CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRedhawk Center, Seattle, WA
UTSA
Efficiency #350
2025-26: 5-25 · 1-17 conf
@
Seattle U
Efficiency #125
2025-26: 21-14 · 9-11 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
63.5
win 10%
Projected
78.7
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: SEA −15.1 · total 142.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Seattle U 68.7, UTSA 69.1 → 69.5 possessions
+2.5
Seattle U offense vs UTSA defense
+1.3
UTSA offense vs Seattle U defense
−9.9
Projected total
142.2
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Seattle U offense vs UTSA defense
+1.3
UTSA offense vs Seattle U defense
+9.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Seattle U by 15.1
15.1
UTSA side ◂▸ Seattle U side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.1 against a projected 142.2, and the margin steps add to +15.2 against +15.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Seattle U.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UTSA is the faster team (69.6, #111 of 365) and Seattle U the slower (68.8, #160). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.2
model
Projected team totals
63.5 / 78.7
UTSA / Seattle U
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#112
UTSA
68.7#150
Seattle U

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUTSA
Where UTSA struggles: shooting
UTSA shoots an effective 44.8% (#360); Seattle U allows 48.4% (#46). Expect about 46.1%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -7.4 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSeattle U
Seattle U's shot-blocking
Seattle U ranks #14 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.1% of UTSA's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
TurnoversUTSA
UTSA turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.9% is worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions against UTSA's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UTSA) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UTSA at about 39.8% of its shots from three, Seattle U about 41.8%.
AdvantageSeattle U
Where Seattle U scores: ball control
Seattle U turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#183); UTSA forces turnovers on 14.7% of opponent possessions (#311). Expect about 15.4%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
UTSA has the ball
OffenseSeattle U allowsvs D1 avg
44.8% #360
48.4% #46
-7.4 pt/100
17.5% #235
21.1% #9
-3.9 pt/100
30.2% #191
31.8% #249
+0.3 pt/100
29.5% #320
33.0% #131
-0.5 pt/100
69.8% #275
—
-0.2 pt/100
UTSA net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.7 pts/100
Seattle U has the ball
OffenseUTSA allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #249
53.3% #277
+0.2 pt/100
16.8% #183
14.7% #311
+1.6 pt/100
23.7% #347
38.7% #363
-0.4 pt/100
34.2% #201
33.3% #135
-0.2 pt/100
70.6% #252
—
-0.2 pt/100
Seattle U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UTSAoffense vsSeattle Udefense
Share of shots by zone
UTSA shoots
Seattle U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.6%#35653.2%#2658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.0%#31639.6%#18039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21740.7%#26738.0%
Three29.2%#35132.1%#6933.7%
Seattle Uoffense vsUTSAdefense
Share of shots by zone
Seattle U shoots
UTSA allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26260.5%#24958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.8%#15138.5%#14539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.0%#26338.5%#18438.0%
Three33.7%#18635.1%#25133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UTSA
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#351 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#191
Def reb %
61.3%
#363
Turnover %
17.5%
#235
Forced TO %
14.7%
#311
FT rate
29.5%
#320
FT allowed
33.3%
#135
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−2.6
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.5
Seattle U
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#145 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#347
Def reb %
68.2%
#249
Turnover %
16.8%
#183
Forced TO %
21.1%
#9
FT rate
34.2%
#201
FT allowed
33.0%
#131
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6

Seattle U has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#145 of 365) to UTSA’s −5.4 (#351).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UTSA2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UTSA's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
7Jamir SimpsonGSr6'5"30-2934.616.24.12.41.845.8%30.1%5.975.0%29.7%
0Dorian HayesGFr6'5"26-2330.28.81.81.81.346.7%33.3%6.370.7%19.4%
4Brent MossGJr6'6"29-1526.89.64.70.91.044.8%32.7%5.374.4%23.8%
24Baboucarr NjieFSo6'6"29-1025.59.45.21.52.446.6%6.5%1.163.5%26.6%
2Austin NunezGSr6'2"22-2128.59.82.12.82.035.2%25.3%4.088.5%27.5%
23Matheo CoffiFFr6'8"30-2119.03.84.80.80.957.4%36.8%1.350.0%12.7%
1Kaidon RayfieldFFr6'8"26-1320.06.74.80.80.942.1%22.7%1.756.9%23.6%
12Daniel AkitobyFSr6'9"24-813.95.74.10.30.759.8%40.0%0.464.5%21.7%
8LJ BrownGSr6'2"17-212.52.41.50.60.542.2%27.8%2.175.0%15.0%
6Macaleab RichGJr6'7"11-215.18.12.40.61.557.1%18.2%1.070.8%30.1%
10Mo NjieCSr6'11"20-67.81.61.90.10.559.5%100.0%0.144.4%14.3%
5Pierce SpencerGSr6'3"4-012.53.51.01.80.535.7%0.0%0.566.7%21.0%
17Stanley BordenCSr7'0"3-06.70.02.00.00.70.0%0.0%0.3—10.5%
25Jackson FazandeFSo6'3"3-01.30.00.00.00.3——0.0—13.1%
3Vasean AllettePGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UTSASeattle U
Efficiency
101.5
103.7
115.1
101.3
69.1
68.7
—
—
Shooting
44.8%
49.8%
45.5%
49.3%
29.2%
33.7%
69.8%
70.6%
29.5%
34.2%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
16.8%
14.7%
21.1%
30.2%
23.7%
38.7%
31.8%
11.8%
9.6%
13.1%
9.4%
Style
41.3%
39.4%
42.6%
43.9%
15.6%
9.9%
42.8%
53.8%
31.5%
30.5%
Roster
2.66
3.25
6'5.8"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UTSA
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UTSA's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Seattle U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Mon, Dec 222025-26Seattle U 71 – 68 UTSA

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.