CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCarnesecca Arena, Queens, NY
Colgate
Efficiency #223
2025-26: 18-15 · 12-8 conf
@
St John's
Efficiency #16
2025-26: 30-7 · 21-2 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
66.9
win 7%
Projected
83.8
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: SJU −16.8 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: St John's 69.7, Colgate 68.0 → 69.4 possessions
+2.3
St John's offense vs Colgate defense
+6.5
Colgate offense vs St John's defense
−6.3
Projected total
150.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
St John's offense vs Colgate defense
+6.5
Colgate offense vs St John's defense
+6.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
St John's by 16.8
16.8
Colgate side ◂▸ St John's side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St John's.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St John's is the faster team (70.6, #74 of 365) and Colgate the slower (66.9, #246). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.7
model
Projected team totals
66.9 / 83.8
Colgate / St John's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#213
Colgate
69.7#70
St John's
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSt John's
Where St John's scores: ball control
St John's turns it over on 14.4% of possessions (#39); Colgate forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#266). Expect about 14.5%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashColgate
Style match: 3-point volume
Colgate rarely shoots threes (35.0% of its shots); St John's runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.8% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (St John's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colgate at about 31.8% of its shots from three, St John's about 37.5%.
AdvantageColgate
Where Colgate struggles: the offensive glass
Colgate rebounds 26.6% of its own misses (#309); St John's lets opponents grab 29.9% of their own misses (#154). Expect about 27.5%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSt John's
St John's owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for St John's's offense.
ClashColgate
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Colgate (#6 in shot-blocking exposure) against St John's (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically St John's's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
Colgate has the ball
OffenseSt John's allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #91
47.5% #32
-1.1 pt/100
14.6% #47
19.1% #44
-0.3 pt/100
26.6% #309
29.9% #154
-1.8 pt/100
29.7% #316
31.8% #100
-0.6 pt/100
74.7% #97
—
+0.2 pt/100
Colgate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
St John's has the ball
OffenseColgate allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #192
52.2% #224
+0.5 pt/100
14.4% #39
15.3% #266
+2.8 pt/100
35.2% #43
29.3% #125
+1.7 pt/100
40.2% #57
33.8% #145
+0.2 pt/100
72.2% #200
—
-0.0 pt/100
St John's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersColgateoffense vsSt John'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Colgate shoots
37.9
6.0
21.2
34.9
St John's allows
42.4
7.1
18.2
32.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#155 | 53.8%#38 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.3%#98 | 33.6%#36 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.8%#18 | 39.0%#201 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#81 | 31.3%#39 | 33.7% |
St John'soffense vsColgatedefense
Share of shots by zone
St John's shoots
42.7
6.5
15.7
35.1
Colgate allows
38.5
6.2
13.8
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.5%#177 | 59.1%#193 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.1%#302 | 39.3%#163 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.2%#215 | 38.5%#178 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.5%#196 | 34.8%#238 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersColgate
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#247 of 365
Off reb %
26.6%
#309
Def reb %
70.7%
#125
Turnover %
14.6%
#47
Forced TO %
15.3%
#266
FT rate
29.7%
#316
FT allowed
33.8%
#145
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.4
St John's
+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#6 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#43
Def reb %
70.1%
#154
Turnover %
14.4%
#39
Forced TO %
19.1%
#44
FT rate
40.2%
#57
FT allowed
31.8%
#100
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.9
St John's has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#6 of 365) to Colgate’s −1.3 (#247).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
St John's2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Joson Sanon | G | So | 6'5" | 37-14 | 20.9 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 42.9% | 33.6% | 3.9 | 76.8% | 25.0% | |
| 0 | Dylan Darling | G | Jr | 6'1" | 35-15 | 21.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 47.1% | 27.7% | 2.9 | 71.8% | 20.4% | |
| 11 | Ian Jackson | G | So | 6'5" | 36-19 | 18.3 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49.6% | 34.3% | 4.0 | 90.0% | 31.3% | |
| 17 | Ruben Prey | F | So | 6'11" | 37-1 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 57.9% | 62.5% | 0.6 | 67.2% | 21.5% | |
| 31 | Lefteris Liotopoulos | G | So | 6'4" | 30-0 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 45.9% | 32.1% | 1.8 | 77.8% | 23.8% | |
| 5 | Kelvin Odih | G | Fr | 6'4" | 10-0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 46.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 20.6% | |
| 6 | Casper Pohto | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 13.2% | |
| 44 | Handje Tamba | C | Sr | 6'11" | 8-0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 7 | Fotis Konstantinidis | G | Fr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.2 | — | 6.7% | |
| 22 | Imran Suljanovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Colgate
Against the spread
Season
12-19
Home
4-9
Road
7-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −4.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
9-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +5.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Lehigh | A | L 69–76 | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 146.0 | U145 | 100.7 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Mar 5 | Loyola MD | H | W 90–77 | −5.5 | W+7.5 | 154.0 | O167 | 139.5 | 119.4 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Navy | A | L 69–85 | +6.5 | L−9.5 | 142.0 | O154 | 103.7 | 127.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 25 | Lafayette | H | L 69–70 | −8.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U139 | 110.6 | 112.2 | 62.4 |
| Feb 21 | Loyola MD | H | W 101–98 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 149.5 | O199 | 115.7 | 112.3 | 87.3 |
| Feb 16 | Boston U | A | L 58–85 | −2.0 | L−29.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 101.3 | 148.4 | 57.3 |
| Feb 14 | Navy | H | L 80–84 OT | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | O164 | 111.8 | 117.4 | 71.6 |
| Feb 11 | Holy Cross | A | W 74–70 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 143.0 | O144 | 108.1 | 102.3 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | Bucknell | A | W 78–59 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 141.5 | U137 | 106.3 | 80.4 | 73.4 |
| Feb 4 | Army | H | W 69–55 | −10.0 | W+4.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 107.3 | 85.6 | 64.3 |
St John's
Against the spread
Season
22-15
Home
11-9
Road
7-3
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.8
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-22-1
Home
7-13
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
2-7-1
avg vs total −5.2
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #1Duke | N | L 75–80 | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 140.5 | O155 | 117.0 | 124.8 | 64.1 |
| Mar 22 | #4Kansas | N | W 67–65 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 145.5 | U132 | 95.5 | 92.7 | 70.2 |
| Mar 20 | #12Northern Iowa | N | W 79–53 | −10.5 | W+15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 125.2 | 84.0 | 63.1 |
| Mar 14 | #6UConn | H | W 72–52 | +2.0 | W+22.0 | 139.5 | U124 | 114.5 | 82.7 | 62.9 |
| Mar 13 | Seton Hall | H | W 78–68 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O146 | 117.3 | 102.3 | 66.5 |
| Mar 12 | Providence | H | W 85–72 | −12.0 | W+1.0 | 159.5 | U157 | 112.6 | 95.4 | 75.5 |
| Mar 6 | Seton Hall | A | W 72–65 | −5.0 | W+2.0 | 137.0 | P137 | 112.3 | 101.3 | 64.1 |
| Mar 3 | Georgetown | H | W 72–69 | −15.5 | L−12.5 | 148.0 | U141 | 103.5 | 99.2 | 69.6 |
| Feb 28 | Villanova | H | W 89–57 | −7.5 | W+24.5 | 148.0 | U146 | 122.8 | 78.6 | 72.5 |
| Feb 25 | #6UConn | A | L 40–72 | +5.5 | L−26.5 | 146.0 | U112 | 68.8 | 123.8 | 58.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeColgateSt John's
Efficiency
108.6
115.2
111.2
99.2
68.0
69.7
—
—
Shooting
53.3%
51.1%
53.2%
51.5%
35.6%
33.5%
74.7%
72.2%
29.7%
40.2%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
14.4%
15.3%
19.1%
26.6%
35.2%
29.3%
29.9%
8.4%
8.6%
6.3%
10.0%
Style
35.0%
35.2%
44.4%
45.0%
12.6%
16.7%
51.4%
57.9%
29.0%
31.0%
Roster
2.54
2.24
6'5.6"
6'4.7"
85.6%
39.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputColgate
Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 88.2%
Lost
- Ben Tweedy 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Added
- Parker Jones no D1 minutes last season
- Stevie Clark no D1 minutes last season
- Blake Forrest no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
St John's
Returning minutes: 39.3%Returning production: 32.0%
Lost
- Zuby Ejiofor 30.1 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bryce Hopkins 28.8 mpg, 13.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Oziyah Sellers 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dillon Mitchell 28.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sadiku Ibine Ayo 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Iona
Added
- Imran Suljanovic no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.