South Carolina State Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET · Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN
Non-conferenceACCNXPurcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN
SC State
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #300
@
Notre Dame
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #79
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET
59.285.4
Projected score
SCST win 1%ND win 99%
Consensus
Spread
ND −26.0
open ND −26.0
Total
148.0
open 148.0
Our line
ND −26.3
Our total
144.6
ML SC State
+4500
Median of 2 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Notre Damerated 8.3 above average
+8.3
SC Staterated 13.7 below average
+13.7
Home court
+4.3
Our line
ND −26.3
◂ SC State sideNotre Dame side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.5
Notre Damelower-scoring games
−4.6
SC Statelower-scoring games
−2.3
Our line
144.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Notre Dame.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, SC State is the faster team (73.7, #91 of 365) and Notre Dame the slower (69.1, #234). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.4
per team, 40 min
Market total
148.0
Consensus · open 148.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.7#62
SC State
70.2#209
Notre Dame
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ND −26.3
Four factors 4.5Not in these stats 21.8
From the four factors
Notre Dame has the ball+0.7
SC State has the ball−3.8
Notre Dame has the ball
✓Gets to the lineFTR 36.4% #184 · SCST allows 71.3% #356 · FT 76.2% #82+2.2
✗Coughs it upTO% 17.4% #160 · SCST forces 21.0% #85 · ~14 turnovers−1.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 34.0% #126 · SCST allows 27.1% #109−0.2
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 58.7% #45 · SCST allows 40.6% #31−0.1
SC State has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 14.9% #84 · ND forces 26.1% #22 · ~15 turnovers−2.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · ND allows 21.7% #25−2.7
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · ND allows 52.8% #217+1.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 33.9% #216 · ND allows 41.7% #229 · FT 76.7% #76+0.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSC Stateoffense vsNotre Damedefense
Share of shots by zone
SC State shoots
28.6
12.6
19.3
39.5
Notre Dame allows
22.8
6.1
20.2
50.9
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.1%#300 | 73.1%#332 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 53.3%#73 | 28.6%#100 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 26.1%#242 | 34.8%#182 | 34.7% |
| Three | 38.8%#74 | 35.3%#235 | 32.5% |
Notre Dameoffense vsSC Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Notre Dame shoots
31.7
11.5
12.2
44.6
SC State allows
40.4
3.2
11.7
44.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.4%#132 | 50.0%#75 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.2%#114 | 27.3%#106 | 34.7% |
| Three | 43.8%#24 | 22.7%#28 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSC State
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
72.9%
#109
Turnover %
14.9%
#84
Forced TO %
21.0%
#85
FT rate
33.9%
#216
FT allowed
71.3%
#356
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed−8.7
Notre Dame
+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#60 of 365
Off reb %
34.0%
#126
Def reb %
78.3%
#25
Turnover %
17.4%
#160
Forced TO %
26.1%
#22
FT rate
36.4%
#184
FT allowed
41.7%
#229
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+3.3
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+5.7
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Notre Dame has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#60 of 365) to SC State’s −4.2 (#241).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notSC State2026-27 numbers · last game: Chicago St, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PG | Jr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 27.0 | 28 | — | Bench | 8.3 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 63.2% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 15.5% | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 25.3 | 31 | — | Started last | 15.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 55.1% | 38.2% | 11.3 | 80.0% | 29.9% | |
| 12 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 21.0 | 14 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 56.7% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 18.8% | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-3 | 18.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 9.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 63.6% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 16.3 | 23 | — | Started last | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 68.2% | 60.0% | 1.7 | 100.0% | 16.5% | |
| 55 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 15.3 | 20 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 26.6% | |
| 6 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 13.3 | 10 | — | Bench | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 70.0% | 31.6% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 16 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 38.2% | 27.3% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 27.3% | |
| 2 | PG | Fr | 5'11" | 3-0 | 11.0 | 8 | — | Bench | 6.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 56.7% | 41.7% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 26.4% | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 22 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.3% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Active | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 24.0% | |
| 92 | F | So | 6'10" | 3-0 | 7.3 | — | — | Active | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 10.1% | |
| 23 | F | So | 6'8" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 3 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 30.3% | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 6.7 | — | — | Active | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 26.9% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 44.5% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSC State
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
0-0
Road
2-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +14.2
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +2.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Chicago St | A | W 82–67 | +2.0 | W+17.0 | 144.5 | O149 | 114.7 | 93.7 | 71.5 |
| Nov 6 | SC Upstate | A | W 78–70 | +3.5 | W+11.5 | 148.5 | U148 | 102.9 | 92.3 | 75.8 |
| Nov 2 | Morris Hornets | H | W 94–55 | — | — | — | — | 114.2 | 66.8 | 82.3 |
| Mar 13 | Howard | N | L 61–78 | +15.5 | L−1.5 | 146.0 | U139 | 82.8 | 105.9 | 73.6 |
| Mar 12 | Norfolk St | N | W 88–82 | +8.5 | W+14.5 | 144.5 | O170 | 116.6 | 108.6 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | NC Central | A | W 80–64 | +7.5 | W+23.5 | 141.5 | O144 | 114.6 | 91.7 | 69.8 |
| Mar 2 | Delaware St | A | W 61–59 | +3.0 | W+5.0 | 134.5 | U120 | 99.9 | 96.6 | 61.1 |
| Feb 28 | MD Eastern | A | L 57–69 | +6.0 | L−6.0 | 132.5 | U126 | 85.9 | 104.0 | 66.3 |
| Feb 25 | Morgan St | H | L 83–90 | +1.5 | L−5.5 | 154.5 | O173 | 113.8 | 123.4 | 73.0 |
| Feb 21 | Norfolk St | A | L 71–90 | +10.0 | L−9.0 | 140.5 | O161 | 99.5 | 126.1 | 71.4 |
Notre Dame
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +3.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +9.2
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | E Illinois | H | W 94–70 | −28.0 | L−4.0 | 139.5 | O164 | 128.2 | 95.4 | 73.3 |
| Nov 5 | Mercyhurst | H | W 83–56 | −21.5 | W+5.5 | 136.5 | O139 | 131.4 | 88.7 | 63.1 |
| Nov 1 | Villanova | N | W 74–72 | +7.0 | W+9.0 | 145.5 | O146 | 104.6 | 101.8 | 70.7 |
| Mar 7 | Boston College | A | L 69–77 | −2.5 | L−10.5 | 142.0 | O146 | 91.7 | 102.4 | 75.2 |
| Mar 4 | Stanford | H | L 78–86 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 147.0 | O164 | 122.9 | 135.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 28 | NC State | H | W 96–90 OT | +6.5 | W+12.5 | 155.0 | O186 | 134.5 | 126.1 | 71.4 |
| Feb 24 | #1Duke | H | L 56–100 | +17.0 | L−27.0 | 142.0 | O156 | 78.3 | 139.8 | 71.5 |
| Feb 21 | Pitt | A | L 68–73 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 139.0 | O141 | 108.4 | 116.4 | 62.7 |
| Feb 14 | Georgia Tech | H | W 89–74 | −6.0 | W+9.0 | 150.0 | O163 | 129.3 | 107.5 | 68.8 |
| Feb 10 | SMU | A | L 81–89 | +10.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O170 | 117.2 | 128.8 | 69.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSC StateNotre Dame
Efficiency
99.5
111.9
108.9
104.0
72.7
70.2
-13.4
-5.4
Shooting
50.0%
58.7%
44.9%
52.7%
38.8%
43.8%
76.7%
76.2%
33.9%
36.4%
Ball control & glass
14.9%
17.4%
21.0%
26.1%
29.7%
34.0%
27.1%
21.7%
4.8%
10.6%
2.6%
10.8%
Style
38.6%
46.2%
36.3%
32.7%
9.4%
15.1%
59.3%
58.3%
52.0%
34.2%
Roster
2.31
3.28
6'5.5"
6'5.8"
29.6%
34.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSC State
Returning minutes: 29.6%Returning production: 26.8%
Lost
- Jayden Johnson 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
- Florian Tenebay 22.2 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Obie Bronston Jr. 17.8 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to Cleveland St
- Cameron Clark 16.8 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Rayniel Wright 16.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- James Morrow 15.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Jacksonville
Added
- DeShaun Jackson Jr. from Mercyhurst · 22.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
- Brian Harris new to D1 · 16.0 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
- Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season
- Treven Raymon no D1 minutes last season
- Bryce Adams no D1 minutes last season
- Andre NGomabie no D1 minutes last season
Returns 30% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Notre Dame
Returning minutes: 34.3%Returning production: 29.4%
Lost
- Cole Certa 26.9 mpg, 12.8 ppg · transferred to Clemson
- Carson Towt 26.0 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Haralson 23.2 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Tennessee
- Garrett Sundra 17.9 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to James Madison
- Sir Mohammed 16.4 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Penn
- Markus Burton 9.7 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Indiana
Added
- Ethan Roberts from Penn · 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
- Devin Brown from Davidson · 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
- Logan Duncomb from Winthrop · 22.9 mpg, 17.2 ppg last season
- Braeden Smith from Gonzaga · 17.1 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
- Bryce Ruglass Dortch from Rutgers · 13.2 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Yoro Diallo no D1 minutes last season
Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | -26-110 | 148o-110 u-110 | — | +4500 |
| BetOnline | -26-110 | 148o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -4900 | +3233 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +2400 |
Fanatics
BetOnline
Kalshi
Polymarketopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 11
- FDU at East Texas A&M · 11:30 AM ET
- Kansas City vs Florida A&M · 12:00 PM ET
- Dartmouth at UAlbany · 1:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at UC Davis · 2:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
- Saint Joseph's vs South Florida · 3:00 PM ET
- NC A&T at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- Bethune at San Diego St · 5:00 PM ET
- Penn at Navy · 5:30 PM ET
- NC Central at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at IU Indy · 6:30 PM ET
- Charleston at Temple · 6:30 PM ET
- Marquette at Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
- UMass Lowell at UMass · 7:00 PM ET
- Cornell at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
- American at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at West Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
- William & Mary at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at VCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Colgate at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at ETSU · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Delaware · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Saint Peter's at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Stony Brook at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Norfolk St · 7:00 PM ET
- Kent State at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Indiana St · 7:00 PM ET
- Pepperdine at Sam Houston · 7:30 PM ET
- Santa Clara at North Texas · 8:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
- Jax State at Houston · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
- Robert Morris at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
- Nevada at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- SF Austin at Abilene Chrstn · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Nebraska · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at UCLA · 9:00 PM ET
- UTSA at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- Pacific at Long Beach St · 10:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon · 10:00 PM ET
- USC at California · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.