CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Field House, Commerce, TX
FDU
Efficiency #332
2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf
@
East Texas A&M
Efficiency #311
2025-26: 11-21 · 6-16 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
68.3
win 32%
Projected
73.7
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: ETAM −5.3 · total 142.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: East Texas A&M 69.0, FDU 66.2 → 66.9 possessions
−3.2
East Texas A&M offense vs FDU defense
−0.8
FDU offense vs East Texas A&M defense
−2.3
Projected total
142.0
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
East Texas A&M offense vs FDU defense
−0.8
FDU offense vs East Texas A&M defense
+2.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
East Texas A&M by 5.3
5.3
FDU side ◂▸ East Texas A&M side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.9 against a projected 142.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help East Texas A&M.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, East Texas A&M is the faster team (68.5, #171 of 365) and FDU the slower (64.1, #352). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.0
model
Projected team totals
68.3 / 73.7
FDU / East Texas A&M
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.2#337
FDU
69.0#123
East Texas A&M

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
East Texas A&M averages 68.5 possessions per 40, FDU 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageEast Texas A&M
Where East Texas A&M struggles: the offensive glass
East Texas A&M rebounds 25.7% of its own misses (#328); FDU lets opponents grab 27.3% of their own misses (#46). Expect about 25.7%, 4.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageFDU
Where FDU struggles: shooting
FDU shoots an effective 47.1% (#333); East Texas A&M allows 52.9% (#261). Expect about 49.7%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (FDU, East Texas A&M's defense, FDU's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect FDU at about 43.1% of its shots from three, East Texas A&M about 45.6%.
FDU has the ball
OffenseEast Texas A&M allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #333
52.9% #261
-2.2 pt/100
18.1% #280
17.0% #153
-1.1 pt/100
32.0% #125
32.8% #288
+1.4 pt/100
32.8% #240
34.5% #165
-0.2 pt/100
70.1% #272
—
-0.2 pt/100
FDU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.4 pts/100
East Texas A&M has the ball
OffenseFDU allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #282
55.2% #336
+1.1 pt/100
19.2% #330
16.1% #216
-1.2 pt/100
25.7% #328
27.3% #46
-2.9 pt/100
32.0% #257
36.3% #217
-0.1 pt/100
67.9% #328
—
-0.4 pt/100
East Texas A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
FDUoffense vsEast Texas A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
FDU shoots
East Texas A&M allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23655.1%#6258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.3%#23940.4%#19739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33735.4%#8538.0%
Three30.3%#33937.3%#34733.7%
East Texas A&Moffense vsFDUdefense
Share of shots by zone
East Texas A&M shoots
FDU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.9%#20060.0%#22458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.3%#19038.5%#14839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.8%#33243.3%#33138.0%
Three31.3%#31337.8%#35433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
FDU
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#205 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#125
Def reb %
72.7%
#46
Turnover %
18.1%
#280
Forced TO %
16.1%
#216
FT rate
32.8%
#240
FT allowed
36.3%
#217
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3
East Texas A&M
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#332 of 365
Off reb %
25.7%
#328
Def reb %
67.2%
#288
Turnover %
19.2%
#330
Forced TO %
17.0%
#153
FT rate
32.0%
#257
FT allowed
34.5%
#165
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.2

FDU has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#205 of 365) to East Texas A&M’s −4.2 (#332).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FDU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Joey NiesmanGSr6'2"32-2833.912.33.83.21.950.3%34.3%5.474.1%24.8%
2Taeshaud JacksonFSr6'6"32-3229.610.38.41.61.848.6%21.6%1.676.2%23.9%
7Eric ParnellGSr6'3"32-3125.710.72.20.70.549.8%33.1%7.681.8%26.2%
22Cyril MartynovCSr7'0"32-3225.68.15.42.31.953.9%14.3%0.253.6%22.8%
35David JevticGFr6'8"31-1020.36.63.41.21.348.0%32.6%3.066.0%24.0%
55Arthur CoxFSr6'8"29-120.18.83.71.31.648.9%29.2%2.278.0%29.3%
3Raysean JohnsonGSo6'1"31-1717.44.61.80.70.943.4%27.6%1.967.9%20.1%
8Noah MelsonGJr6'6"25-617.36.01.60.50.645.6%32.7%3.953.8%24.7%
24Ras Elijah GodboltGFr6'0"30-211.71.30.80.90.330.2%21.1%0.686.7%10.5%
15Josiah FrancisGSo6'8"14-06.91.42.10.00.631.8%18.2%0.883.3%20.7%
9Sebastian HaubroFFr6'10"23-03.70.60.90.20.240.0%—0.090.0%10.7%
5Chid EkwommaduGSo6'6"2-08.00.00.50.01.00.0%0.0%1.0—14.2%
11Tyler McQuaidGFr6'0"7-01.60.30.00.00.00.0%0.0%0.3100.0%16.1%
21Cole AlexanderFSr6'7"5-11.20.60.60.00.050.0%0.0%0.250.0%30.3%
30Andrew CandaGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Kody FreyGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
FDUEast Texas A&M
Efficiency
103.2
102.4
113.4
110.3
66.2
69.0
—
—
Shooting
47.1%
49.2%
48.6%
51.2%
30.3%
31.3%
70.1%
67.9%
32.8%
32.0%
Ball control & glass
18.1%
19.2%
16.1%
17.0%
32.0%
25.7%
27.3%
32.8%
9.8%
10.7%
9.4%
10.7%
Style
45.2%
46.2%
40.1%
41.9%
5.7%
13.4%
51.0%
62.4%
32.0%
32.7%
Roster
3.23
3.53
6'5.4"
6'5.8"
—
91.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
FDU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted FDU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

East Texas A&M
Returning minutes: 91.3%Returning production: 91.8%
Lost
  • Vinny Sigona 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Added
  • Kollin Tolbert no D1 minutes last season
  • Kamren Robinson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Adlam no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Mon, Nov 242025-26East Texas A&M 70 – 65 FDU

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.