Kent State Golden Flashes vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET · Trask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC
Non-conferenceTrask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC
Kent State
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #174
@
UNC Wilmington
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #114
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET
73.581.0
Projected score
KENT win 26%UNCW win 74%
Consensus
Spread
UNCW −5.5
open UNCW −6.5
Total
154.5
open 154.5
Our line
UNCW −7.5
ML Kent State
+200
ML UNC Wilmington
-245
Median of 7 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
UNC Wilmingtonrated 6.1 above average
+6.1
Kent Staterated 2.8 above average
−2.8
Home court
+4.2
Our line
UNCW −7.5
◂ Kent State sideUNC Wilmington side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward UNC Wilmington. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UNC Wilmington is the faster team (79.0, #21 of 365) and Kent State the slower (67.8, #270). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
154.5
Consensus · open 154.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.7#108
Kent State
71.5#122
UNC Wilmington
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
UNCW −7.5
Four factors +9.3 · not in these stats −1.8
From the four factors
UNC Wilmington has the ball+7.0
Kent State has the ball−2.3
UNC Wilmington has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.9% #168 · KENT allows 59.3% #318+5.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · KENT allows 31.3% #180+1.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 60.3% #12 · KENT allows 55.6% #328 · FT 54.3% #343+1.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 24.0% #326 · KENT forces 13.3% #309 · ~13 turnovers−0.1
Kent State has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 41.2% #317 · UNCW allows 44.4% #69−8.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 10.3% #8 · UNCW forces 13.9% #292 · ~8 turnovers+6.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.7% #257 · UNCW allows 38.7% #200 · FT 63.6% #274−0.6
✓Wins second chancesOR% 43.4% #25 · UNCW allows 16.7% #4+0.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootKent Stateoffense vsUNC Wilmingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Kent State shoots
46.0
4.8
11.1
38.1
UNC Wilmington allows
30.6
4.8
4.8
59.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 48.3%#287 | 63.2%#244 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.6%#224 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.0%#299 | 24.3%#41 | 32.5% |
UNC Wilmingtonoffense vsKent Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
UNC Wilmington shoots
43.1
6.9
8.6
41.4
Kent State allows
40.4
8.5
6.4
44.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#146 | 68.4%#290 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 37.5%#87 | 36.4%#268 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineKent State
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#178 of 365
Off reb %
43.4%
#25
Def reb %
68.8%
#180
Turnover %
10.3%
#8
Forced TO %
13.3%
#309
FT rate
29.7%
#257
FT allowed
55.6%
#328
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+5.6
Forcing turnovers−3.4
Foul shots drawn−2.0
Foul shots allowed−4.6
UNC Wilmington
+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#109 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
83.3%
#4
Turnover %
24.0%
#326
Forced TO %
13.9%
#292
FT rate
60.3%
#12
FT allowed
38.7%
#200
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+5.0
Ball security−4.1
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn+6.0
Foul shots allowed−0.2
UNC Wilmington has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#109 of 365) to Kent State’s −0.3 (#178).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Kent State2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 23.5 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 87.5% | 29.1% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-2 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 2.5 | 40.0% | 26.6% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-1 | 23.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 66.7% | 20.4% | Active | |
| 23 | F | So | 6'9" | 2-2 | 20.5 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 79.4% | 100.0% | 1.5 | 100.0% | 26.3% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-1 | 19.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 75.0% | 18.5% | Active | |
| 6 | G | So | 6'1" | 2-2 | 19.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 57.7% | 50.0% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 21.3% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-1 | 36.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 23.7% | 12.5% | 8.0 | 66.7% | 37.8% | Missed last | |
| 34 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-1 | 17.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 18.7% | Active | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 16.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 17.6% | Active | |
| 13 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 34.7% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 2-0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.0% | Active | |
| 22 | F | So | 6'6" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 28.5% | Active | |
| 31 | G | So | 6'0" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 33.8% | Active | |
| 42 | F | Fr | 7'0" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 16.2% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesKent State
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −15.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +15.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Roberts Wesleyan Redhawks | H | W 102–50 | — | — | — | — | 126.9 | 62.2 | 80.4 |
| Nov 2 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 75–85 | −5.0 | L−15.0 | 145.0 | O160 | 110.5 | 125.3 | 67.8 |
| Mar 18 | Illinois St | A | L 58–79 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 154.5 | U137 | 83.9 | 114.3 | 69.1 |
| Mar 13 | Akron | N | L 68–75 | +6.5 | L−0.5 | 163.0 | U143 | 99.5 | 109.7 | 68.3 |
| Mar 12 | Ohio | N | W 86–75 | −3.5 | W+7.5 | 160.5 | O161 | 121.1 | 105.7 | 71.0 |
| Mar 6 | W Michigan | H | W 86–78 | −13.5 | L−5.5 | 157.5 | O164 | 122.5 | 111.1 | 70.2 |
| Mar 3 | N Illinois | A | W 102–76 | −10.0 | W+16.0 | 149.5 | O178 | 134.5 | 100.2 | 75.9 |
| Feb 27 | Akron | H | L 70–92 | +3.5 | L−18.5 | 165.0 | U162 | 99.4 | 130.7 | 70.4 |
| Feb 24 | C Michigan | H | W 83–81 | −12.0 | L−10.0 | 157.0 | O164 | 124.1 | 121.1 | 66.9 |
| Feb 17 | Bowling Green | A | W 78–71 | +2.5 | W+9.5 | 151.5 | U149 | 107.5 | 97.9 | 72.5 |
UNC Wilmington
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +2.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | East Carolina | A | W 78–75 | −5.5 | L−2.5 | 150.5 | O153 | 98.7 | 94.9 | 79.0 |
| Nov 2 | Mount Olive Trojans | H | W 101–65 | — | — | — | — | 130.3 | 83.9 | 77.5 |
| Mar 21 | Dayton | H | L 61–80 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 95.9 | 125.8 | 63.6 |
| Mar 17 | Yale | A | W 68–67 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U135 | 104.5 | 103.0 | 65.1 |
| Mar 8 | Campbell | N | L 70–85 | −7.5 | L−22.5 | 149.0 | O155 | 97.8 | 118.7 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Elon | A | W 76–57 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 113.6 | 85.2 | 66.9 |
| Mar 1 | Charleston | H | L 76–79 | −5.0 | L−8.0 | 147.0 | O155 | 117.9 | 122.6 | 64.5 |
| Feb 26 | NC A&T | H | W 88–65 | −13.5 | W+9.5 | 147.5 | O153 | 136.2 | 100.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 21 | Campbell | A | W 73–68 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 150.5 | U141 | 106.8 | 99.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 19 | Monmouth | H | W 79–69 | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 109.7 | 95.8 | 72.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeKent StateUNC Wilmington
Efficiency
108.2
107.1
109.3
102.3
71.7
71.5
-4.1
-4.8
Shooting
41.2%
50.9%
43.5%
47.1%
25.0%
37.5%
63.6%
54.3%
29.7%
60.3%
Ball control & glass
10.3%
24.0%
13.3%
13.9%
43.4%
35.1%
31.3%
16.7%
5.9%
11.4%
2.2%
11.8%
Style
37.8%
41.4%
45.3%
41.0%
16.0%
19.2%
33.3%
68.0%
44.9%
40.7%
Roster
2.98
3.37
6'4.4"
6'5.6"
11.7%
23.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputKent State
Returning minutes: 15.4%Returning production: 15.0%
Lost
- Cian Medley 32.4 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to East Carolina
- Delrecco Gillespie 32.2 mpg, 17.7 ppg · transferred to Houston
- Morgan Safford 29.4 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jahari Williamson 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Pepperdine
- Rob Whaley Jr. 22.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Rayvon Griffith 13.4 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Cleveland St
Added
- Christian Henry from Fordham · 26.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Cameron Williams from Portland · 21.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Godslove Nwabude from E Michigan · 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
- Chansey Willis Jr. from Minnesota · 5.6 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Latif Diouf from Chattanooga · 2.3 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Jakhi Calloway no D1 minutes last season
Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
UNC Wilmington
Returning minutes: 23.7%Returning production: 29.5%
Lost
- Nolan Hodge 32.3 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Greedy Williams 30.6 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Ross 29.2 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian May 28.8 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Madison Durr 21.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Monmouth
- Makoi Mabor Makoi 8.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to Mercer
Added
- William Kermoury from Northeastern · 23.5 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Tahlan Pettway from W Carolina · 21.3 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
- Spencer Elliott from Charlotte · 17.2 mpg, 4.1 ppg last season
- Xavier Brown from South Florida · 1.1 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Matija Prodanovic no D1 minutes last season
- Tamarion Siddle no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -7.5→-5.5-110 | 154.5o-110 u-110 | -245 | +200 |
| BetMGM | -5.5-110 | 154.5o-110 u-110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -5.5-110 | 154.5o-110 u-110 | -250 | +205 |
| Fanatics | -7→-6-105 | 154.5o-110 u-110 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline | -7→-5.5-110 | 154.5→154o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -5.5-110 | 154.5o-110 u-110 | -245 | +205 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5→-5.5-110 | 154.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -5.5-117 | 154.5→152.5o-223 u-257 | -233 | +212 |
| Polymarket | -5.5-133 | 154.5→— | -257 | +203 |
| Novig | -5.5-122 | 153.5→— | -245 | +186 |
DraftKings
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 10 | 2025-26 | UNC Wilmington 77 – 86 Kent State |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.