North Carolina Central Eagles vs VMI Keydets basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 6:00 PM ET · Cameron Hall, Lexington, VA
Non-conferenceESPN+Cameron Hall, Lexington, VA
NC Central
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #311
@
VMI
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #346
Wed, Nov 11 · 6:00 PM ET
69.582.0
Projected score
NCCU win 14%VMI win 86%
Consensus
Spread
VMI −6.5
open VMI −6.5
Total
150.5
open 151.5
Our line
VMI −12.5
ML NC Central
+208
ML VMI
-257
Median of 7 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
VMIrated 9.0 below average
−9.0
NC Centralrated 17.2 below average
+17.2
Home court
+4.3
Our line
VMI −12.5
◂ NC Central sideVMI side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward VMI. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, VMI is the faster team (76.7, #45 of 365) and NC Central the slower (69.4, #223). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
150.5
Consensus · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#281
NC Central
72.2#81
VMI
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
VMI −12.5
Four factors −1.9 · not in these stats +14.4
From the four factors
VMI has the ball−5.8
NC Central has the ball−3.9
VMI has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 38.2% #339 · NCCU allows 52.5% #213−5.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 24.1% #327 · NCCU forces 16.9% #210 · ~15 turnovers−2.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 38.5% #62 · NCCU allows 27.5% #118+1.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 49.6% #57 · NCCU allows 36.4% #179 · FT 79.7% #48+1.1
NC Central has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.4% #242 · VMI allows 27.4% #114−1.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.2% #289 · VMI allows 25.6% #55 · FT 70.6% #165−1.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.7% #233 · VMI forces 18.3% #162 · ~13 turnovers−0.7
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 45.2% #263 · VMI allows 55.4% #265−0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootNC Centraloffense vsVMIdefense
Share of shots by zone
NC Central shoots
48.7
7.8
14.8
28.7
VMI allows
33.3
11.1
9.4
46.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 53.8%#121 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 55.6%#64 | 69.2%#332 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.3%#164 | 63.6%#338 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.4%#197 | 35.6%#245 | 32.5% |
VMIoffense vsNC Centraldefense
Share of shots by zone
VMI shoots
41.7
3.9
15.5
38.8
NC Central allows
45.3
7.7
2.6
44.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 46.5%#308 | 60.4%#205 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 44.4%#222 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 18.8%#292 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 24.4%#309 | 31.5%#159 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineNC Central
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#236 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#242
Def reb %
72.5%
#118
Turnover %
19.7%
#233
Forced TO %
16.9%
#210
FT rate
27.2%
#289
FT allowed
36.4%
#179
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed+0.4
VMI
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#94 of 365
Off reb %
38.5%
#62
Def reb %
72.6%
#114
Turnover %
24.1%
#327
Forced TO %
18.3%
#162
FT rate
49.6%
#57
FT allowed
25.6%
#55
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−4.2
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+3.2
Foul shots allowed+3.2
VMI has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#94 of 365) to NC Central’s −3.7 (#236).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notNC Central2026-27 numbers · last game: Longwood, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 36.5 | 35 | — | Started last | 13.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 43.1% | 35.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 25.2% | |
| 6 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 35.0 | 32 | — | Started last | 10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 35.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 22.0% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 28.5 | 30 | — | Started last | 14.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 56.3% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 71.4% | 30.1% | |
| 3 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 2-2 | 24.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 11.5% | |
| 12 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-1 | 24.0 | 23 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 26.9% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-1 | 15.0 | 11 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 22.7% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 30.2% | |
| 13 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 12.5 | 12 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 16.1% | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 9 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 24.2% | |
| 0 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 7.5 | 7 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.8% | |
| 9 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 4.5 | 3 | — | Bench | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 37.2% | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'3" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesNC Central
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
0-0
Road
2-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +15.8
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −8.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Longwood | A | L 75–80 OT | +12.5 | W+7.5 | 148.5 | O155 | 101.3 | 108.1 | 74.0 |
| Nov 2 | Georgia | A | L 62–78 | +40.0 | W+24.0 | 163.5 | U140 | 84.4 | 106.1 | 73.5 |
| Mar 14 | Howard | N | L 63–70 | +11.5 | W+4.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 101.2 | 112.4 | 62.3 |
| Mar 13 | Delaware St | N | W 59–53 | −4.0 | W+2.0 | 131.0 | U112 | 104.5 | 93.9 | 56.4 |
| Mar 12 | MD Eastern | N | W 83–76 OT | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 132.0 | O159 | 119.6 | 109.5 | 69.4 |
| Mar 5 | SC State | H | L 64–80 | −7.5 | L−23.5 | 141.5 | O144 | 91.7 | 114.6 | 69.8 |
| Mar 2 | MD Eastern | A | W 77–73 | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 133.5 | O150 | 112.8 | 106.9 | 68.3 |
| Feb 28 | Delaware St | A | W 74–60 | −2.5 | W+11.5 | 135.5 | U134 | 120.3 | 97.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb 21 | Howard | A | L 67–100 | +12.5 | L−20.5 | 143.0 | O167 | 94.0 | 140.3 | 71.3 |
| Feb 18 | SC State | A | L 72–85 | −3.0 | L−16.0 | 137.5 | O157 | 107.9 | 127.4 | 66.7 |
VMI
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −10.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | UTSA | A | L 68–70 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 163.5 | U138 | 97.8 | 100.7 | 69.5 |
| Nov 5 | SMU | A | L 70–95 | +24.5 | L−0.5 | 160.5 | O165 | 83.5 | 113.3 | 83.8 |
| Nov 2 | Virginia Lynchburg Dragons | H | W 115–83 | — | — | — | — | 129.6 | 93.5 | 88.7 |
| Mar 6 | UNC Greensboro | N | L 70–84 | +6.5 | L−7.5 | 156.0 | U154 | 103.8 | 124.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 28 | Chattanooga | A | L 79–86 | +11.5 | W+4.5 | 155.0 | O165 | 124.6 | 135.7 | 63.4 |
| Feb 26 | Samford | A | L 61–80 | +17.0 | L−2.0 | 156.0 | U141 | 93.0 | 122.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | W Carolina | H | L 62–81 | +9.0 | L−10.0 | 155.0 | U143 | 98.2 | 128.3 | 63.2 |
| Feb 18 | Wofford | A | L 76–82 | +13.5 | W+7.5 | 158.5 | U158 | 110.3 | 119.0 | 68.9 |
| Feb 14 | Furman | H | L 72–90 | +12.0 | L−6.0 | 146.5 | O162 | 101.4 | 126.8 | 71.0 |
| Feb 11 | UNC Greensboro | A | L 71–92 | +8.5 | L−12.5 | 151.0 | O163 | 102.7 | 133.0 | 69.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNC CentralVMI
Efficiency
99.5
97.3
110.2
113.2
69.1
72.2
2.9
-3.5
Shooting
45.2%
38.2%
44.4%
39.2%
31.4%
24.4%
70.6%
79.7%
27.2%
49.6%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
24.1%
16.9%
18.3%
28.4%
38.5%
27.5%
27.4%
12.9%
13.0%
8.9%
16.2%
Style
28.0%
37.8%
51.1%
39.1%
12.4%
11.6%
43.1%
47.5%
31.0%
44.0%
Roster
3.44
2.17
6'6.6"
6'5.7"
3.1%
45.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNC Central
Returning minutes: 3.1%Returning production: 2.1%
Lost
- Gage Lattimore 35.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · transferred to James Madison
- Dionte Johnson 30.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kelechi Okworogwo 25.6 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tekao Carpenter 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyric Davis 21.8 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jae Slack 19.4 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Isaiah Buckley new to D1 · 40.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Christian Meeks from Morgan St · 28.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Trey Brown from MD Eastern · 11.6 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
- Tyler Mason from Alabama St · 8.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
- Maurice Vassel from MD Eastern · 5.9 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Daniel Mbaeteka new to D1 · 5.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
Returns 3% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
VMI
Returning minutes: 45.8%Returning production: 50.5%
Lost
- Tan Yildizoglu 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Siena
- Linus Holmstrom 26.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Youngstown St
- Mario Tatum Jr. 25.1 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to NJIT
- Kaden Stuckey 16.3 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Le Moyne
- Jaylen Pazon 8.4 mpg, 4.2 ppg · transferred to Chicago St
- Mason Hagedorn 2.0 mpg, 0.4 ppg · transferred to Loyola MD
Added
- Trap Johnson from UC San Diego · 6.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Dionysis Exarchopoulos no D1 minutes last season
- Cazell Henderson-Bradley no D1 minutes last season
- Rickey Bradley Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Paulius Narvilas no D1 minutes last season
- Joao Panzo no D1 minutes last season
Returns 46% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.5-110 | 150.5o-105 u-115 | -265 | +215 |
| FanDuel | -4.5→-5.5-120 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | -255 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6.5-110 | 150.5o-105 u-115 | -250 | +200 |
| Caesars | -6.5-110 | 150.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -5.5→-6.5-105 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | -260 | +210 |
| BetOnline | -6.5-110 | 150o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -6.5-110 | 150.5o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 151.5o-108 u-108 | -233 | +212 |
| Polymarket | -5.5-133 | 151.5o-117 u-122 | -257 | +203 |
| Novig | -6.5-122 | 151.5o-108 u+100 | -270 | +203 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 11
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- NJIT at VCU · 7:00 PM ET
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.