CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceReed Green Coliseum, Hattiesburg, MS
Jackson St
Efficiency #353
2025-26: 12-21 · 11-9 conf
@
Southern Miss
Efficiency #218
2025-26: 19-16 · 12-10 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
69.3
win 13%
Projected
82.3
win 87%
No line posted yet.
Model: USM −12.9 · total 151.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Southern Miss 69.4, Jackson St 69.8 → 70.9 possessions
+5.5
Southern Miss offense vs Jackson St defense
+3.3
Jackson St offense vs Southern Miss defense
−5.5
Projected total
151.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Southern Miss offense vs Jackson St defense
+3.3
Jackson St offense vs Southern Miss defense
+5.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Southern Miss by 12.9
12.9
Jackson St side ◂▸ Southern Miss side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.5 against a projected 151.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Southern Miss.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Jackson St is the faster team (71.0, #51 of 365) and Southern Miss the slower (69.6, #110). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.6
model
Projected team totals
69.3 / 82.3
Jackson St / Southern Miss
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#65
Jackson St
69.4#89
Southern Miss

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageJackson St
Where Jackson St struggles: shooting
Jackson St shoots an effective 45.7% (#354); Southern Miss allows 51.4% (#177). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSouthern Miss
Where Southern Miss scores: the offensive glass
Southern Miss rebounds 32.5% of its own misses (#103); Jackson St lets opponents grab 37.2% of their own misses (#359). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Southern Miss averages 69.6 possessions per 40, Jackson St 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversJackson St
Jackson St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Jackson St's offense.
ClashJackson St
Style match: ball movement
Jackson St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); Southern Miss breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.7% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Southern Miss) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jackson St at about 42.5% of its shots from three, Southern Miss about 31.0%.
Jackson St has the ball
OffenseSouthern Miss allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #354
51.4% #177
-4.6 pt/100
19.4% #336
17.8% #109
-2.6 pt/100
29.7% #215
28.8% #97
-0.8 pt/100
37.4% #117
43.6% #343
+0.8 pt/100
75.8% #55
—
+0.3 pt/100
Jackson St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.9 pts/100
Southern Miss has the ball
OffenseJackson St allowsvs D1 avg
49.0% #289
53.0% #267
-0.6 pt/100
18.4% #290
16.5% #185
-0.9 pt/100
32.5% #103
37.2% #359
+2.9 pt/100
43.2% #18
41.9% #319
+1.0 pt/100
73.6% #146
—
+0.1 pt/100
Southern Miss net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Jackson Stoffense vsSouthern Missdefense
Share of shots by zone
Jackson St shoots
Southern Miss allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.1%#34857.8%#13958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.0%#12137.7%#12939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.4%#30535.6%#9338.0%
Three31.4%#31134.5%#21733.7%
Southern Missoffense vsJackson Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern Miss shoots
Jackson St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.5%#10860.9%#26658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.9%#28929.3%#1239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18731.1%#1138.0%
Three28.9%#35534.8%#23633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Jackson St
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#215
Def reb %
62.8%
#359
Turnover %
19.4%
#336
Forced TO %
16.5%
#185
FT rate
37.4%
#117
FT allowed
41.9%
#319
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−2.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Southern Miss
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#142 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#103
Def reb %
71.2%
#97
Turnover %
18.4%
#290
Forced TO %
17.8%
#109
FT rate
43.2%
#18
FT allowed
43.6%
#343
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed−2.2

Southern Miss has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#142 of 365) to Jackson St’s −5.4 (#350).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jackson St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Jayme Mitchell Jr.GJr6'5"32-3132.814.54.90.92.347.3%33.2%5.978.7%27.5%
24Daeshun RuffinGSr5'10"28-2833.523.32.85.33.847.2%30.9%5.084.3%41.5%
1Dorian McMillianGSo6'3"28-2429.511.94.41.42.147.2%32.8%6.275.0%26.4%
4Devin ReeFSr6'9"33-1820.85.43.00.70.943.6%27.6%3.088.2%17.9%
0Tamarion HooverGSo6'4"30-419.85.93.10.30.552.4%34.7%3.987.5%16.6%
12Delyle WilliamsGJr6'3"31-517.22.92.41.31.233.5%25.6%1.460.0%16.3%
20Raevon ThomasFSr6'9"25-1517.63.33.30.30.859.5%38.9%0.756.0%11.7%
8Dionjahe ThomasFJr6'8"23-1918.45.15.30.41.248.3%33.3%0.156.4%19.0%
2Jalen TatumGJr6'4"11-626.57.72.61.81.639.8%41.7%1.163.0%21.0%
21Kobe ButlerFFr6'7"27-410.41.81.80.10.439.6%0.0%0.183.3%12.8%
10Ebo WilsonCSo6'10"18-710.80.72.10.20.728.6%—0.00.0%10.3%
11Mike WilliamsGFr6'2"8-319.95.52.30.82.028.4%15.0%2.583.3%26.6%
9Deyan KolevFFr6'9"17-17.50.91.00.10.433.3%18.2%0.650.0%12.8%
7Kedrick SimmonsFFr6'6"8-011.01.61.80.50.540.0%25.0%1.050.0%12.5%
13Cael JonesGFr6'1"5-03.01.00.60.00.050.0%100.0%0.20.0%19.5%
5Keiveon HuntGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Jackson StSouthern Miss
Efficiency
101.0
106.0
115.6
108.1
69.8
69.4
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
49.0%
44.6%
51.3%
31.4%
28.9%
75.8%
73.6%
37.4%
43.2%
Ball control & glass
19.4%
18.4%
16.5%
17.8%
29.7%
32.5%
37.2%
28.8%
11.1%
10.0%
12.4%
10.7%
Style
43.3%
28.7%
34.3%
48.6%
15.2%
15.3%
45.8%
43.8%
32.0%
31.7%
Roster
2.87
3.46
6'4.6"
6'5.8"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Jackson St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Southern Miss
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Southern Miss's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.