CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLBS Financial Credit Union Pyramid, Long Beach, CA
Pacific
Efficiency #126
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
@
Long Beach St
Efficiency #267
2025-26: 10-22 · 6-14 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · 10:00 PM ET
72.4
win 55%
Projected
71.0
win 45%
No line posted yet.
Model: PAC −1.3 · total 143.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Long Beach St 69.1, Pacific 66.4 → 67.1 possessions
−2.5
Long Beach St offense vs Pacific defense
−3.7
Pacific offense vs Long Beach St defense
+1.5
Projected total
143.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Long Beach St offense vs Pacific defense
−3.7
Pacific offense vs Long Beach St defense
−1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Pacific by 1.3
1.3
Pacific side ◂▸ Long Beach St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.5 against a projected 143.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Long Beach St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Long Beach St is the faster team (70.8, #60 of 365) and Pacific the slower (65.8, #300). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.4
model
Projected team totals
72.4 / 71.0
Pacific / Long Beach St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#325
Pacific
69.1#118
Long Beach St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLong Beach St
Where Long Beach St struggles: the offensive glass
Long Beach St rebounds 26.2% of its own misses (#315); Pacific lets opponents grab 25.0% of their own misses (#8). Expect about 24.8%, 5.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePacific
Where Pacific struggles: ball control
Pacific turns it over on 20.1% of possessions (#349); Long Beach St forces turnovers on 17.5% of opponent possessions (#120). Expect about 19.1%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Long Beach St averages 70.8 possessions per 40, Pacific 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashPacific
Style match: 3-point volume
Pacific rarely shoots threes (35.3% of its shots); Long Beach St runs teams off the line (35.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.5% — both habits push the same way.
ClashPacific
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Pacific (#42 in offensive rebounding) against Long Beach St (#60 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.5%. Historically Pacific's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
ClashLong Beach St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Long Beach St rarely shoots threes (34.8% of its shots); Pacific lets opponents take 42.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Pacific has the ball
OffenseLong Beach St allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #140
53.7% #290
+2.5 pt/100
20.1% #349
17.5% #120
-2.9 pt/100
35.3% #42
27.8% #60
+1.3 pt/100
30.5% #297
42.3% #327
+0.3 pt/100
75.5% #66
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pacific net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
Long Beach St has the ball
OffensePacific allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #207
50.0% #101
-1.4 pt/100
18.0% #270
15.1% #273
+0.4 pt/100
26.2% #315
25.0% #8
-3.4 pt/100
30.7% #287
36.3% #219
-0.2 pt/100
72.5% #185
—
+0.0 pt/100
Long Beach St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Pacificoffense vsLong Beach Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Pacific shoots
Long Beach St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.6%#31163.4%#33458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.4%#5740.0%#19139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.9%#1639.7%#23038.0%
Three35.8%#6534.4%#21233.7%
Long Beach Stoffense vsPacificdefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Beach St shoots
Pacific allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.6%#2757.0%#11358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.7%#20139.7%#18339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.4%#20937.7%#15138.0%
Three32.7%#24534.7%#23333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Pacific
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#252 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#42
Def reb %
75.0%
#8
Turnover %
20.1%
#349
Forced TO %
15.1%
#273
FT rate
30.5%
#297
FT allowed
36.3%
#219
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−2.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Long Beach St
−3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#318 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#315
Def reb %
72.2%
#60
Turnover %
18.0%
#270
Forced TO %
17.5%
#120
FT rate
30.7%
#287
FT allowed
42.3%
#327
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed−1.8

Pacific has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.4 (#252 of 365) to Long Beach St’s −3.6 (#318).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Pacific2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10TJ WainwrightGSr6'3"33-3331.913.03.81.41.552.0%38.8%5.592.0%24.9%
6Jaden ClaytonGSr6'1"33-2430.47.93.36.42.544.0%30.2%3.575.0%21.7%
1Justin RochelinGSr6'5"33-3327.29.16.41.01.852.3%38.1%2.579.8%22.0%
14Isaac JackFSr6'11"33-3321.69.15.30.50.867.4%—0.059.7%21.5%
9Kajus KublickasGJr6'2"33-920.25.62.53.01.942.1%27.8%2.471.4%23.7%
15Jaion PittFFr6'7"33-017.34.73.70.50.368.8%66.7%0.263.4%13.0%
24KC IbekweCSr6'11"32-09.33.81.60.30.859.6%—0.029.6%26.9%
0Alexis MarmolejosGSr6'2"24-09.53.81.60.30.545.1%30.2%2.284.2%26.8%
11Emmanuel ManyuonGJr6'2"13-03.20.50.40.20.258.3%33.3%0.2—11.6%
17Eyal HarelGFr6'7"3-03.32.00.30.00.0150.0%100.0%0.7—11.4%
3Carlsheon YoungGFr6'4"1-03.00.00.00.02.0——0.0—40.8%
13Kellen HamptonFFr6'7"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
7Augustas BrazdeikisFJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Clayton MpianaFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Dominic CapriottiGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Kris KeinysFJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Noah BuduGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PacificLong Beach St
Efficiency
108.8
105.0
106.4
110.3
66.4
69.1
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
50.6%
51.3%
51.5%
35.8%
32.7%
75.5%
72.5%
30.5%
30.7%
Ball control & glass
20.1%
18.0%
15.1%
17.5%
35.3%
26.2%
25.0%
27.8%
9.9%
9.5%
10.6%
7.2%
Style
35.3%
34.8%
45.9%
44.4%
9.7%
11.7%
58.0%
46.2%
27.8%
35.9%
Roster
3.55
2.37
6'4.7"
6'5.6"
82.8%
89.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Pacific
Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 78.1%
Lost
  • Elias Ralph 34.6 mpg, 16.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kris Keinys no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Budu no D1 minutes last season
  • Dominic Capriotti no D1 minutes last season
  • Augustas Brazdeikis no D1 minutes last season
  • Clayton Mpiana no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Long Beach St
Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 93.5%
Lost
  • Cole Farrell 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
  • Jayden Alexander no D1 minutes last season
  • Grant Gondrezick II no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Nov 122025-26Long Beach St 66 – 69 Pacific

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.