CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.0 against +3.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St Bonaventure.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and St Bonaventure the slower (67.5, #222). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.8%#77 | 57.6%#135 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 51.5%#7 | 31.9%#21 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.5%#31 | 45.6%#353 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#14 | 36.0%#299 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.2%#186 | 60.7%#256 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#71 | 44.6%#285 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#163 | 41.7%#293 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.4%#22 | 37.5%#349 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSt Bonaventure has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#147 of 365) to Cornell’s −2.4 (#281).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Cooper Noard | G | Sr | 6'2" | 28-28 | 27.5 | 18.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 61.6% | 37.6% | 7.6 | 90.3% | 31.6% | |
| 8 | Adam Hinton | G | Sr | 6'4" | 28-28 | 24.6 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 59.1% | 41.5% | 4.8 | 77.6% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | Jacob Beccles | G | Jr | 6'3" | 28-27 | 23.4 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 52.9% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 67.3% | 19.8% | |
| 22 | Jake Fiegen | G | Sr | 6'4" | 24-17 | 26.1 | 17.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 64.9% | 41.4% | 5.5 | 77.2% | 30.4% | |
| 21 | Kaspar Sepp | F | Jr | 6'7" | 28-15 | 18.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 50.5% | 23.8% | 0.8 | 66.0% | 17.2% | |
| 24 | Josh Baldwin | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-13 | 19.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 52.2% | 33.9% | 2.3 | 70.0% | 24.9% | |
| 7 | Anthony Nimani | G | So | 6'4" | 22-0 | 17.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 65.5% | 52.0% | 1.1 | 84.6% | 16.4% | |
| 23 | DJ Nix | F | Sr | 6'6" | 27-11 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 53.8% | 37.3% | 1.9 | 56.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Gioacchino Panzini | F | So | 6'5" | 26-0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 77.6% | 50.0% | 0.9 | 57.1% | 15.9% | |
| 14 | Corbin Zentner | G | Sr | 5'9" | 24-1 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 38.6% | 2.4 | 66.7% | 14.6% | |
| 0 | DaMaryon Fishburn | G | Jr | 6'5" | 21-0 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 83.3% | 58.3% | 0.6 | 57.1% | 14.2% | |
| 10 | Mateen Rafiq | G | So | 6'0" | 18-0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 66.4% | 46.3% | 2.3 | 71.4% | 20.2% | |
| 2 | Ian Imegwu | F | Jr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 69.2% | 48.9% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 3 | Jax Abalos | F | Fr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 53.6% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 80.0% | 21.7% | |
| 55 | AJ LaBeau | F | Jr | 6'10" | 10-0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 33.3% | 19.3% | |
| 12 | Ryan Burbach | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 31.6% | 15.4% | 2.6 | 100.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Ty Iwanonkiw | F | So | 6'9" | 3-0 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 44.4% | 3.0 | — | 19.2% | |
| 13 | AJ Rodriguez | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Blake Lecklitner | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Elijah Griffin | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Darryl Simmons II | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 35.5 | 16.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 54.5% | 42.5% | 6.5 | 89.9% | 26.2% | |
| 00 | Frank Mitchell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 34-33 | 33.6 | 16.3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.9% | 30.1% | |
| 5 | Dasonte Bowen | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 44.2% | 32.7% | 1.7 | 85.2% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | Cayden Charles | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 33.3 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 48.6% | 32.6% | 2.6 | 79.4% | 23.3% | |
| 3 | Daniel Egbuniwe | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-19 | 23.1 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 54.3% | 39.7% | 3.9 | 74.0% | 21.3% | |
| 32 | Joe Grahovac | F | So | 6'10" | 34-14 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 56.9% | 36.4% | 1.9 | 87.5% | 14.8% | |
| 20 | Achille Lonati | G | Fr | 6'5" | 29-1 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 46.4% | 25.5% | 1.8 | 61.5% | 21.9% | |
| 2 | Amar'e Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 56.1% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 60.0% | 21.8% | |
| 1 | Ilia Ermakov | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 59.1% | 42.9% | 1.6 | 0.0% | 20.0% | |
| 30 | Broek Ostrom | G | Sr | 6'2" | 4-1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 29.7% | |
| 15 | Jack DeRose | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 39.7% | |
| 21 | Xander Wedlow | C | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 29.1% | |
| 7 | Brayden Jackson | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | John Ikpotokin | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Cooper Noard | G | Sr | 6'2" | 28-28 | 27.5 | 18.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 61.6% | 37.6% | 7.6 | 90.3% | 31.6% | |
| 8 | Adam Hinton | G | Sr | 6'4" | 28-28 | 24.6 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 59.1% | 41.5% | 4.8 | 77.6% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | Jacob Beccles | G | Jr | 6'3" | 28-27 | 23.4 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 52.9% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 67.3% | 19.8% | |
| 22 | Jake Fiegen | G | Sr | 6'4" | 24-17 | 26.1 | 17.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 64.9% | 41.4% | 5.5 | 77.2% | 30.4% | |
| 21 | Kaspar Sepp | F | Jr | 6'7" | 28-15 | 18.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 50.5% | 23.8% | 0.8 | 66.0% | 17.2% | |
| 24 | Josh Baldwin | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-13 | 19.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 52.2% | 33.9% | 2.3 | 70.0% | 24.9% | |
| 7 | Anthony Nimani | G | So | 6'4" | 22-0 | 17.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 65.5% | 52.0% | 1.1 | 84.6% | 16.4% | |
| 23 | DJ Nix | F | Sr | 6'6" | 27-11 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 53.8% | 37.3% | 1.9 | 56.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Gioacchino Panzini | F | So | 6'5" | 26-0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 77.6% | 50.0% | 0.9 | 57.1% | 15.9% | |
| 14 | Corbin Zentner | G | Sr | 5'9" | 24-1 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 38.6% | 2.4 | 66.7% | 14.6% | |
| 0 | DaMaryon Fishburn | G | Jr | 6'5" | 21-0 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 83.3% | 58.3% | 0.6 | 57.1% | 14.2% | |
| 10 | Mateen Rafiq | G | So | 6'0" | 18-0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 66.4% | 46.3% | 2.3 | 71.4% | 20.2% | |
| 2 | Ian Imegwu | F | Jr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 69.2% | 48.9% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 3 | Jax Abalos | F | Fr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 53.6% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 80.0% | 21.7% | |
| 55 | AJ LaBeau | F | Jr | 6'10" | 10-0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 33.3% | 19.3% | |
| 12 | Ryan Burbach | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 31.6% | 15.4% | 2.6 | 100.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Ty Iwanonkiw | F | So | 6'9" | 3-0 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 44.4% | 3.0 | — | 19.2% | |
| 13 | AJ Rodriguez | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Blake Lecklitner | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Elijah Griffin | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14 | Yale | N | L 76–88 | +3.5 | L−8.5 | 163.5 | O164 | 125.2 | 144.9 | 60.7 |
| Mar 7 | Dartmouth | A | W 111–90 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 166.0 | O201 | 142.5 | 115.5 | 77.9 |
| Feb 28 | Brown | H | W 86–80 | −9.5 | L−3.5 | 157.5 | O166 | 119.1 | 110.7 | 72.2 |
| Feb 27 | Yale | H | W 72–69 | +4.0 | W+7.0 | 164.0 | U141 | 112.1 | 107.4 | 64.3 |
| Feb 21 | Harvard | H | L 54–73 | −5.5 | L−24.5 | 155.0 | U127 | 89.9 | 121.5 | 60.1 |
| Feb 14 | Penn | A | L 76–82 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 170.0 | U158 | 99.7 | 107.6 | 76.2 |
| Feb 13 | Princeton | A | W 89–65 | −3.5 | W+20.5 | 154.5 | U154 | 140.6 | 102.7 | 63.3 |
| Feb 7 | Columbia | A | W 88–67 | −1.0 | W+20.0 | 170.5 | U155 | 133.9 | 101.9 | 65.7 |
| Jan 31 | Penn | H | L 81–91 | −7.0 | L−17.0 | 174.5 | U172 | 112.3 | 126.1 | 72.1 |
| Jan 30 | Princeton | H | W 87–64 | −7.0 | W+16.0 | 159.5 | U151 | 141.5 | 104.1 | 61.5 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Dayton | N | L 63–68 | +5.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 95.7 | 103.3 | 65.8 |
| Mar 12 | George Mason | N | W 63–57 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 142.5 | U120 | 103.5 | 93.7 | 60.9 |
| Mar 11 | La Salle | N | W 99–80 | −5.5 | W+13.5 | 145.5 | O179 | 138.9 | 112.3 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | Davidson | H | L 63–68 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 98.2 | 106.0 | 64.2 |
| Mar 4 | G Washington | A | L 82–91 OT | +7.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O173 | 103.7 | 115.1 | 79.1 |
| Feb 28 | George Mason | A | L 58–71 | +3.5 | L−9.5 | 147.0 | U129 | 97.9 | 119.8 | 59.3 |
| Feb 26 | Rhode Island | H | W 94–76 | −3.0 | W+15.0 | 143.0 | O170 | 134.7 | 108.9 | 69.8 |
| Feb 21 | Richmond | A | L 94–99 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 148.5 | O193 | 128.0 | 134.8 | 73.4 |
| Feb 18 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 65–71 | −5.0 | L−11.0 | 147.5 | U136 | 93.5 | 102.1 | 69.5 |
| Feb 14 | Duquesne | H | L 73–78 | −2.0 | L−7.0 | 152.5 | U151 | 105.8 | 113.0 | 69.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
- Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia
- John Ikpotokin no D1 minutes last season
- Brayden Jackson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.