New Mexico State Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs basketball final score
Sat, Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET · McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA
Non-conferenceMcCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA
New Mexico St
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-13 conf
Efficiency #167
@
15Gonzaga
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #11
Final
68109
Final score
Projected 59.8 – 88.7
NMSU win 1%GONZ win 99%
MarketClose
Spread
GONZ −29.0
open GONZ −27.5
Total
152.0
open 148.5
Our line
GONZ −28.9
as of Sat, Nov 7 · 4:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Gonzagarated 24.3 above average
+24.3
New Mexico Strated 0.3 below average
+0.3
Home court
+4.3
Our line
GONZ −28.9
◂ New Mexico St sideGonzaga side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Gonzaga. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Gonzaga is the faster team (68.6, #230 of 365) and New Mexico St the slower (67.3, #233). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.2
per team, 40 min
Market total
152.0
Market close · open 148.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#234
New Mexico St
71.7#112
Gonzaga
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
GONZ −28.9
Four factors 1.3Not in these stats 27.6
From the four factors
Gonzaga has the ball+3.5
New Mexico St has the ball+2.2
Gonzaga has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.6% #72 · NMSU forces 14.7% #313 · ~10 turnovers+3.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 64.2% #8 · NMSU allows 44.2% #346 · FT 76.5% #78+2.0
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 49.1% #184 · NMSU allows 48.7% #52−1.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.4% #197 · NMSU allows 30.3% #175−0.9
New Mexico St has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.0% #68 · GONZ forces 14.6% #257 · ~10 turnovers+3.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.5% #105 · GONZ allows 22.6% #35−1.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 34.9% #186 · GONZ allows 38.2% #181 · FT 73.5% #153+0.2
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 48.5% #302 · GONZ allows 51.8% #187−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootNew Mexico Stoffense vs#15Gonzagadefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico St shoots
32.3
7.7
20.9
39.1
Gonzaga allows
20.0
14.5
27.3
38.2
D-I average
37.9
7.9
12.7
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.0%#272 | 63.6%#213 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.5%#165 | 50.0%#214 | 37.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.6%#127 | 66.7%#302 | 35.4% |
| Three | 32.4%#257 | 23.8%#49 | 32.3% |
#15Gonzagaoffense vsNew Mexico Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Gonzaga shoots
37.7
13.2
18.9
30.2
New Mexico St allows
36.4
9.5
13.0
41.1
D-I average
37.9
7.9
12.7
41.5
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 70.0%#53 | 58.8%#180 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 14.3%#259 | 37.1%#113 | 37.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#246 | 27.5%#2 | 35.4% |
| Three | 37.5%#87 | 32.4%#83 | 32.3% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineNew Mexico St
−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#262 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#105
Def reb %
69.7%
#175
Turnover %
15.0%
#68
Forced TO %
14.7%
#313
FT rate
34.9%
#186
FT allowed
44.2%
#346
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−2.3
#15Gonzaga
+9.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#66 of 365
Off reb %
29.4%
#197
Def reb %
77.4%
#35
Turnover %
14.6%
#72
Forced TO %
14.6%
#257
FT rate
64.2%
#8
FT allowed
38.2%
#181
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+3.1
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+7.1
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Gonzaga has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.4 (#66 of 365) to New Mexico St’s −1.7 (#262).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
New Mexico St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 33.5 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 77.8% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 11.2% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 28.5 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 59.1% | 50.0% | 6.0 | 85.7% | 28.9% | |
| 32 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 43.8% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 88.2% | 36.3% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 12.0% | |
| 13 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 75.0% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 18.6% | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 31.8% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 43.3% | |
| 30 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 2.1% | |
| 15 | C | Sr | 7'0" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 19.9% | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'9" | 2-2 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42.9% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 25.1% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 20.3% | |
| 21 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 75.0% | 47.7% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 38.4% | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 57.6% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameNew Mexico St
Against the spread
Season
14-15
Home
6-6
Road
5-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-12
Home
7-5
Road
8-3
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +4.7
Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | Western New Mexico Mustangs | H | W 73–66 | — | — | — | — | 105.0 | 94.9 | 69.5 |
| Mar 11 | Sam Houston | N | L 61–69 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 85.3 | 96.5 | 71.5 |
| Mar 10 | Jax State | N | W 68–63 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 105.9 | 98.1 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | Kennesaw St | H | W 79–76 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 116.9 | 112.5 | 67.6 |
| Mar 5 | Jax State | H | W 77–75 OT | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 101.5 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | MTSU | A | L 85–86 OT | +5.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | O171 | 113.0 | 114.3 | 75.2 |
| Feb 26 | Western KY | A | L 70–93 | +5.5 | L−17.5 | 151.5 | O163 | 88.7 | 117.8 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | UTEP | H | W 67–63 | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 143.0 | U130 | 115.0 | 108.2 | 58.3 |
| Feb 14 | Jax State | A | W 79–70 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 119.9 | 106.3 | 65.9 |
| Feb 11 | Liberty | H | L 75–77 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 111.4 | 114.4 | 67.3 |
#15Gonzaga
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +1.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −3.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Purdue | N | W 78–72 | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 153.5 | U150 | 113.8 | 105.0 | 68.6 |
| Mar 21 | #11Texas | N | L 68–74 | −6.0 | L−12.0 | 147.5 | U142 | 106.3 | 115.6 | 64.0 |
| Mar 19 | #14Kennesaw St | N | W 73–64 | −20.5 | L−11.5 | 151.5 | U137 | 105.6 | 92.6 | 69.1 |
| Mar 10 | Santa Clara | N | W 79–68 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 156.5 | U147 | 130.9 | 112.7 | 60.4 |
| Mar 9 | Oregon St | N | W 65–56 | −20.5 | L−11.5 | 145.0 | U121 | 102.9 | 88.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 28 | Saint Mary's | A | L 59–70 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 143.0 | U129 | 92.2 | 109.4 | 64.0 |
| Feb 25 | Portland | H | W 89–48 | −27.0 | W+14.0 | 150.0 | U137 | 131.9 | 71.2 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Pacific | H | W 71–62 | −21.5 | L−12.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 116.0 | 101.3 | 61.2 |
| Feb 18 | San Francisco | A | W 80–59 | −15.5 | W+5.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 119.2 | 87.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 14 | Santa Clara | A | W 94–86 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 158.5 | O180 | 123.1 | 112.6 | 76.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNew Mexico St#15Gonzaga
Efficiency
106.0
114.4
106.1
94.3
70.2
71.7
—
15.0
Shooting
48.5%
49.1%
48.5%
45.9%
32.4%
37.5%
73.5%
76.5%
34.9%
64.2%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
14.6%
14.7%
14.6%
32.5%
29.4%
30.3%
22.6%
9.0%
7.3%
8.1%
5.4%
Style
38.7%
30.2%
38.3%
35.9%
15.2%
17.9%
49.3%
65.2%
37.6%
29.4%
Roster
3.21
3.09
6'5.1"
6'7"
21.5%
13.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNew Mexico St
Returning minutes: 21.5%Returning production: 16.7%
Lost
- Jemel Jones 28.4 mpg, 17.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Julius Mims 26.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anthony Wrzeszcz 24.6 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayland Randall 19.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Elliott 18.1 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Terrell 12.4 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gabe Warren from Holy Cross · 31.6 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
- DJ Dudley from Louisiana Tech · 30.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
- Jermaine Washington from San José St · 26.3 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
- Mark Lavrenov from Sacramento St · 26.0 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Stephon Payne from Seton Hall · 20.2 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Leopold Levillain from Long Beach St · 18.1 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#15Gonzaga
Returning minutes: 13.7%Returning production: 18.5%
Lost
- Graham Ike 27.7 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Emmanuel Innocenti 24.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Arizona St
- Mario Saint-Supery 23.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyon Grant-Foster 21.5 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Warley 20.7 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Adam Miller 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Javon Bennett from Dayton · 34.5 mpg, 15.8 ppg last season
- Massamba Diop from Arizona St · 29.7 mpg, 13.6 ppg last season
- Xaivian Lee from Florida · 27.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
- Chauncey Wiggins from Florida St · 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg last season
- Isiah Harwell from Houston · 11.9 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Izan Almansa no D1 minutes last season
Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -27.5→-29.5-110 | 148.5→151.5o-112 u-108 | — | +3500 |
| FanDuel | -24.5→-29.5-110 | 153.5→152.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5→-29.5-110 | 149.5→151.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -27.5→-29.5-106 | 152.5o-107 u-115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -28.5→-29.5-110 | 149.5→152o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -25.5→-29.5-105 | 151→151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -26→-28.5-125 | 148.5→151.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28.5→-29-115 | 150.5→152o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -26.5→-29.5-110 | 148.5→152.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -27.5→-29.5-105 | 152.5→151.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 151.5o-104 u+100 | — | +4900 |
| Polymarket | -29.5+104 | 153.5→152.5o+108 u-113 | — | — |
| Novig | — | 148.5→151.5o-104 u+100 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 7
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.