Pepperdine Waves vs Sam Houston Bearkats basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET · Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum, Huntsville, TX
Non-conferenceESPN+Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum, Huntsville, TX
Pepperdine
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #270
@
Sam Houston
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #123
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET
79.280.3
Projected score
PEPP win 46%SHSU win 54%
Consensus
Spread
SHSU −1.5
open SHSU −1.25
Total
159.5
open 159.5
Our line
SHSU −1.1
ML Pepperdine
-105
ML Sam Houston
-115
Median of 9 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Sam Houstonrated 0.6 below average
−0.6
Pepperdinerated 2.5 above average
−2.5
Home court
+4.2
Our line
SHSU −1.1
◂ Pepperdine sideSam Houston side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Sam Houston. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 74.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Sam Houston is the faster team (80.8, #13 of 365) and Pepperdine the slower (75.5, #57). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
74.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
159.5
Consensus · open 159.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.7#107
Pepperdine
73.4#48
Sam Houston
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
SHSU −1.1
Four factors −11.2 · not in these stats +12.3
From the four factors
Sam Houston has the ball−2.5
Pepperdine has the ball+8.7
Sam Houston has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 28.5% #350 · PEPP forces 21.2% #81 · ~19 turnovers−7.1
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · PEPP allows 62.5% #340+6.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 24.6% #312 · PEPP allows 15.6% #7 · FT 56.3% #334−2.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 34.1% #123 · PEPP allows 31.3% #180+0.8
Pepperdine has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.2% #155 · SHSU forces 12.4% #325 · ~10 turnovers+3.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 42.1% #30 · SHSU allows 30.2% #164+3.1
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · SHSU allows 54.7% #253+2.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.4% #111 · SHSU allows 25.3% #51 · FT 67.9% #218−0.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootPepperdineoffense vsSam Houstondefense
Share of shots by zone
Pepperdine shoots
45.5
6.1
3.0
45.5
Sam Houston allows
33.3
10.4
14.6
41.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 75.0%#340 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 100.0%#1 | 20.0%#54 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 100.0%#1 | 42.9%#240 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.7%#261 | 32.3%#173 | 32.5% |
Sam Houstonoffense vsPepperdinedefense
Share of shots by zone
Sam Houston shoots
31.6
7.9
10.5
50.0
Pepperdine allows
42.2
7.8
4.7
45.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 25.0%#357 | 55.6%#137 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 60.0%#305 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 45.5%#16 | 48.3%#349 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul linePepperdine
+13.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365
Off reb %
42.1%
#30
Def reb %
68.8%
#180
Turnover %
17.2%
#155
Forced TO %
21.2%
#81
FT rate
42.4%
#111
FT allowed
15.6%
#7
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.5
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+5.8
Sam Houston
−10.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#313 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#123
Def reb %
69.8%
#164
Turnover %
28.5%
#350
Forced TO %
12.4%
#325
FT rate
24.6%
#312
FT allowed
25.3%
#51
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−7.3
Forcing turnovers−4.0
Foul shots drawn−3.3
Foul shots allowed+3.3
Pepperdine has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.7 (#24 of 365) to Sam Houston’s −10.0 (#313).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Pepperdine2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-1 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 63.0% | 42.1% | 6.3 | 100.0% | 22.5% | Active | |
| 3 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 23.7 | 18.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 75.9% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 76.9% | 27.9% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 22.3 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 42.6% | 29.2% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 31.0% | Active | |
| 14 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 22.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 70.0% | 46.7% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 12.5% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 20.7 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 48.4% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 87.5% | 38.9% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 19.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 53.8% | 25.0% | 2.7 | 62.5% | 21.7% | Active | |
| 21 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 18.7 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 62.1% | 30.3% | Active | |
| 25 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 44.4% | 28.6% | 2.3 | — | 14.2% | Active | |
| 9 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 77.8% | — | 0.0 | 45.5% | 17.9% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 85.7% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 80.0% | 23.2% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 70.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 100.0% | 20.3% | Active | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 27.2% | Active | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 30.1% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesPepperdine
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −4.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +6.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Bethesda Flames | H | W 116–43 | — | — | — | — | 148.3 | 55.0 | 78.2 |
| Nov 5 | La Sierra Golden Eagles | H | W 106–66 | — | — | — | — | 136.2 | 84.8 | 77.8 |
| Nov 2 | Cornell | A | L 85–86 | −3.5 | L−4.5 | 165.0 | O171 | 112.5 | 113.9 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | Portland | N | L 68–77 | +3.5 | L−5.5 | 154.0 | U145 | 98.2 | 111.2 | 69.3 |
| Feb 28 | Washington St | H | W 88–79 | +8.0 | W+17.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 116.6 | 104.6 | 75.5 |
| Feb 25 | Seattle U | H | L 80–87 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 145.5 | O167 | 114.1 | 124.1 | 70.1 |
| Feb 21 | Oregon St | A | L 73–83 | +9.0 | L−1.0 | 148.5 | O156 | 101.4 | 115.3 | 72.0 |
| Feb 18 | Portland | A | W 95–87 | +7.0 | W+15.0 | 151.0 | O182 | 136.2 | 124.8 | 69.7 |
| Feb 14 | LMU | H | W 90–89 | +6.0 | W+7.0 | 148.5 | O179 | 126.4 | 125.0 | 71.2 |
| Feb 11 | Saint Mary's | A | L 60–88 | +24.5 | L−3.5 | 144.0 | O148 | 83.8 | 122.9 | 71.6 |
Sam Houston
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +5.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −2.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Howard Payne Yellow Jackets | H | W 102–59 | — | — | — | — | 122.3 | 70.7 | 83.4 |
| Nov 3 | #20Alabama | A | L 74–96 | +27.0 | W+5.0 | 172.5 | U170 | 91.6 | 118.8 | 80.8 |
| Mar 18 | New Mexico | A | L 83–107 | +11.5 | L−12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 109.2 | 140.7 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | Kennesaw St | N | L 73–79 | −2.0 | L−8.0 | 159.5 | U152 | 104.8 | 113.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 11 | New Mexico St | N | W 69–61 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 85.3 | 71.5 |
| Mar 7 | Liberty | A | L 72–79 | +4.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U151 | 115.8 | 127.1 | 62.2 |
| Mar 5 | Delaware | A | L 80–83 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 112.4 | 116.7 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Missouri St | H | W 86–81 | −7.0 | L−2.0 | 154.5 | O167 | 127.1 | 119.8 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | FIU | H | W 100–67 | −6.0 | W+27.0 | 162.0 | O167 | 136.4 | 91.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Jax State | H | W 82–78 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 121.6 | 115.7 | 67.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homePepperdineSam Houston
Efficiency
102.6
108.0
109.0
105.0
71.7
73.4
-1.4
19.9
Shooting
50.0%
50.0%
58.3%
31.3%
26.7%
45.5%
67.9%
56.3%
42.4%
24.6%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
28.5%
21.2%
12.4%
42.1%
34.1%
31.3%
30.2%
10.6%
21.0%
11.1%
31.3%
Style
45.5%
50.8%
42.4%
24.3%
11.8%
14.9%
41.4%
68.0%
47.2%
46.3%
Roster
2.86
2.49
6'5.4"
6'4.7"
5.1%
23.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPepperdine
Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 4.3%
Lost
- Styles Phipps 34.0 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Nevada
- Aaron Clark 32.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Little Rock
- Javon Cooley 30.1 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Danilo Dozic 26.4 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Yonatan Levy 20.5 mpg, 5.2 ppg · transferred to Chattanooga
- Pavle Stosic 15.7 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to FDU
Added
- Petar Majstorovic from Long Beach St · 31.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Jahari Williamson from Kent State · 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
- Youri Fritz from Northeastern · 20.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
- Evan Haywood from Butler · 17.6 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
- Ethan Meuser from Stonehill · 12.4 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
- Anthony Robinson from Xavier · 7.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Sam Houston
Returning minutes: 23.6%Returning production: 20.2%
Lost
- Damon Nicholas Jr. 27.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kashie Natt 26.4 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma St
- Jacob Walker 25.8 mpg, 11.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma St
- Po'Boigh King 25.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Veljko Ilic 24.3 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Manning 9.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
Added
- Enel St. Bernard from Indiana St · 17.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Riccardo Greppi from Wisconsin · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Keller Partain no D1 minutes last season
- Rylan Kelly no D1 minutes last season
- Alec Loustau no D1 minutes last season
- Xavier Roberson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1.5-110 | 159.5o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | -1.5-102 | 159.5o-110 u-110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -1.5-115 | 159.5o-107 u-117 | -136 | +107 |
| Caesars | -1.5-110 | 159.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -1-110 | 159.5o-110 u-110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetOnline | 0-115 | 159o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1.5-110 | 159.5o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5-110 | 159.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -1.5-115 | 159.5o-105 u-115 | -135 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -1.5+100 | 157.5→159.5o-108 u-108 | -108 | +104 |
| Polymarket | -1.5-138 | 159.5o-144 | -117 | +100 |
| Novig | -1.5-104 | 159.5o-108 u-117 | -111 | +100 |
DraftKings
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 11
- FDU at East Texas A&M · 11:30 AM ET
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- Incarnate Word at UC Davis · 2:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
- Saint Joseph's vs South Florida · 3:00 PM ET
- NC A&T at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- Bethune at San Diego St · 5:00 PM ET
- Penn at Navy · 5:30 PM ET
- NC Central at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at IU Indy · 6:30 PM ET
- Charleston at Temple · 6:30 PM ET
- Marquette at Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
- UMass Lowell at UMass · 7:00 PM ET
- Cornell at St Bonaventure · 7:00 PM ET
- American at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at West Georgia · 7:00 PM ET
- William & Mary at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at VCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Colgate at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at ETSU · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Delaware · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Saint Peter's at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Stony Brook at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- SC State at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Norfolk St · 7:00 PM ET
- Kent State at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Indiana St · 7:00 PM ET
- Santa Clara at North Texas · 8:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
- Jax State at Houston · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
- Robert Morris at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Valparaiso at S Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Grand Canyon · 9:00 PM ET
- Nevada at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- SF Austin at Abilene Chrstn · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Nebraska · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at UCLA · 9:00 PM ET
- UTSA at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- Pacific at Long Beach St · 10:00 PM ET
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- USC at California · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.