Milwaukee Panthers vs Indiana State Sycamores basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET · Hulman Center, Terre Haute, IN
Non-conferenceESPN+Hulman Center, Terre Haute, IN
Milwaukee
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #296
@
Indiana St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #213
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET
73.278.3
Projected score
MILW win 33%INST win 67%
Consensus
Spread
INST −5.5
open INST −5.0
Total
151.5
open 151.5
Our line
INST −5.0
ML Milwaukee
+185
ML Indiana St
-225
Median of 7 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Indiana Strated 3.7 below average
−3.7
Milwaukeerated 4.5 below average
+4.5
Home court
+4.2
Our line
INST −5.0
◂ Milwaukee sideIndiana St side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Indiana St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Milwaukee is the faster team (77.0, #39 of 365) and Indiana St the slower (67.3, #282). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
151.5
Consensus · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.6#110
Milwaukee
70.5#189
Indiana St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
INST −5.0
Four factors +11.4 · not in these stats −6.4
From the four factors
Indiana St has the ball+5.1
Milwaukee has the ball−6.3
Indiana St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.3% #212 · MILW allows 61.3% #331+4.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.6% #103 · MILW forces 16.2% #233 · ~11 turnovers+2.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.4% #267 · MILW allows 30.2% #161−1.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 30.2% #249 · MILW allows 34.4% #156 · FT 77.1% #710.0
Milwaukee has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.7% #309 · INST forces 22.3% #66 · ~17 turnovers−4.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.5% #298 · INST allows 54.2% #241−2.6
✓Wins second chancesOR% 31.0% #190 · INST allows 35.4% #258+0.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 30.2% #250 · INST allows 42.5% #237 · FT 73.7% #122+0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootMilwaukeeoffense vsIndiana Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Milwaukee shoots
28.7
9.2
23.0
39.1
Indiana St allows
38.7
4.7
17.9
38.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 48.0%#290 | 48.8%#66 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 12.5%#314 | 80.0%#345 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 57.9%#325 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.5%#268 | 36.6%#273 | 32.5% |
Indiana Stoffense vsMilwaukeedefense
Share of shots by zone
Indiana St shoots
48.3
11.2
8.6
31.9
Milwaukee allows
47.1
4.6
12.6
35.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 63.4%#248 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.5%#161 | 25.0%#76 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 27.3%#106 | 34.7% |
| Three | 37.8%#85 | 45.1%#342 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineMilwaukee
−5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#190
Def reb %
69.8%
#161
Turnover %
22.7%
#309
Forced TO %
16.2%
#233
FT rate
30.2%
#250
FT allowed
34.4%
#156
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−3.2
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+0.9
Indiana St
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#193 of 365
Off reb %
26.4%
#267
Def reb %
64.6%
#258
Turnover %
15.6%
#103
Forced TO %
22.3%
#66
FT rate
30.2%
#249
FT allowed
42.5%
#237
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2
Indiana St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#193 of 365) to Milwaukee’s −5.1 (#248).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notMilwaukee2026-27 numbers · last game: Santa Clara, Nov 4
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 27.0 | 32 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 31.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | 72.2% | 30.2% | |
| 1 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 3-2 | 25.7 | 20 | — | Started last | 9.7 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 33.9% | 14.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 30.0% | |
| 35 | F | So | 6'10" | 3-2 | 22.7 | 24 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 40.0% | 1.7 | 0.0% | 20.5% | |
| 24 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-1 | 19.0 | 20 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 43.2% | 31.3% | 5.3 | 100.0% | 22.0% | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-0 | 18.7 | 20 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 60.5% | 50.0% | 4.7 | 80.0% | 22.0% | |
| 3 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 26.5 | 29 | — | Started last | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 15.9% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-1 | 15.3 | 8 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 86.4% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 16.0% | |
| 8 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 14.3 | 20 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 17.3% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 12.0 | 13 | — | Bench | 8.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 63.2% | 40.0% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 31.1% | |
| 11 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 17.5 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 9.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 70.8% | 42.9% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 23.8% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 16.5 | 18 | — | Started last | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 45.5% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 28.5% | |
| 22 | G | Sr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 16.0 | — | — | Missed last | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 20.3% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesMilwaukee
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +0.8
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Ripon Red Hawks | H | W 99–48 | — | — | — | — | 134.4 | 65.2 | 73.7 |
| Nov 4 | Santa Clara | A | L 72–95 | +16.5 | L−6.5 | 162.0 | O167 | 91.5 | 120.7 | 78.7 |
| Nov 2 | #21USC | A | L 63–95 | +26.5 | L−5.5 | 161.5 | U158 | 83.7 | 126.2 | 75.3 |
| Mar 4 | Detroit Mercy | A | L 63–84 | +1.0 | L−20.0 | 151.5 | U147 | 93.7 | 124.9 | 67.2 |
| Feb 25 | Youngstown St | H | W 78–65 | +1.0 | W+14.0 | 148.5 | U143 | 113.9 | 94.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 22 | Oakland | A | L 70–81 | +6.5 | L−4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 107.1 | 123.9 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Detroit Mercy | A | L 86–91 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 153.0 | O177 | 122.5 | 129.7 | 70.2 |
| Feb 15 | Green Bay | H | W 75–72 | −2.5 | W+0.5 | 145.5 | O147 | 121.8 | 117.0 | 61.6 |
| Feb 10 | IU Indy | A | W 92–88 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 158.0 | O180 | 118.7 | 113.6 | 77.5 |
| Feb 7 | N Kentucky | A | L 62–67 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 156.5 | U129 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 62.6 |
Indiana St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.2
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −8.0
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Ball State | A | W 69–66 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 146.5 | U135 | 99.8 | 95.5 | 69.1 |
| Nov 2 | Charlotte | H | L 70–78 | +5.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U148 | 107.1 | 119.3 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | Valparaiso | N | L 62–63 | +2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U125 | 103.9 | 105.6 | 59.7 |
| Mar 1 | UIC | H | W 79–63 | +4.0 | W+20.0 | 144.0 | U142 | 117.0 | 93.3 | 67.5 |
| Feb 25 | S Illinois | A | L 55–66 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 77.8 | 93.4 | 70.7 |
| Feb 21 | Belmont | A | L 70–87 | +13.0 | L−4.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 95.9 | 119.2 | 73.0 |
| Feb 18 | Northern Iowa | H | L 60–81 | +5.0 | L−16.0 | 135.5 | O141 | 92.3 | 124.6 | 65.0 |
| Feb 15 | Valparaiso | A | L 75–76 | +5.0 | W+4.0 | 145.0 | O151 | 122.8 | 124.4 | 61.1 |
| Feb 12 | Murray St | H | L 72–74 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 164.0 | U146 | 110.9 | 114.0 | 64.9 |
| Feb 9 | S Illinois | H | L 65–80 | +1.5 | L−13.5 | 147.5 | U145 | 87.1 | 107.2 | 74.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMilwaukeeIndiana St
Efficiency
102.1
103.6
111.0
106.9
71.6
70.5
10.1
-3.8
Shooting
42.5%
48.3%
44.2%
44.3%
26.5%
37.8%
73.7%
77.1%
30.2%
30.2%
Ball control & glass
22.7%
15.6%
16.2%
22.3%
31.0%
26.4%
30.2%
35.4%
15.6%
6.7%
15.6%
8.9%
Style
38.9%
31.9%
45.9%
46.0%
13.3%
10.1%
44.7%
51.0%
43.6%
33.0%
Roster
2.57
2.95
6'4.9"
6'5.3"
27.4%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMilwaukee
Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 29.9%
Lost
- Aaron Franklin 25.2 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Stevie Elam 20.5 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to Miami OH
- Amar Augillard 20.2 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Josh Dixon 18.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to GA Southern
- Esyah Pippa-White 18.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to Hou Christian
- Faizon Fields 13.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tre Norman from Marquette · 7.6 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Al Amadou from Saint Joseph's · 1.9 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Jake Hansen from Oklahoma · 0.1 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- SJ Young no D1 minutes last season
- Nate Malosa no D1 minutes last season
- Dylan Omweno no D1 minutes last season
Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Indiana St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Ian Scott 30.0 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Camp Wagner 28.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to UC San Diego
- Xavier Hall 27.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sterling Young 21.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bruno Alocen 21.3 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Valparaiso
- Enel St. Bernard 17.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Sam Houston
Added
- Meechie White from E Illinois · 30.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
- Karmani Gregory from SC Upstate · 29.6 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
- Maguire Mitchell from IU Indy · 26.3 mpg, 11.8 ppg last season
- Duce Paschal from Weber St · 12.3 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
- Chance Puryear from SMU · 1.0 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Aleksa Vlajic from Buffalo · 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -5.5-108 | 151.5o-115 u-105 | -225 | +185 |
| BetMGM | -5.5-105 | 151.5o-115 u-105 | -225 | +185 |
| Caesars | -5.5-110 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -5→-5.5-105 | 152o-110 u-110 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline | -4.5→-5-110 | 151.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -5.5-110 | 151.5o-115 u-105 | -225 | +185 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5-110 | 151.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5-203 | 151.5o-108 u-108 | -213 | +186 |
| Polymarket | -5.5-113 | — | -223 | +170 |
| Novig | -2.5→-5.5+102 | 151.5o-117 u+100 | -233 | +178 |
DraftKings
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 14 | 2025-26 | Indiana St 70 – 68 Milwaukee |
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- AR-Pine Bluff at UCLA · 9:00 PM ET
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.