Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Houston Cougars basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET · Fertitta Center, Houston, TX
Non-conferenceESPN+Fertitta Center, Houston, TX
Jax State
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #189
@
8Houston
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #3
Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET
52.585.0
Projected score
JXST win 0%HOU win 100%
Consensus
Spread
HOU −34.5
open HOU −35.0
Total
137.5
open 137.5
Our line
HOU −32.5
Median of 8 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Houstonrated 24.5 above average
+24.5
Jax Staterated 3.7 below average
+3.7
Home court
+4.2
Our line
HOU −32.5
◂ Jax State sideHouston side ▸
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Houston. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Houston is the faster team (72.8, #115 of 365) and Jax State the slower (61.7, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
137.5
Consensus · open 137.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.5#343
Jax State
69.8#234
Houston
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
HOU −32.5
Four factors 17.4Not in these stats 15.1
From the four factors
Houston has the ball+9.0
Jax State has the ball−8.3
Houston has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.1% #88 · JXST forces 11.7% #336 · ~8 turnovers+4.9
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.7% #60 · JXST allows 50.0% #163+3.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.5% #77 · JXST allows 25.0% #61+0.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 38.7% #152 · JXST allows 23.9% #38 · FT 77.1% #73−0.2
Jax State has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 18.2% #186 · HOU forces 24.0% #36 · ~15 turnovers−3.0
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.3% #268 · HOU allows 28.4% #130−2.1
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 54.7% #115 · HOU allows 41.5% #40−1.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.6% #294 · HOU allows 31.6% #122 · FT 58.8% #323−1.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootJax Stateoffense vs#8Houstondefense
Share of shots by zone
Jax State shoots
15.1
7.5
18.9
58.5
Houston allows
21.8
9.2
11.5
57.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 75.0%#14 | 52.6%#105 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 37.5%#178 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 40.0%#212 | 34.7% |
| Three | 41.0%#54 | 26.2%#67 | 32.5% |
#8Houstonoffense vsJax Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Houston shoots
35.1
18.1
21.3
25.5
Jax State allows
26.5
24.5
10.2
38.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 72.7%#28 | 53.8%#121 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 70.6%#27 | 66.7%#322 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#166 | 60.0%#329 | 34.7% |
| Three | 36.7%#103 | 18.5%#11 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineJax State
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365
Off reb %
26.3%
#268
Def reb %
75.0%
#61
Turnover %
18.2%
#186
Forced TO %
11.7%
#336
FT rate
26.6%
#294
FT allowed
23.9%
#38
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding+2.2
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers−4.5
Foul shots drawn−2.8
Foul shots allowed+3.6
#8Houston
+11.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#42 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#77
Def reb %
71.6%
#130
Turnover %
15.1%
#88
Forced TO %
24.0%
#36
FT rate
38.7%
#152
FT allowed
31.6%
#122
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.0
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security+2.2
Forcing turnovers+4.2
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.6
Houston has more extra scoring chances per game: +11.5 (#42 of 365) to Jax State’s −3.2 (#225).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notJax State2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 76.3% | 64.3% | 7.0 | 83.3% | 20.7% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 32.5 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 65.5% | 41.7% | 12.0 | 75.0% | 33.4% | Active | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 28.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 46.7% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 21.5% | Active | |
| 3 | F | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 26.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 43.8% | 35.7% | 7.0 | 50.0% | 34.5% | Active | |
| 10 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-2 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 17.9% | Active | |
| 0 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.0% | Active | |
| 11 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0% | 100.0% | 0.5 | 75.0% | 12.8% | Active | |
| 4 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 116.7% | 80.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.6% | Active | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 19.2% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 5'11" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 1.5 | — | 15.2% | Active | |
| 20 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.7% | Missed last | |
| 12 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57.1% | 33.3% | 6.0 | — | 38.2% | Missed last | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 26.2% | Missed last | |
| 9 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Active |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesJax State
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +2.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +23.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | South Alabama | A | L 80–83 2OT | +5.0 | W+2.0 | 139.5 | O163 | 103.8 | 107.7 | 77.1 |
| Nov 2 | LaGrange Panthers | H | W 123–59 | — | — | — | — | 147.2 | 70.6 | 83.6 |
| Mar 10 | New Mexico St | N | L 63–68 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 98.1 | 105.9 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | UTEP | A | W 64–61 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 139.0 | U125 | 95.6 | 91.1 | 67.0 |
| Mar 5 | New Mexico St | A | L 75–77 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 98.8 | 101.5 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | Liberty | H | L 78–81 | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 122.8 | 127.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 26 | Delaware | H | W 80–70 OT | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 119.8 | 104.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | Sam Houston | A | L 78–82 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 115.7 | 121.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 18 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 71–77 | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 133.0 | O148 | 101.1 | 109.6 | 70.2 |
| Feb 14 | New Mexico St | H | L 70–79 | −2.5 | L−11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 106.3 | 119.9 | 65.9 |
#8Houston
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +3.8
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +12.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | California | N | W 86–68 | −20.0 | L−2.0 | 143.0 | O154 | 123.0 | 97.2 | 69.9 |
| Nov 2 | La Salle | H | W 94–55 | −29.5 | W+9.5 | 134.5 | O149 | 124.1 | 72.6 | 75.8 |
| Mar 26 | #3Illinois | N | L 55–65 | −2.5 | L−12.5 | 139.5 | U120 | 94.1 | 111.2 | 58.5 |
| Mar 21 | #10Texas A&M | N | W 88–57 | −10.0 | W+21.0 | 143.0 | O145 | 134.5 | 87.1 | 65.5 |
| Mar 19 | #15Idaho | N | W 78–47 | −24.0 | W+7.0 | 137.5 | U125 | 118.8 | 71.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 14 | #2Arizona | N | L 74–79 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 138.5 | O153 | 112.6 | 120.2 | 65.7 |
| Mar 13 | #14Kansas | N | W 69–47 | −5.5 | W+16.5 | 138.0 | U116 | 116.4 | 79.3 | 59.3 |
| Mar 12 | BYU | N | W 73–66 | −9.5 | L−2.5 | 148.0 | U139 | 105.4 | 95.3 | 69.3 |
| Mar 7 | Oklahoma St | A | W 82–75 | −13.5 | L−6.5 | 150.5 | O157 | 122.6 | 112.1 | 66.9 |
| Mar 4 | Baylor | H | W 77–64 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 144.5 | U141 | 118.2 | 98.2 | 65.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeJax State#8Houston
Efficiency
103.6
116.8
105.4
92.0
67.5
69.8
-3.4
-0.3
Shooting
54.7%
57.7%
44.0%
58.5%
41.0%
36.7%
58.8%
77.1%
26.6%
38.7%
Ball control & glass
18.2%
15.1%
11.7%
24.0%
26.3%
37.5%
25.0%
28.4%
9.1%
8.2%
0.0%
4.3%
Style
60.9%
24.2%
27.5%
52.2%
17.5%
18.3%
74.1%
59.1%
41.2%
39.3%
Roster
2.59
3.15
6'6"
6'5.3"
0.0%
23.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputJax State
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Jacoby Hill 30.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
- Mostapha El Moutaouakkil 29.9 mpg, 19.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- AC Bryant 26.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaye Nash 25.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to UConn
- Emondrek Erkins-Ford 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to Western KY
- Iaroslav Niagu 18.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Colorado
Added
- Jordan Stiemke from Loyola MD · 27.5 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Chris Lockett Jr. from Jacksonville · 24.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
- Ma'Shy Hill from Abilene Chrstn · 10.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- Naas Cunningham from UNLV · 8.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Leon Horner from Texas Tech · 6.1 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Brandon Walker from Mississippi St · 5.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#8Houston
Returning minutes: 23.4%Returning production: 25.7%
Lost
- Milos Uzan 33.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kingston Flemings 31.6 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Emanuel Sharp 29.4 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Cenac Jr. 24.9 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isiah Harwell 11.9 mpg, 3.1 ppg · transferred to Gonzaga
- Kalifa Sakho 11.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Corey Hadnot II from Purdue FW · 33.2 mpg, 20.4 ppg last season
- Delrecco Gillespie from Kent State · 32.2 mpg, 17.7 ppg last season
- Braden East from Lamar · 23.1 mpg, 12.4 ppg last season
- Chendall Weaver from Texas · 20.9 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Dedan Thomas Jr. from LSU · 14.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
- Ikenna Alozie no D1 minutes last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -34.5-112 | 137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5-120 | 137.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5-102 | 137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5-110 | 137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -35-110 | 138→137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -35-105 | 137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5-110 | 137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5-115 | 137.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 137.5o-117 u+100 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -34.5-127 | 137.5o-108 u-108 | — | +388 |
| Novig | — | 137.5o-117 u-108 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 11
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- Loyola Chicago at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
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- Penn at Navy · 5:30 PM ET
- NC Central at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
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- Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.