CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteMohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CTBasketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off
Nebraska
Efficiency #17
2025-26: 28-7 · 15-6 conf
vs
Providence
Efficiency #81
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-14 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
81.2
win 73%
Projected
74.1
win 27%
No line posted yet.
Model: NEB −7.2 · total 155.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Providence 70.9, Nebraska 67.7 → 70.4 possessions
+4.4
Providence offense vs Nebraska defense
−2.3
Nebraska offense vs Providence defense
+4.9
Projected total
155.3
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Providence offense vs Nebraska defense
−2.3
Nebraska offense vs Providence defense
−4.9
Nebraska by 7.2
7.2
Nebraska side ◂▸ Providence side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.2 against a projected 155.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Providence.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Providence is the faster team (72.3, #21 of 365) and Nebraska the slower (66.8, #252). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.3
model
Projected team totals
81.2 / 74.1
Nebraska / Providence
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#228
Nebraska
70.9#18
Providence
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNebraska
Where Nebraska scores: ball control
Nebraska turns it over on 14.4% of possessions (#40); Providence forces turnovers on 13.1% of opponent possessions (#352). Expect about 13.1%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Providence averages 72.3 possessions per 40, Nebraska 66.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Providence, Nebraska's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Nebraska at about 48.2% of its shots from three, Providence about 47.2%.
AdvantageProvidence
Where Providence struggles: ball control
Providence turns it over on 16.7% of possessions (#174); Nebraska forces turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (#54). Expect about 18.1%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashProvidence
Style clash: ball movement
Providence creates off the dribble (assists on 47.5% of its baskets); Nebraska allows assists on 61.1% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 54.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashProvidence
Strength vs strength: eFG%
Providence (#37 in eFG%) against Nebraska (#40 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.8%. Historically Providence's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
Nebraska has the ball
OffenseProvidence allowsvs D1 avg
55.5% #28
51.4% #179
+3.6 pt/100
14.4% #40
13.1% #352
+4.5 pt/100
26.7% #306
30.8% #195
-1.5 pt/100
26.2% #356
32.7% #125
-0.7 pt/100
75.5% #64
—
+0.3 pt/100
Nebraska net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.2 pts/100
Providence has the ball
OffenseNebraska allowsvs D1 avg
55.0% #37
48.1% #40
+0.7 pt/100
16.7% #174
18.9% #54
-1.6 pt/100
31.7% #135
27.4% #47
-0.3 pt/100
36.7% #138
25.1% #7
-0.6 pt/100
75.7% #60
—
+0.3 pt/100
Providence net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNebraskaoffense vsProvidencedefense
Share of shots by zone
Nebraska shoots
31.8
5.5
11.3
51.3
Providence allows
37.3
6.1
18.4
38.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.2%#4 | 57.2%#121 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.6%#253 | 46.7%#329 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.1%#288 | 37.9%#154 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.5%#91 | 35.3%#265 | 33.7% |
Providenceoffense vsNebraskadefense
Share of shots by zone
Providence shoots
40.7
4.6
14.1
40.5
Nebraska allows
23.8
5.7
19.3
51.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.2%#88 | 64.2%#342 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.7%#156 | 40.6%#202 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.2%#107 | 35.0%#76 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.4%#45 | 30.5%#19 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNebraska
+3.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#49 of 365
Off reb %
26.7%
#306
Def reb %
72.6%
#47
Turnover %
14.4%
#40
Forced TO %
18.9%
#54
FT rate
26.2%
#356
FT allowed
25.1%
#7
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.3
Foul shots allowed+2.6
Providence
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#228 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#135
Def reb %
69.2%
#195
Turnover %
16.7%
#174
Forced TO %
13.1%
#352
FT rate
36.7%
#138
FT allowed
32.7%
#125
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers−2.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Nebraska has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.3 (#49 of 365) to Providence’s −0.9 (#228).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Nebraska2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pryce Sandfort | F | Jr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 33.6 | 18.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 62.1% | 41.6% | 8.9 | 85.5% | 26.5% | |
| 10 | Jamarques Lawrence | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 27.9 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 52.2% | 35.5% | 4.4 | 75.6% | 23.2% | |
| 9 | Berke Buyuktuncel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 33-33 | 24.3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 50.6% | 24.1% | 1.6 | 61.2% | 18.3% | |
| 5 | Braden Frager | F | Fr | 6'7" | 33-2 | 23.7 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 59.1% | 35.2% | 4.9 | 80.5% | 26.8% | |
| 31 | Cale Jacobsen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-1 | 19.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 58.5% | 36.6% | 1.2 | 59.5% | 13.9% | |
| 15 | Jared Garcia | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 39.2% | 24.4% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 28.7% | |
| 0 | Connor Essegian | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 13.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 40.9% | 25.8% | 4.4 | 50.0% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | Kendall Blue | G | Sr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 37.5% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.6% | |
| 33 | Leo Curtis | F | Fr | 7'1" | 15-0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 87.5% | 24.0% | |
| 7 | Justin Bolis | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 13.9% | |
| 13 | Ugnius Jarusevicius | F | Sr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 116.7% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | |
| 35 | Henry Burt | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Quentin Rhymes | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Will Cooper | F | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Providence2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stefan Vaaks | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-22 | 31.5 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 52.2% | 35.0% | 8.4 | 83.9% | 27.9% | |
| 11 | Ryan Mela | G | So | 6'7" | 33-22 | 25.9 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 53.9% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 80.5% | 21.6% | |
| 55 | Oswin Erhunmwunse | F | So | 6'10" | 33-31 | 25.0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 67.3% | — | 0.0 | 52.5% | 15.0% | |
| 1 | Jason Edwards | G | Sr | 6'1" | 23-13 | 26.7 | 16.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 51.6% | 34.3% | 6.1 | 79.0% | 33.8% | |
| 14 | Corey Floyd Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 24-18 | 25.4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 49.3% | 37.3% | 2.1 | 79.5% | 18.5% | |
| 13 | Cole Hargrove | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-1 | 13.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 8.8% | |
| 31 | Duncan Powell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-5 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 47.7% | 30.8% | 3.0 | 60.7% | 17.6% | |
| 20 | Nilavan Daniels | G | So | 6'3" | 20-1 | 9.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 69.6% | 47.6% | 1.1 | 77.8% | 8.8% | |
| 17 | Peteris Pinnis | F | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 53.8% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 16.9% | |
| 4 | Jaylen Harrell | G | Fr | 6'5" | 6-0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 59.4% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 3 | Daquan Davis | G | So | 6'1" | 3-0 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 9.9% | |
| 8 | Jack Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.4 | — | 12.8% | |
| 10 | Rich Barron | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Nebraska2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pryce Sandfort | F | Jr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 33.6 | 18.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 62.1% | 41.6% | 8.9 | 85.5% | 26.5% | |
| 10 | Jamarques Lawrence | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 27.9 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 52.2% | 35.5% | 4.4 | 75.6% | 23.2% | |
| 9 | Berke Buyuktuncel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 33-33 | 24.3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 50.6% | 24.1% | 1.6 | 61.2% | 18.3% | |
| 5 | Braden Frager | F | Fr | 6'7" | 33-2 | 23.7 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 59.1% | 35.2% | 4.9 | 80.5% | 26.8% | |
| 31 | Cale Jacobsen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-1 | 19.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 58.5% | 36.6% | 1.2 | 59.5% | 13.9% | |
| 15 | Jared Garcia | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 39.2% | 24.4% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 28.7% | |
| 0 | Connor Essegian | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 13.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 40.9% | 25.8% | 4.4 | 50.0% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | Kendall Blue | G | Sr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 37.5% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.6% | |
| 33 | Leo Curtis | F | Fr | 7'1" | 15-0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 87.5% | 24.0% | |
| 7 | Justin Bolis | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 13.9% | |
| 13 | Ugnius Jarusevicius | F | Sr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 116.7% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | |
| 35 | Henry Burt | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Quentin Rhymes | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Will Cooper | F | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Nebraska
Against the spread
Season
19-15-1
Home
8-9-1
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
12-23
Home
4-14
Road
4-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −4.5
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | #9Iowa | N | L 71–77 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 131.0 | O148 | 117.4 | 127.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 21 | #5Vanderbilt | N | W 74–72 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U146 | 115.8 | 112.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 19 | #13Troy | N | W 76–47 | −13.0 | W+16.0 | 139.5 | U123 | 125.1 | 77.4 | 60.8 |
| Mar 13 | #18Purdue | N | L 58–74 | +4.5 | L−11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 95.9 | 122.4 | 60.5 |
| Mar 8 | Iowa | H | W 84–75 OT | −5.0 | W+4.0 | 136.5 | O159 | 112.8 | 100.7 | 74.5 |
| Mar 3 | UCLA | A | L 52–72 | −1.0 | L−21.0 | 144.5 | U124 | 85.7 | 118.7 | 60.6 |
| Feb 28 | USC | A | W 82–67 | −5.0 | W+10.0 | 148.5 | O149 | 119.1 | 97.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 25 | Maryland | H | W 74–61 | −16.5 | L−3.5 | 141.0 | U135 | 116.4 | 95.9 | 63.6 |
| Feb 21 | Penn State | H | W 87–64 | −17.5 | W+5.5 | 147.5 | O151 | 125.4 | 92.2 | 69.4 |
| Feb 17 | Iowa | A | L 52–57 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 139.5 | U109 | 86.5 | 94.8 | 60.1 |
Providence
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-7
Road
6-5-1
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
22-11
Home
11-5
Road
8-4
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −3.0
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #13St John's | A | L 72–85 | +12.0 | L−1.0 | 159.5 | U157 | 95.4 | 112.6 | 75.5 |
| Mar 11 | Butler | N | W 91–81 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 162.5 | O172 | 125.4 | 111.6 | 72.6 |
| Mar 7 | Georgetown | A | L 79–80 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 157.0 | O159 | 108.5 | 109.8 | 72.8 |
| Mar 4 | Marquette | H | L 56–78 | −4.5 | L−26.5 | 162.0 | U134 | 78.9 | 109.9 | 71.0 |
| Feb 28 | Creighton | A | W 79–76 | +4.0 | W+7.0 | 167.0 | U155 | 116.3 | 111.9 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | Xavier | H | W 94–84 | −5.5 | W+4.5 | 170.0 | O178 | 135.3 | 120.9 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | DePaul | A | W 71–68 | +3.0 | W+6.0 | 152.5 | U139 | 105.7 | 101.2 | 67.2 |
| Feb 14 | #17St John's | H | L 69–79 | +7.5 | L−2.5 | 167.0 | U148 | 91.6 | 104.9 | 75.3 |
| Feb 11 | Seton Hall | A | L 80–87 | +5.0 | L−2.0 | 150.5 | O167 | 116.8 | 127.1 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | DePaul | H | W 90–72 | −5.0 | W+13.0 | 153.5 | O162 | 125.8 | 100.6 | 71.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNebraskaProvidence
Efficiency
114.2
115.4
98.3
109.8
67.7
70.9
—
—
Shooting
55.5%
55.0%
58.0%
55.3%
35.5%
36.4%
75.5%
75.7%
26.2%
36.7%
Ball control & glass
14.4%
16.7%
18.9%
13.1%
26.7%
31.7%
27.4%
30.8%
7.6%
10.4%
9.1%
8.6%
Style
51.1%
40.5%
40.1%
43.4%
8.1%
14.3%
65.9%
47.5%
26.7%
30.8%
Roster
2.93
2.57
6'6.3"
6'6.4"
69.8%
73.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNebraska
Returning minutes: 69.8%Returning production: 67.0%
Lost
- Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Quentin Rhymes no D1 minutes last season
- Henry Burt no D1 minutes last season
- Will Cooper no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Providence
Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 69.1%
Lost
- Jaylin Sellers 30.0 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jamier Jones 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Added
- Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.