CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Super Pit, Denton, TX
Santa Clara
Efficiency #33
2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf
@
North Texas
Efficiency #151
2025-26: 19-14 · 10-10 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
74.1
win 61%
Projected
70.7
win 39%
No line posted yet.
Model: SCU −3.4 · total 144.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Texas 66.8, Santa Clara 69.5 → 67.9 possessions
−0.9
North Texas offense vs Santa Clara defense
−4.9
Santa Clara offense vs North Texas defense
+2.4
Projected total
144.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Texas offense vs Santa Clara defense
−4.9
Santa Clara offense vs North Texas defense
−2.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Santa Clara by 3.4
3.4
Santa Clara side ◂▸ North Texas side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Texas.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Santa Clara is the faster team (69.5, #113 of 365) and North Texas the slower (66.0, #294). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.8
model
Projected team totals
74.1 / 70.7
Santa Clara / North Texas
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#84
Santa Clara
66.8#304
North Texas
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNorth Texas
Where North Texas struggles: shooting
North Texas shoots an effective 46.0% (#349); Santa Clara allows 52.0% (#213). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSanta Clara
Where Santa Clara scores: the offensive glass
Santa Clara rebounds 36.4% of its own misses (#20); North Texas lets opponents grab 32.4% of their own misses (#278). Expect about 35.6%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversSanta Clara
Santa Clara turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Santa Clara's offense.
TurnoversNorth Texas
North Texas turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.8% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against North Texas's offense.
DefenseNorth Texas
North Texas's shot-blocking
North Texas ranks #22 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Santa Clara's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
DefenseNorth Texas
North Texas's ball-hawking
North Texas ranks #10 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Santa Clara's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Santa Clara has the ball
OffenseNorth Texas allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #53
48.4% #47
+0.6 pt/100
15.4% #99
21.3% #6
-2.6 pt/100
36.4% #20
32.4% #278
+3.2 pt/100
25.5% #363
45.1% #350
+0.2 pt/100
74.4% #106
—
+0.2 pt/100
Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
North Texas has the ball
OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg
46.0% #349
52.0% #213
-3.8 pt/100
16.7% #180
19.9% #25
-2.4 pt/100
33.5% #76
32.1% #262
+1.8 pt/100
39.6% #63
38.2% #264
+0.5 pt/100
70.0% #273
—
-0.2 pt/100
North Texas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSanta Claraoffense vsNorth Texasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Clara shoots
35.1
10.4
10.2
44.2
North Texas allows
38.7
7.3
15.7
38.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.3%#84 | 60.2%#240 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.2%#37 | 27.8%#7 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.1%#24 | 34.4%#60 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.9%#125 | 30.9%#32 | 33.7% |
North Texasoffense vsSanta Claradefense
Share of shots by zone
North Texas shoots
42.9
10.7
14.0
32.4
Santa Clara allows
43.0
5.2
13.7
38.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.3%#185 | 61.4%#281 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 29.0%#353 | 38.4%#144 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.8%#348 | 32.9%#26 | 38.0% |
| Three | 28.7%#358 | 33.1%#127 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSanta Clara
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#20
Def reb %
67.9%
#262
Turnover %
15.4%
#99
Forced TO %
19.9%
#25
FT rate
25.5%
#363
FT allowed
38.2%
#264
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.8
North Texas
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#85 of 365
Off reb %
33.5%
#76
Def reb %
67.6%
#278
Turnover %
16.7%
#180
Forced TO %
21.3%
#6
FT rate
39.6%
#63
FT allowed
45.1%
#350
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+3.2
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.5
North Texas has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#85 of 365) to Santa Clara’s +1.4 (#123).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Santa Clara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Hammond | G | So | 6'4" | 34-34 | 30.3 | 15.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 54.9% | 39.3% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 28.7% | |
| 44 | Jake Ensminger | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 66.1% | 39.8% | 2.8 | 66.7% | 11.6% | |
| 0 | Brenton Knapper | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 45.6% | 27.4% | 3.4 | 79.2% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Sash Gavalyugov | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-2 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 51.6% | 35.8% | 5.3 | 72.0% | 28.4% | |
| 15 | Thierry Darlan | G | Jr | 6'8" | 35-1 | 17.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 33.9% | 3.4 | 88.6% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | KJ Cochran | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 51.4% | 27.1% | 2.5 | 65.2% | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Francis Chukwudebelu | C | Fr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 52.0% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 11.5% | |
| 50 | Brendan Yarusso | G | Sr | 6'1" | 8-0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 77.2% | |
| 51 | Juan Reyna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Brad Longcor III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Chris Tadjo | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Gehrig Normand | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 54 | Malachi Douyon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Noah Badibanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Texas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | David Terrell Jr. | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 32.8 | 13.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 45.6% | 25.7% | 2.1 | 67.3% | 28.1% | |
| 4 | Je'Shawn Stevenson | G | So | 6'2" | 33-33 | 32.2 | 17.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 46.3% | 30.3% | 7.4 | 83.6% | 33.9% | |
| 12 | Dylan Arnett | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 26.5 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 47.1% | — | 0.0 | 41.9% | 21.6% | |
| 10 | Cole Franklin | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-23 | 25.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 45.6% | 26.2% | 1.8 | 66.1% | 17.3% | |
| 15 | Reece Robinson | F | So | 6'8" | 33-33 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 54.8% | 34.0% | 1.5 | 72.4% | 20.0% | |
| 0 | Demarion Watson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-10 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 40.4% | 26.2% | 1.3 | 70.0% | 13.5% | |
| 2 | Cahmai Crosby | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-0 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 48.8% | 34.7% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 18.5% | |
| 8 | Josiah Shackleford | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 55.8% | — | 0.0 | 46.0% | 31.5% | |
| 6 | EJ Horton | G | Fr | 6'3" | 30-0 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 49.3% | 25.7% | 1.2 | 60.9% | 20.8% | |
| 11 | Curtis Stinson Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 29.5% | 12.5% | 0.3 | 86.7% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Will McClendon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 24.3 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 51.7% | 45.0% | 5.0 | 84.0% | 29.4% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Santa Clara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Hammond | G | So | 6'4" | 34-34 | 30.3 | 15.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 54.9% | 39.3% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 28.7% | |
| 44 | Jake Ensminger | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 66.1% | 39.8% | 2.8 | 66.7% | 11.6% | |
| 0 | Brenton Knapper | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 45.6% | 27.4% | 3.4 | 79.2% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Sash Gavalyugov | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-2 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 51.6% | 35.8% | 5.3 | 72.0% | 28.4% | |
| 15 | Thierry Darlan | G | Jr | 6'8" | 35-1 | 17.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 33.9% | 3.4 | 88.6% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | KJ Cochran | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 51.4% | 27.1% | 2.5 | 65.2% | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Francis Chukwudebelu | C | Fr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 52.0% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 11.5% | |
| 50 | Brendan Yarusso | G | Sr | 6'1" | 8-0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 77.2% | |
| 51 | Juan Reyna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Brad Longcor III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Chris Tadjo | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Gehrig Normand | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 54 | Malachi Douyon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Noah Badibanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Santa Clara
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
9-5
Road
6-5
Last 10
3-7
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-15
Home
8-6
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +7.6
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #7Kentucky | N | L 84–89 OT | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 157.5 | O173 | 112.6 | 119.3 | 74.6 |
| Mar 10 | #12Gonzaga | N | L 68–79 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 156.5 | U147 | 112.7 | 130.9 | 60.4 |
| Mar 9 | #21Saint Mary's | N | W 76–71 | +4.5 | W+9.5 | 150.0 | U147 | 122.9 | 114.8 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | Pacific | N | W 76–68 | −9.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | U144 | 128.4 | 114.9 | 59.2 |
| Feb 28 | Oregon St | H | W 93–72 | −16.5 | W+4.5 | 153.0 | O165 | 135.8 | 105.2 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Mary's | A | L 67–86 | +5.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | U153 | 102.4 | 131.5 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | San Francisco | A | W 94–73 | −6.5 | W+14.5 | 159.0 | O167 | 125.9 | 97.8 | 74.7 |
| Feb 14 | #12Gonzaga | H | L 86–94 | +5.0 | L−3.0 | 158.5 | O180 | 112.6 | 123.1 | 76.4 |
| Feb 11 | Seattle U | H | W 84–72 | −12.5 | L−0.5 | 147.0 | O156 | 122.8 | 105.2 | 68.4 |
| Feb 7 | Washington St | A | W 96–92 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 135.5 | 129.8 | 70.9 |
North Texas
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
6-9
Road
7-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.1
Covered 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-16-1
Home
7-8
Road
5-6-1
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +4.0
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Tulsa | N | L 84–90 3OT | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 142.0 | O174 | 92.1 | 98.7 | 91.2 |
| Mar 12 | FAU | N | W 74–70 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 137.0 | O144 | 103.4 | 97.8 | 71.5 |
| Mar 4 | Rice | H | W 62–58 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 138.0 | U120 | 101.6 | 95.0 | 61.0 |
| Mar 1 | UAB | A | W 62–58 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 141.5 | U120 | 96.7 | 90.4 | 64.1 |
| Feb 25 | Charlotte | A | L 79–80 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 133.5 | O159 | 124.8 | 126.4 | 63.3 |
| Feb 22 | FAU | H | W 73–72 | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 140.5 | O145 | 113.7 | 112.1 | 64.2 |
| Feb 19 | Tulane | H | L 71–77 | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 137.5 | O148 | 108.3 | 117.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 15 | Temple | A | W 65–62 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 135.0 | U127 | 101.9 | 97.2 | 63.8 |
| Feb 12 | Memphis | H | W 76–69 | +1.5 | W+8.5 | 138.0 | O145 | 110.5 | 100.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 7 | UTSA | A | W 81–58 | −10.0 | W+13.0 | 138.5 | O139 | 116.1 | 83.2 | 69.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSanta ClaraNorth Texas
Efficiency
117.3
104.4
105.4
103.2
69.5
66.8
—
—
Shooting
54.4%
46.0%
56.1%
47.4%
34.9%
28.7%
74.4%
70.0%
25.5%
39.6%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
16.7%
19.9%
21.3%
36.4%
33.5%
32.1%
32.4%
9.2%
9.3%
9.0%
11.2%
Style
45.0%
32.3%
43.7%
49.5%
15.2%
19.9%
55.0%
50.5%
35.7%
31.3%
Roster
2.38
2.80
6'5.1"
6'5.2"
65.0%
93.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSanta Clara
Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%
Lost
- Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
- Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
- Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
- Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
- Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
- Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Texas
Returning minutes: 93.9%Returning production: 93.6%
Lost
- Buddy Hammer Jr. 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Akron
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Dec 17 | 2025-26 | North Texas 60 – 63 Santa Clara(N) |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.