Robert Morris Colonials vs Arkansas Razorbacks basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET · Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
Non-conferenceSECN+Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
Robert Morris
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #256
@
19Arkansas
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #36
Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ET
65.789.8
Projected score
RMU win 2%ARK win 98%
Consensus
Spread
ARK −30.5
open ARK −29.5
Total
155.5
open 155.5
Our line
ARK −24.1
ML Robert Morris
+5000
Median of 8 books · as of Tue, Nov 10 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Arkansasrated 20.2 above average
+20.2
Robert Morrisrated 0.3 above average
−0.3
Home court
+4.2
Our line
ARK −24.1
◂ Robert Morris sideArkansas side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Arkansas. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Arkansas is the faster team (73.0, #110 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (68.5, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Market total
155.5
Consensus · open 155.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#292
Robert Morris
72.1#90
Arkansas
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ARK −24.1
Four factors +27.6 · not in these stats −3.5
From the four factors
Arkansas has the ball+13.9
Robert Morris has the ball−13.7
Arkansas has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 45.1% #16 · RMU allows 42.3% #328+6.3
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.7% #95 · RMU allows 54.3% #242+5.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.8% #173 · RMU forces 14.6% #284 · ~11 turnovers+2.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 48.8% #63 · RMU allows 34.4% #156 · FT 68.3% #209+0.2
Robert Morris has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 28.5% #351 · ARK forces 22.6% #61 · ~19 turnovers−7.5
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 38.7% #338 · ARK allows 50.4% #181−6.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 37.1% #171 · ARK allows 31.7% #123 · FT 83.3% #21+0.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.3% #257 · ARK allows 37.3% #285−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootRobert Morrisoffense vs#19Arkansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Robert Morris shoots
32.4
5.9
14.7
47.1
Arkansas allows
36.8
11.5
10.3
41.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.5%#229 | 62.5%#229 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 20.0%#54 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.2%#278 | 34.0%#207 | 32.5% |
#19Arkansasoffense vsRobert Morrisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas shoots
41.0
7.2
20.5
31.3
Robert Morris allows
51.1
8.9
8.9
31.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.8%#170 | 63.0%#242 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#29 | 25.0%#76 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 23.5%#266 | 25.0%#85 | 34.7% |
| Three | 35.1%#125 | 36.2%#264 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineRobert Morris
−13.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365
Off reb %
27.3%
#257
Def reb %
57.7%
#328
Turnover %
28.5%
#351
Forced TO %
14.6%
#284
FT rate
37.1%
#171
FT allowed
34.4%
#156
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−3.5
Ball security−7.3
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.9
#19Arkansas
+10.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365
Off reb %
45.1%
#16
Def reb %
62.7%
#285
Turnover %
17.8%
#173
Forced TO %
22.6%
#61
FT rate
48.8%
#63
FT allowed
31.7%
#123
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.5
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers+3.2
Foul shots drawn+3.0
Foul shots allowed+1.6
Arkansas has more extra scoring chances per game: +10.7 (#50 of 365) to Robert Morris’s −13.8 (#336).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notRobert Morris2026-27 numbers · last game: UIC, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 30.5 | 37 | — | Started last | 4.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 28.6% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 33.3% | 25.7% | |
| 12 | G | So | 6'2" | 2-1 | 28.5 | 29 | — | Bench | 6.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 33.3% | 25.0% | 8.0 | 50.0% | 22.8% | |
| 22 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-2 | 27.0 | 23 | — | Started last | 13.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43.8% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-1 | 25.0 | 31 | — | Started last | 5.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 57.1% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 11.7% | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 25.0 | 24 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 14.2% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-1 | 24.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 30.0% | 14.3% | 3.5 | 75.0% | 28.1% | |
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 21.0 | 25 | — | Started last | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 23.9% | |
| 11 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 1-1 | 18.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 32.6% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 4 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 25.9% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 29.4% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesRobert Morris
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −18.2
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −8.2
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | UIC | A | L 56–79 | +10.5 | L−12.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 79.9 | 112.7 | 70.1 |
| Nov 2 | Nevada | A | L 49–86 | +13.0 | L−24.0 | 144.5 | U135 | 73.2 | 128.5 | 66.9 |
| Mar 9 | Detroit Mercy | N | L 64–70 | −4.0 | L−10.0 | 146.5 | U134 | 101.5 | 111.1 | 63.0 |
| Mar 4 | Youngstown St | H | W 68–53 | −4.0 | W+11.0 | 143.5 | U121 | 109.0 | 84.9 | 62.4 |
| Feb 28 | Cleveland St | H | W 83–64 | −12.5 | W+6.5 | 157.5 | U147 | 129.8 | 100.1 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Detroit Mercy | H | W 73–62 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 150.5 | U135 | 114.8 | 97.5 | 63.6 |
| Feb 22 | Wright St | A | W 81–68 | +4.0 | W+17.0 | 146.5 | O149 | 119.9 | 100.6 | 67.6 |
| Feb 15 | Oakland | H | W 93–69 | −1.5 | W+22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 140.7 | 104.4 | 66.1 |
| Feb 12 | Cleveland St | A | W 85–68 | −4.0 | W+13.0 | 154.0 | U153 | 135.3 | 108.3 | 62.8 |
| Feb 7 | Youngstown St | A | W 72–66 | +3.5 | W+9.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 111.5 | 102.2 | 64.6 |
#19Arkansas
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover −6.2
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +0.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | #9Virginia | N | L 72–91 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 162.0 | O163 | 105.8 | 133.8 | 68.0 |
| Nov 3 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | W 106–61 | −42.0 | W+3.0 | 166.5 | O167 | 135.9 | 78.2 | 78.0 |
| Mar 26 | #1Arizona | N | L 88–109 | +8.0 | L−13.0 | 165.5 | O197 | 110.1 | 136.4 | 79.9 |
| Mar 21 | #12High Point | N | W 94–88 | −12.0 | L−6.0 | 170.5 | O182 | 121.5 | 113.8 | 77.4 |
| Mar 19 | #13Hawai'i | N | W 97–78 | −15.0 | W+4.0 | 158.0 | O175 | 126.5 | 101.8 | 76.7 |
| Mar 15 | #22Vanderbilt | N | W 86–75 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | U161 | 122.6 | 107.0 | 70.1 |
| Mar 14 | Ole Miss | N | W 93–90 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 158.5 | O183 | 119.7 | 115.8 | 77.7 |
| Mar 13 | Oklahoma | N | W 82–79 | −6.0 | L−3.0 | 167.0 | U161 | 117.2 | 112.9 | 70.0 |
| Mar 7 | Missouri | A | W 88–84 OT | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 161.5 | O172 | 115.1 | 109.9 | 76.4 |
| Mar 4 | Texas | H | W 105–85 | −7.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | O190 | 132.8 | 107.5 | 79.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeRobert Morris#19Arkansas
Efficiency
101.7
118.4
107.7
103.4
68.9
72.1
9.4
1.7
Shooting
38.7%
55.7%
38.2%
57.0%
26.2%
35.1%
83.3%
68.3%
37.1%
48.8%
Ball control & glass
28.5%
17.8%
14.6%
22.6%
27.3%
45.1%
42.3%
37.3%
15.3%
11.6%
12.7%
8.1%
Style
43.3%
30.1%
34.3%
51.7%
1.9%
32.6%
68.8%
46.8%
35.3%
42.0%
Roster
2.63
1.80
6'5.2"
6'6.6"
24.1%
13.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputRobert Morris
Returning minutes: 24.1%Returning production: 18.2%
Lost
- Ryan Prather Jr. 34.0 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Nikos Chitikoudis 25.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Xavier
- Albert Vargas 20.5 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kaleb Brown 19.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Josh Hill 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to Oakland
Added
- Ace Valentine from UMBC · 31.7 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
- Jalik Dunkley from Nicholls · 25.9 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
- KC Ugwuakazi from Merrimack · 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
- KJ Garris Jr. from Fullerton · 13.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
- Dylan Donovan no D1 minutes last season
- Bolaji Oderinlo no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#19Arkansas
Returning minutes: 15.7%Returning production: 15.1%
Lost
- Darius Acuff Jr. 34.3 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trevon Brazile 30.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Meleek Thomas 30.5 mpg, 15.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- DJ Wagner 22.3 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Maryland
- Malique Ewin 21.0 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Pringle 17.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jeremiah Wilkinson from Georgia · 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
- Cooper Bowser from Furman · 21.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Davion Thompson no D1 minutes last season
- Abdou Toure no D1 minutes last season
- Jordan Smith Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Caleb Ourigou no D1 minutes last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -29.5→-30.5-110 | 156.5→155.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -29.5-114 | 154.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -30.5-105 | 155.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -29.5→-30.5-110 | 155.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -30→-29.5-115 | 155.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -29.5→-30.5-110 | 154.5→155.5o-118 u-102 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30.5-110 | 155.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -29.5→-30.5-110 | 155.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 154.5→156.5o-127 u-138 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -29.5-122 | 154.5o-122 u-113 | — | +326 |
| Novig | — | 155.5o-122 u-122 | — | +3348 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.