CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFreedom Hall (TN), Johnson City, TN
Campbell
Efficiency #208
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
@
ETSU
Efficiency #110
2025-26: 23-11 · 15-6 conf
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
72.5
win 27%
Projected
79.7
win 73%
No line posted yet.
Model: ETSU −7.2 · total 152.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: ETSU 67.4, Campbell 69.9 → 69.0 possessions
+1.5
ETSU offense vs Campbell defense
+2.8
Campbell offense vs ETSU defense
−0.4
Projected total
152.2
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
ETSU offense vs Campbell defense
+2.8
Campbell offense vs ETSU defense
+0.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
ETSU by 7.2
7.2
Campbell side ◂▸ ETSU side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.1 against a projected 152.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help ETSU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Campbell is the faster team (70.0, #93 of 365) and ETSU the slower (66.5, #268). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.2
model
Projected team totals
72.5 / 79.7
Campbell / ETSU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#53
Campbell
67.4#257
ETSU
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageETSU
Where ETSU scores: shooting
ETSU shoots an effective 55.3% (#33); Campbell allows 53.9% (#295). Expect about 54.9%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseETSU
ETSU's ball-hawking
ETSU ranks #11 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Campbell's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageCampbell
Where Campbell struggles: ball control
Campbell turns it over on 17.6% of possessions (#241); ETSU forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#74). Expect about 18.3%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashETSU
Style match: paint scoring
ETSU scores 46.9% of its points in the paint; Campbell gives up 50.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.5% — both habits push the same way.
ClashCampbell
Style clash: paint scoring
Campbell scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; ETSU protects the paint (39.0% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Campbell has the ball
OffenseETSU allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #230
51.0% #161
-1.1 pt/100
17.6% #241
18.5% #74
-1.9 pt/100
33.5% #77
27.9% #64
+0.6 pt/100
43.5% #16
36.4% #225
+0.6 pt/100
72.5% #190
—
+0.0 pt/100
Campbell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
ETSU has the ball
OffenseCampbell allowsvs D1 avg
55.3% #33
53.9% #295
+5.2 pt/100
15.2% #78
17.0% #157
+1.0 pt/100
28.3% #252
32.0% #254
-0.4 pt/100
35.0% #180
37.0% #238
+0.1 pt/100
74.7% #93
—
+0.2 pt/100
ETSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersCampbelloffense vsETSUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Campbell shoots
45.5
9.5
8.5
36.5
ETSU allows
36.1
3.7
12.5
47.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.3%#218 | 59.6%#210 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.1%#329 | 44.8%#293 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#292 | 33.8%#48 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.3%#267 | 32.9%#110 | 33.7% |
ETSUoffense vsCampbelldefense
Share of shots by zone
ETSU shoots
42.8
4.8
15.4
36.9
Campbell allows
45.0
9.9
15.5
29.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.9%#52 | 63.2%#327 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#21 | 33.7%#40 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.1%#77 | 35.5%#89 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#132 | 35.5%#277 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCampbell
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#105 of 365
Off reb %
33.5%
#77
Def reb %
68.0%
#254
Turnover %
17.6%
#241
Forced TO %
17.0%
#157
FT rate
43.5%
#16
FT allowed
37.0%
#238
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
ETSU
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#86 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#252
Def reb %
72.1%
#64
Turnover %
15.2%
#78
Forced TO %
18.5%
#74
FT rate
35.0%
#180
FT allowed
36.4%
#225
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
ETSU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#86 of 365) to Campbell’s +1.9 (#105).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Campbell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | DJ Smith | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 34.4 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 49.1% | 33.9% | 8.5 | 83.6% | 31.0% | |
| 7 | Cam Gregory | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 52.9% | 33.1% | 3.7 | 76.5% | 14.3% | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Johnson | G | So | 6'4" | 34-31 | 32.4 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 51.9% | 37.4% | 3.9 | 86.5% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Dovydas Butka | F | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 33.9 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 51.0% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 55.3% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Tasos Cook | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-8 | 24.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 50.3% | 35.8% | 3.3 | 79.2% | 17.0% | |
| 11 | Muneer Newton | F | Sr | 6'5" | 34-27 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 70.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 17.6% | |
| 0 | Chris Fields Jr. | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-5 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 46.6% | 7.7% | 0.5 | 64.6% | 34.2% | |
| 22 | Dominykas Butka | G | Fr | 6'6" | 22-0 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.4 | 62.5% | 17.5% | |
| 5 | Enoch Kalambay | G | Sr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.0% | 12.5% | 1.6 | — | 22.4% | |
| 4 | Broc Bidwell | G | Sr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 61.1% | 42.9% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 20.3% | |
| 15 | Terren Frank | F | Sr | 6'8" | 6-1 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 18.2% | |
| 32 | Daniel Marcellinus | F | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 9.8% | |
| 12 | Israel Yaw | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Klairus Amir | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
ETSU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Brian Taylor II | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 33.2 | 14.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 53.2% | 34.9% | 4.5 | 76.4% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Blake Barkley | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.6 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 62.2% | 38.3% | 1.5 | 84.0% | 26.2% | |
| 15 | Cam Morris III | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 59.1% | 32.3% | 0.9 | 66.9% | 28.4% | |
| 4 | Jaylen Smith | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-3 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 49.4% | 34.4% | 4.4 | 80.0% | 25.3% | |
| 2 | Maki Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 34-1 | 22.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 38.5% | 4.0 | 64.3% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | Allen Strothers | G | Sr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 21.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 51.8% | 32.1% | 0.8 | 70.3% | 13.9% | |
| 35 | Jordan McCullum | F | So | 6'8" | 34-32 | 21.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 55.5% | 20.5% | 1.3 | 69.8% | 22.8% | |
| 24 | Isaiah Sutherland | F | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.7% | 33.9% | 2.3 | 55.6% | 19.2% | |
| 55 | Milton Matthews III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 57.9% | 38.7% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 21 | Gabe Sisk | G | Jr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 51.2% | 10.0% | 0.6 | 90.0% | 20.3% | |
| 14 | Brayden Crump | F | So | 6'8" | 11-1 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 54.3% | 31.3% | 1.5 | 70.0% | 22.1% | |
| 30 | Henry Sisemore | F | Fr | 6'8" | 7-0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 25 | Joseph Carter | G | Fr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.9% | |
| 23 | Frederico Whitaker Jr. | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Maddox Huff | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Campbell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | DJ Smith | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 34.4 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 49.1% | 33.9% | 8.5 | 83.6% | 31.0% | |
| 7 | Cam Gregory | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 52.9% | 33.1% | 3.7 | 76.5% | 14.3% | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Johnson | G | So | 6'4" | 34-31 | 32.4 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 51.9% | 37.4% | 3.9 | 86.5% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Dovydas Butka | F | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 33.9 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 51.0% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 55.3% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Tasos Cook | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-8 | 24.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 50.3% | 35.8% | 3.3 | 79.2% | 17.0% | |
| 11 | Muneer Newton | F | Sr | 6'5" | 34-27 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 70.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 17.6% | |
| 0 | Chris Fields Jr. | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-5 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 46.6% | 7.7% | 0.5 | 64.6% | 34.2% | |
| 22 | Dominykas Butka | G | Fr | 6'6" | 22-0 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.4 | 62.5% | 17.5% | |
| 5 | Enoch Kalambay | G | Sr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.0% | 12.5% | 1.6 | — | 22.4% | |
| 4 | Broc Bidwell | G | Sr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 61.1% | 42.9% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 20.3% | |
| 15 | Terren Frank | F | Sr | 6'8" | 6-1 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 18.2% | |
| 32 | Daniel Marcellinus | F | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 9.8% | |
| 12 | Israel Yaw | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Klairus Amir | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Campbell
Against the spread
Season
18-13-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
9-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
6-6
Road
9-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −4.3
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Monmouth | N | L 64–74 | +1.5 | L−8.5 | 152.0 | U138 | 95.2 | 110.1 | 67.2 |
| Mar 8 | UNC Wilmington | N | W 85–70 | +7.5 | W+22.5 | 149.0 | O155 | 118.7 | 97.8 | 71.6 |
| Mar 7 | Stony Brook | N | W 96–89 | −3.0 | W+4.0 | 147.0 | O185 | 132.8 | 123.2 | 72.3 |
| Mar 3 | NC A&T | H | W 90–72 | −7.5 | W+10.5 | 155.0 | O162 | 127.3 | 101.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 28 | Towson | A | L 67–71 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 141.5 | U138 | 113.2 | 120.0 | 59.2 |
| Feb 26 | Drexel | A | L 60–65 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 141.5 | U125 | 94.2 | 102.0 | 63.7 |
| Feb 21 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 68–73 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 150.5 | U141 | 99.5 | 106.8 | 68.3 |
| Feb 19 | William & Mary | H | W 84–83 | +2.5 | W+3.5 | 167.5 | U167 | 113.1 | 111.8 | 74.3 |
| Feb 15 | Charleston | H | L 57–62 | −2.5 | L−7.5 | 160.0 | U119 | 93.8 | 102.0 | 60.8 |
| Feb 7 | NC A&T | A | W 79–71 | −3.0 | W+5.0 | 159.5 | U150 | 112.6 | 101.2 | 70.2 |
ETSU
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
8-7
Road
6-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14-1
Home
7-7-1
Road
9-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.6
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Furman | N | L 61–76 | −1.0 | L−16.0 | 138.0 | U137 | 98.6 | 122.9 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | W Carolina | N | W 69–67 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 146.0 | U136 | 105.5 | 102.4 | 65.4 |
| Mar 7 | The Citadel | N | W 83–76 | −15.0 | L−8.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 127.7 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Feb 28 | Mercer | A | L 76–82 | +1.5 | L−4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 119.0 | 128.4 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Wofford | H | L 69–72 | −7.0 | L−10.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 103.8 | 108.3 | 66.5 |
| Feb 21 | UNC Greensboro | A | W 87–75 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 149.0 | O162 | 130.1 | 112.1 | 66.9 |
| Feb 18 | Furman | A | W 78–69 | +1.5 | W+10.5 | 141.0 | O147 | 114.4 | 101.2 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | Samford | H | L 72–82 OT | −6.0 | L−16.0 | 145.5 | O154 | 95.7 | 109.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 11 | Chattanooga | H | W 73–61 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | U134 | 110.3 | 92.2 | 66.2 |
| Feb 7 | VMI | A | W 87–70 | −14.5 | W+2.5 | 144.0 | O157 | 123.2 | 99.1 | 70.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCampbellETSU
Efficiency
109.3
110.1
110.9
107.0
69.9
67.4
—
—
Shooting
50.1%
55.3%
51.2%
57.2%
32.3%
34.7%
72.5%
74.7%
43.5%
35.0%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
15.2%
17.0%
18.5%
33.5%
28.3%
32.0%
27.9%
9.7%
8.6%
10.5%
7.5%
Style
36.9%
37.8%
46.3%
46.9%
16.1%
12.2%
44.9%
50.8%
22.5%
34.9%
Roster
3.22
3.08
6'4.2"
6'4.7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCampbell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
ETSU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.