CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Abilene), Abilene, TX

SF Austin

Efficiency #73

2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf

Abilene Chrstn

Efficiency #263

2025-26: 14-19 · 6-14 conf

Wed, Nov 11 · TBD

72.5

win 64%

Projected

68.4

win 36%

No line posted yet.

Model: SFA −4.1 · total 140.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Abilene Chrstn 68.4, SF Austin 67.3 → 67.4 possessions

−2.1

Abilene Chrstn offense vs SF Austin defense

−6.6

SF Austin offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense

+1.4

Projected total

140.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Abilene Chrstn offense vs SF Austin defense

−6.6

SF Austin offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense

−1.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

SF Austin by 4.1

4.1

SF Austin side ◂▸ Abilene Chrstn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Abilene Chrstn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Abilene Chrstn is the faster team (68.9, #153 of 365) and SF Austin the slower (66.2, #285). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.9

model

Projected team totals

72.5 / 68.4

SF Austin / Abilene Chrstn

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.3#268

SF Austin

68.4#177

Abilene Chrstn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageAbilene Chrstn

Where Abilene Chrstn struggles: shooting

Abilene Chrstn shoots an effective 47.5% (#326); SF Austin allows 47.7% (#35). Expect about 47.3%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSF Austin

Where SF Austin scores: shooting

SF Austin shoots an effective 51.7% (#160); Abilene Chrstn allows 56.5% (#352). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversAbilene Chrstn

Abilene Chrstn turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.6% is worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions against Abilene Chrstn's offense.

ClashSF Austin

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

SF Austin (#29 in turnover rate) against Abilene Chrstn (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 19.6%. Historically Abilene Chrstn's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

ClashAbilene Chrstn

Style match: 3-point volume

Abilene Chrstn rarely shoots threes (32.8% of its shots); SF Austin runs teams off the line (35.5% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.6% — both habits push the same way.

ClashSF Austin

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

SF Austin (#51 in live-ball turnovers) against Abilene Chrstn (#3 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.8%. Historically Abilene Chrstn's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

SF Austin has the ball

OffenseAbilene Chrstn allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #160

56.5% #352

+4.1 pt/100

14.3% #29

23.4% #2

-3.4 pt/100

33.8% #74

29.1% #113

+1.1 pt/100

30.1% #306

53.5% #365

+1.1 pt/100

68.6% #310

—

-0.3 pt/100

SF Austin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100

Abilene Chrstn has the ball

OffenseSF Austin allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #326

47.7% #35

-5.7 pt/100

20.8% #356

17.6% #116

-3.5 pt/100

31.0% #164

29.5% #131

-0.0 pt/100

41.7% #34

31.1% #85

+0.1 pt/100

70.4% #258

—

-0.2 pt/100

Abilene Chrstn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SF Austinoffense vsAbilene Chrstndefense

Share of shots by zone

SF Austin shoots

35.4

6.4

18.7

39.5

Abilene Chrstn allows

49.0

8.0

13.4

29.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.0%#240	60.3%#243	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.1%#102	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.5%#94	39.3%#214	38.0%
Three	35.8%#71	40.9%#365	33.7%

Abilene Chrstnoffense vsSF Austindefense

Share of shots by zone

Abilene Chrstn shoots

40.0

8.0

18.8

33.2

SF Austin allows

40.2

7.1

17.2

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.7%#280	53.1%#24	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.2%#300	43.6%#260	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.1%#108	39.8%#234	38.0%
Three	31.0%#319	30.3%#11	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SF Austin

+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#44 of 365

Off reb %

33.8%

#74

Def reb %

70.5%

#131

Turnover %

14.3%

#29

Forced TO %

17.6%

#116

FT rate

30.1%

#306

FT allowed

31.1%

#85

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+1.1

Abilene Chrstn

−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#199 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#164

Def reb %

70.9%

#113

Turnover %

20.8%

#356

Forced TO %

23.4%

FT rate

41.7%

#34

FT allowed

53.5%

#365

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−2.8

Forcing turnovers+4.6

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−4.7

SF Austin has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.6 (#44 of 365) to Abilene Chrstn’s −0.5 (#199).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SF Austin2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Keon Thompson	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	29.8	18.5	4.8	4.4	2.6	52.8%	32.1%	2.5	69.3%	38.3%
1	Chrishawn Christmas	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	29.1	6.3	6.8	1.8	0.8	54.0%	0.0%	0.1	43.1%	13.9%
11	Lateef Patrick	G	Jr	—	34-34	28.5	15.2	3.1	1.7	1.4	47.1%	33.8%	6.3	81.3%	34.0%
2	Jerald Colonel	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	25.1	5.0	7.3	1.3	0.7	50.4%	0.0%	0.0	56.4%	13.1%
6	Narit Chotikavanic	G	So	—	34-0	22.5	9.6	2.8	0.6	0.4	56.2%	39.4%	6.5	70.3%	23.3%
0	Kam Burton	G	Jr	6'3"	34-34	18.6	7.9	1.8	0.3	0.5	59.2%	42.5%	5.3	85.2%	22.4%
21	Ahamed Mohammed	G	Sr	—	34-0	15.8	4.4	1.7	1.5	0.8	42.5%	33.3%	1.9	75.0%	20.3%
17	Gediminas Alisas	F	So	—	34-0	14.0	4.9	2.4	1.2	0.8	63.2%	0.0%	0.0	67.6%	19.7%
4	Marcus Scurry	G	Fr	—	28-0	7.3	3.1	0.5	0.4	0.4	51.9%	35.6%	1.6	58.3%	26.8%
3	Christian Green	G	Jr	—	28-0	6.9	1.0	1.3	0.3	0.3	54.2%	—	0.0	33.3%	10.8%
12	Eltramon Smith Jr.	F	So	—	16-0	7.1	1.9	1.3	0.5	0.4	40.8%	13.0%	1.4	0.0%	23.8%
7	Tichyque Musaka	F	Jr	6'11"	8-0	3.8	1.6	1.9	0.1	0.1	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	20.0%	24.9%
9	Harris Dar	G	So	—	8-0	3.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	—	10.9%
8	Bryceson Melvin	G	Fr	—	4-0	5.8	1.8	2.0	0.0	0.0	23.1%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	32.3%
10	Yohan Gutierrez	F	Fr	—	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Abilene Chrstn2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Rich Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	29.5	9.9	3.9	4.7	2.6	51.6%	25.0%	0.4	63.8%	22.6%
15	Bradyn Hubbard	F	Sr	6'5"	32-29	28.1	16.3	4.7	1.6	2.3	45.5%	31.3%	4.5	79.9%	37.0%
23	Joseph Venzant	G	Sr	6'2"	33-23	25.2	4.4	3.2	0.8	1.0	55.3%	41.4%	0.9	77.3%	10.4%
5	Cbo Newton	G	So	6'3"	30-24	25.8	10.1	2.2	1.2	1.5	52.5%	30.6%	3.3	69.0%	23.9%
2	Yaniel Rivera	G	Jr	6'3"	29-21	24.4	7.2	1.4	2.3	1.6	49.2%	36.7%	4.4	69.0%	20.5%
0	Zy Wright	G	Sr	6'5"	33-6	17.4	6.3	2.3	0.6	0.9	51.7%	30.8%	2.0	85.0%	21.0%
21	Cade Hornecker	F	Jr	7'0"	33-19	15.9	5.3	3.4	1.2	1.2	46.6%	15.0%	0.6	69.8%	23.4%
10	Joseph Scott	F	Jr	6'9"	28-7	12.3	4.3	3.7	0.5	1.1	52.1%	0.0%	0.1	51.3%	24.4%
7	Christian Alston	G	So	6'7"	30-0	11.3	4.7	1.9	0.3	0.8	38.1%	22.2%	1.5	69.4%	31.6%
11	Ma'Shy Hill	F	Jr	6'8"	33-7	10.1	2.7	1.5	0.2	0.8	61.9%	—	0.0	39.3%	17.7%
24	Isaac Dye	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	8.2	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	2.3	75.0%	22.3%
3	Tylan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	24-0	5.0	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.3	30.0%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	14.1%
20	Isaiah Carrillo	G	Fr	5'10"	9-0	5.1	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	45.0%	25.0%	0.4	50.0%	15.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SF Austin2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Keon Thompson	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	29.8	18.5	4.8	4.4	2.6	52.8%	32.1%	2.5	69.3%	38.3%
1	Chrishawn Christmas	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	29.1	6.3	6.8	1.8	0.8	54.0%	0.0%	0.1	43.1%	13.9%
11	Lateef Patrick	G	Jr	—	34-34	28.5	15.2	3.1	1.7	1.4	47.1%	33.8%	6.3	81.3%	34.0%
2	Jerald Colonel	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	25.1	5.0	7.3	1.3	0.7	50.4%	0.0%	0.0	56.4%	13.1%
6	Narit Chotikavanic	G	So	—	34-0	22.5	9.6	2.8	0.6	0.4	56.2%	39.4%	6.5	70.3%	23.3%
0	Kam Burton	G	Jr	6'3"	34-34	18.6	7.9	1.8	0.3	0.5	59.2%	42.5%	5.3	85.2%	22.4%
21	Ahamed Mohammed	G	Sr	—	34-0	15.8	4.4	1.7	1.5	0.8	42.5%	33.3%	1.9	75.0%	20.3%
17	Gediminas Alisas	F	So	—	34-0	14.0	4.9	2.4	1.2	0.8	63.2%	0.0%	0.0	67.6%	19.7%
4	Marcus Scurry	G	Fr	—	28-0	7.3	3.1	0.5	0.4	0.4	51.9%	35.6%	1.6	58.3%	26.8%
3	Christian Green	G	Jr	—	28-0	6.9	1.0	1.3	0.3	0.3	54.2%	—	0.0	33.3%	10.8%
12	Eltramon Smith Jr.	F	So	—	16-0	7.1	1.9	1.3	0.5	0.4	40.8%	13.0%	1.4	0.0%	23.8%
7	Tichyque Musaka	F	Jr	6'11"	8-0	3.8	1.6	1.9	0.1	0.1	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	20.0%	24.9%
9	Harris Dar	G	So	—	8-0	3.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	—	10.9%
8	Bryceson Melvin	G	Fr	—	4-0	5.8	1.8	2.0	0.0	0.0	23.1%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	32.3%
10	Yohan Gutierrez	F	Fr	—	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SF Austin

Against the spread

Season

23-9

Home

10-4

Road

13-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Covered the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	TulsaAdjEM #46	A	L 84–89 OT	+6.5	W+1.5	150.5	O173	107.0	113.3	78.5
Mar 11	McNeeseAdjEM #49	N	L 59–76	+3.5	L−13.5	134.5	O135	92.4	119.0	63.9
Mar 10	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	N	W 60–58	−6.0	L−4.0	134.5	U118	98.0	94.7	61.3
Mar 2	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	A	W 76–68	−7.0	W+1.0	143.5	O144	126.2	113.0	60.2
Feb 28	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	A	W 77–56	−8.5	W+12.5	137.5	U133	122.9	89.4	62.6
Feb 23	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #221	H	L 73–77	−11.5	L−15.5	152.0	U150	107.5	113.4	67.9
Feb 21	NichollsAdjEM #250	H	W 81–78	−12.0	L−9.0	148.5	O159	122.0	117.5	66.4
Feb 16	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	W 78–68	−5.0	W+5.0	136.5	O146	116.4	101.5	67.0
Feb 14	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	W 66–57	+2.5	W+11.5	143.5	U123	105.5	91.1	62.6
Feb 9	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	H	W 74–70	−15.0	L−11.0	144.5	U144	110.7	104.7	66.8

Abilene Chrstn

Against the spread

Season

13-17

Home

4-7

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

6-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +6.5

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	Utah TechAdjEM #216	N	L 74–80	+1.5	L−4.5	141.5	O154	105.1	113.6	70.4
Mar 11	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	N	W 84–78	−1.0	W+5.0	135.0	O162	109.8	102.0	76.5
Mar 7	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	H	L 57–64	−1.0	L−8.0	133.0	U121	87.1	97.8	65.4
Mar 5	CA BaptistAdjEM #102	A	L 48–87	+10.0	L−29.0	137.0	U135	66.2	120.1	72.5
Feb 28	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	A	L 67–74	+15.0	W+8.0	140.5	O141	96.6	106.7	69.3
Feb 26	Utah TechAdjEM #216	A	L 81–85	+2.0	L−2.0	139.0	O166	115.9	121.7	69.9
Feb 21	Southern UtahAdjEM #293	H	W 87–83	−8.0	L−4.0	143.5	O170	115.9	110.6	75.1
Feb 16	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	A	L 62–65 OT	−1.0	L−4.0	133.5	U127	81.8	85.8	75.8
Feb 14	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	H	W 73–59	−3.0	W+11.0	135.5	U132	104.1	84.2	70.1
Feb 12	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	H	W 67–63	−1.5	W+2.5	135.0	U130	99.7	93.7	67.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SF AustinAbilene Chrstn

Efficiency

111.2

102.6

104.5

107.7

67.3

68.4

—

Shooting

51.7%

47.5%

50.4%

48.0%

35.8%

31.0%

68.6%

70.4%

30.1%

41.7%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

20.8%

17.6%

23.4%

33.8%

31.0%

29.5%

29.1%

8.2%

12.3%

10.1%

12.6%

Style

39.8%

32.8%

41.1%

44.0%

9.6%

16.5%

48.5%

54.1%

34.7%

37.1%

Roster

3.23

3.22

6'4.5"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SF Austin

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Abilene Chrstn

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 14	2025-26	Abilene Chrstn 66 – 76 SF Austin

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.