Old Dominion Monarchs vs Norfolk State Spartans basketball prediction & odds
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET · Joseph G. Echols Hall, Norfolk, VA
Non-conferenceJoseph G. Echols Hall, Norfolk, VA
Old Dominion
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #147
@
Norfolk St
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #314
Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET
72.575.4
Projected score
ODU win 40%NORF win 60%
No line posted yet.
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Norfolk Strated 7.7 below average
−7.7
Old Dominionrated 6.3 below average
+6.3
Home court
+4.2
Our line
NORF −2.8
◂ Old Dominion sideNorfolk St side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.5
Norfolk Stlower-scoring games
−1.6
Old Dominionlower-scoring games
−2.0
Our line
147.9
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Norfolk St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Norfolk St is the faster team (72.8, #116 of 365) and Old Dominion the slower (62.5, #350). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.1#322
Old Dominion
70.6#178
Norfolk St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
NORF −2.8
Four factors −24.8 · not in these stats +27.6
From the four factors
Norfolk St has the ball−8.4
Old Dominion has the ball+16.4
Norfolk St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.6% #295 · ODU allows 43.6% #59−7.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.4% #290 · ODU allows 22.4% #34−3.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.0% #13 · ODU forces 19.2% #131 · ~10 turnovers+2.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 47.5% #68 · ODU allows 30.4% #106 · FT 72.4% #139+0.2
Old Dominion has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.7% #57 · NORF allows 67.5% #351+12.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.3% #83 · NORF allows 44.1% #339+4.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 21.8% #333 · NORF allows 42.9% #240 · FT 66.7% #229−0.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 20.0% #251 · NORF forces 16.5% #228 · ~12 turnovers+0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootOld Dominionoffense vsNorfolk Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Old Dominion shoots
39.0
6.0
12.0
43.0
Norfolk St allows
43.5
6.5
2.2
47.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.4%#202 | 70.0%#303 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 45.7%#14 | 44.1%#334 | 32.5% |
Norfolk Stoffense vsOld Dominiondefense
Share of shots by zone
Norfolk St shoots
31.7
14.6
14.6
39.0
Old Dominion allows
30.9
4.3
23.4
41.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.8%#235 | 51.7%#96 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 25.0%#76 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#298 | 22.7%#75 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.3%#158 | 34.1%#210 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineOld Dominion
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365
Off reb %
37.3%
#83
Def reb %
77.6%
#34
Turnover %
20.0%
#251
Forced TO %
19.2%
#131
FT rate
21.8%
#333
FT allowed
30.4%
#106
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+3.1
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−4.1
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Norfolk St
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365
Off reb %
24.4%
#290
Def reb %
55.9%
#339
Turnover %
11.0%
#13
Forced TO %
16.5%
#228
FT rate
47.5%
#68
FT allowed
42.9%
#240
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.4
Defensive rebounding−4.2
Ball security+5.1
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed−1.3
Old Dominion has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#140 of 365) to Norfolk St’s −1.1 (#194).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notOld Dominion2026-27 numbers · last game: Bucknell, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 29.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 13.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 57.7% | 22.2% | 3.0 | 83.3% | 25.4% | |
| 13 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 22.7 | 26 | — | Bench | 10.7 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 5.0 | — | 16.3% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 3-3 | 21.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 57.4% | 43.8% | 5.3 | — | 27.8% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 19.7 | 20 | — | Bench | 5.3 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 57.7% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 17.1% | |
| 6 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 18.7 | 22 | — | Started last | 7.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 44.4% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 85.7% | 28.2% | |
| 4 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 16.0 | 24 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 16.3% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 15.3 | 18 | — | Started last | 3.0 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 14.3 | 15 | — | Started last | 5.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 19.2% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 11.7 | 5 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 56.7% | 45.5% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 32.2% | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 7 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 25.6% | |
| 12 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 10.5 | — | — | Missed last | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 33.4% | |
| 34 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 8.5 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 30.7% | |
| 20 | F | Jr | 7'0" | 1-0 | 10.0 | — | — | Missed last | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 15 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 26.3% | |
| 11 | G | Sr | 5'10" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 26.0% | |
| 9 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 26.3% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesOld Dominion
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +13.8
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −21.2
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Bucknell | A | W 82–62 | −6.0 | W+14.0 | 141.0 | O144 | 127.5 | 96.4 | 64.3 |
| Nov 4 | Regent Regent Royals | H | W 91–47 | — | — | — | — | 119.7 | 61.8 | 76.1 |
| Nov 2 | W Michigan | H | W 61–49 | +1.5 | W+13.5 | 155.5 | U110 | 100.5 | 80.7 | 60.7 |
| Mar 4 | GA Southern | N | L 84–88 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 157.5 | O172 | 121.6 | 127.4 | 69.1 |
| Mar 3 | UL Monroe | N | W 87–80 | −10.5 | L−3.5 | 157.5 | O167 | 124.6 | 114.6 | 69.8 |
| Feb 27 | Georgia St | A | W 81–73 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 149.5 | O154 | 109.9 | 99.1 | 73.7 |
| Feb 24 | Marshall | A | L 88–97 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 160.5 | O185 | 122.0 | 134.5 | 72.1 |
| Feb 21 | Southern Miss | A | L 81–86 | +5.0 | P0.0 | 148.0 | O167 | 100.0 | 106.1 | 81.0 |
| Feb 16 | Louisiana | H | W 83–72 | −5.5 | W+5.5 | 136.0 | O155 | 124.6 | 108.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Georgia St | H | W 78–55 | −4.0 | W+19.0 | 147.0 | U133 | 120.8 | 85.2 | 64.6 |
Norfolk St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −20.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +19.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | William & Mary | A | L 73–104 | +11.0 | L−20.0 | 157.5 | O177 | 100.3 | 142.9 | 72.8 |
| Nov 4 | Randolph Wildcats | H | W 78–71 | — | — | — | — | 103.4 | 94.2 | 75.4 |
| Nov 2 | Regent Regent Royals | H | W 68–45 | — | — | — | — | 106.2 | 70.3 | 64.0 |
| Mar 12 | SC State | N | L 82–88 | −8.5 | L−14.5 | 144.5 | O170 | 108.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | Howard | H | L 76–84 | +6.5 | L−1.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 109.8 | 121.4 | 69.2 |
| Mar 2 | Morgan St | A | L 84–90 | −3.5 | L−9.5 | 157.0 | O174 | 111.4 | 119.4 | 75.4 |
| Feb 28 | Coppin St | A | W 75–69 | −8.0 | L−2.0 | 141.5 | O144 | 113.6 | 104.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 21 | SC State | H | W 90–71 | −10.0 | W+9.0 | 140.5 | O161 | 126.1 | 99.5 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | MD Eastern | A | W 70–66 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | U136 | 118.5 | 111.7 | 59.1 |
| Feb 14 | Delaware St | H | W 75–58 | −9.0 | W+8.0 | 134.0 | U133 | 119.1 | 92.1 | 63.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOld DominionNorfolk St
Efficiency
105.3
101.7
104.2
112.8
68.1
70.6
-10.5
5.7
Shooting
57.7%
42.6%
50.0%
37.8%
45.7%
33.3%
66.7%
72.4%
21.8%
47.5%
Ball control & glass
20.0%
11.0%
19.2%
16.5%
37.3%
24.4%
22.4%
44.1%
14.4%
5.5%
6.3%
8.1%
Style
41.8%
39.3%
40.6%
32.9%
7.0%
16.4%
58.5%
72.7%
50.3%
38.4%
Roster
3.27
2.31
6'5.4"
6'5"
29.0%
0.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOld Dominion
Returning minutes: 29.0%Returning production: 24.2%
Lost
- Jordan Battle 32.8 mpg, 15.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- KC Shaw 27.4 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- LJ Thomas 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Robert Davis Jr. 23.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Troy
- Caelum Swanton-Rodger 19.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Drew McKenna 8.7 mpg, 3.1 ppg · transferred to New Hampshire
Added
- Zamoku Weluche-Ume from NC A&T · 29.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Bubu Benjamin from G Washington · 17.5 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
- Kylan Howze from Louisiana Tech · 7.9 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Theo Gerges no D1 minutes last season
- Cj Harper no D1 minutes last season
- CJ Lyons no D1 minutes last season
Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Norfolk St
Returning minutes: 7.0%Returning production: 5.2%
Lost
- Anthony McComb III 34.2 mpg, 17.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Jamison 27.4 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devon Ellis 27.3 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jordan Leaks 23.5 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keyontae Lewis 17.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- My'kel Jenkins 15.9 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jahki Gupton from Saint Peter's · 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
- Bahsil Laster from UT Arlington · 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg last season
- Brandon Gardner from Sacramento St · 8.0 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season
- J.C. Riley Jr. from N'Western St · 7.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
- Miles Mitchell no D1 minutes last season
- Jamese Jordan no D1 minutes last season
Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 11 | 2025-26 | Norfolk St 57 – 60 Old Dominion |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.