6'8"32-011.23.91.70.10.844.8%20.0%0.279.3%25.3%
3Dean HogansGFr6'4"22-07.62.51.10.20.456.7%35.5%1.442.9%18.8%
16Luke BrownFFr6'9"19-06.01.11.50.40.338.1%0.0%0.283.3%14.3%
13Carson McDonaldFFr6'9"4-014.37.35.00.30.868.8%0.0%0.363.6%22.1%
9Matthew CaseyGFr6'4"7-03.10.60.60.10.315.0%12.5%1.150.0%30.4%
8Jack AndersonGFr6'4"6-02.50.30.30.00.050.0%0.0%0.2—7.5%
10Adrian SamuelsGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Eric MichaelsFSo6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Gibraltar ColemanFJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Kamran PrinceGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Noah JonesFSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Shane O'ReillyGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
AmericanDrexel
Efficiency
106.9
104.5
110.1
106.3
67.9
66.3
—
—
Shooting
51.5%
50.7%
53.3%
49.0%
33.0%
35.5%
75.8%
66.5%
28.7%
31.6%
Ball control & glass
15.6%
19.0%
19.2%
16.4%
26.9%
31.2%
29.4%
31.0%
8.9%
11.1%
10.0%
9.3%
Style
46.5%
40.0%
42.6%
42.7%
13.8%
11.0%
49.5%
53.6%
33.2%
33.8%
Roster
2.23
3.24
6'5.2"
6'5.6"
—
83.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
American
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted American's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Drexel
Returning minutes: 83.7%Returning production: 85.1%
Lost
  • Kevon Vanderhorst 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Iona
  • Horace Simmons Jr. 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
  • Moses Hipps no D1 minutes last season
  • Clem Edomwonyin no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 32025-26Drexel 73 – 75 American

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.