CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCapital One Arena, Washington, DC
Maryland
Efficiency #198
2025-26: 12-21 · 5-17 conf
@
Georgetown
Efficiency #95
2025-26: 16-18 · 8-15 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
68.8
win 26%
Projected
76.4
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: GTWN −7.6 · total 145.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgetown 67.6, Maryland 67.7 → 66.9 possessions
−3.1
Georgetown offense vs Maryland defense
+1.9
Maryland offense vs Georgetown defense
−1.8
Projected total
145.3
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgetown offense vs Maryland defense
+1.9
Maryland offense vs Georgetown defense
+1.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Georgetown by 7.6
7.6
Maryland side ◂▸ Georgetown side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.2 against a projected 145.3, and the margin steps add to +7.5 against +7.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgetown.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgetown is the faster team (67.0, #244 of 365) and Maryland the slower (66.7, #257). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.3
model
Projected team totals
68.8 / 76.4
Maryland / Georgetown
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#239
Maryland
67.6#247
Georgetown

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMaryland
Where Maryland struggles: shooting
Maryland shoots an effective 48.1% (#311); Georgetown allows 49.9% (#96). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashGeorgetown
Style match: ball movement
Georgetown assists on 57.8% of its made baskets; Maryland allows assists on 61.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageGeorgetown
Where Georgetown scores: ball control
Georgetown turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#119); Maryland forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#296). Expect about 15.0%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Maryland's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Maryland at about 46.5% of its shots from three, Georgetown about 38.3%.
GlassMaryland
Maryland owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Maryland's offense.
ClashMaryland
Style match: paint scoring
Maryland gets only 34.4% of its points in the paint; Georgetown protects the paint (38.2% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.2% — both habits push the same way.
Maryland has the ball
OffenseGeorgetown allowsvs D1 avg
48.1% #311
49.9% #96
-3.6 pt/100
18.6% #304
16.2% #212
-0.8 pt/100
33.8% #73
31.5% #228
+1.8 pt/100
36.4% #142
33.9% #146
-0.0 pt/100
72.2% #202
—
-0.0 pt/100
Maryland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100
Georgetown has the ball
OffenseMaryland allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #257
54.4% #312
+0.9 pt/100
15.8% #119
14.9% #296
+2.1 pt/100
32.5% #107
29.1% #111
+0.5 pt/100
37.3% #121
35.8% #205
+0.2 pt/100
74.0% #133
—
+0.1 pt/100
Georgetown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Marylandoffense vsGeorgetowndefense
Share of shots by zone
Maryland shoots
Georgetown allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.8%#27956.6%#10558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32833.3%#3139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#12941.9%#29438.0%
Three31.7%#29333.3%#13933.7%
Georgetownoffense vsMarylanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgetown shoots
Maryland allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.9%#24359.6%#21158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.7%#18231.9%#2239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.9%#8041.3%#28338.0%
Three31.8%#28536.3%#31733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Maryland
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365
Off reb %
33.8%
#73
Def reb %
70.9%
#111
Turnover %
18.6%
#304
Forced TO %
14.9%
#296
FT rate
36.4%
#142
FT allowed
35.8%
#205
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Georgetown
+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#113 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#107
Def reb %
68.5%
#228
Turnover %
15.8%
#119
Forced TO %
16.2%
#212
FT rate
37.3%
#121
FT allowed
33.9%
#146
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Georgetown has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#113 of 365) to Maryland’s −0.6 (#204).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Maryland2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
13Elijah SaundersFSr6'8"33-3230.79.04.40.91.156.4%41.1%4.380.0%17.2%
7Andre MillsGFr6'4"33-2526.712.24.11.61.749.2%34.6%4.876.7%29.7%
8David CoitGSr5'11"33-1626.713.51.82.81.851.0%32.4%6.685.6%31.4%
1Darius AdamsGFr6'5"33-2825.610.83.41.62.040.6%24.8%4.071.4%31.5%
12Isaiah WattsGJr6'3"32-817.04.31.80.70.844.5%29.3%3.164.3%18.8%
45Collin MetcalfCSr6'9"31-1313.51.33.20.30.554.5%0.0%0.038.5%8.2%
2Myles RiceGJr6'3"17-416.55.62.11.31.443.3%34.4%1.992.6%24.4%
21Pharrel PayneFSr6'9"10-1026.817.57.21.42.762.4%—0.071.9%32.8%
11George Turkson Jr.GFr6'7"23-511.41.32.00.20.333.3%0.0%0.350.0%10.3%
18Guillermo Del PinoGFr6'5"23-29.31.60.70.50.637.0%27.6%1.350.0%17.5%
24Aleks AlstonFFr6'10"25-08.41.41.70.30.440.3%20.8%1.055.6%13.8%
15Jaziah HarperGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
30Lukas SotellGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Nick BlakeGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Rakease PassmoreGSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MarylandGeorgetown
Efficiency
107.9
110.7
109.1
106.3
67.7
67.6
—
—
Shooting
48.1%
49.6%
48.6%
50.7%
31.7%
31.8%
72.2%
74.0%
36.4%
37.3%
Ball control & glass
18.6%
15.8%
14.9%
16.2%
33.8%
32.5%
29.1%
31.5%
9.5%
9.2%
11.6%
9.1%
Style
46.9%
35.2%
34.4%
44.1%
8.7%
16.0%
45.2%
57.8%
31.4%
33.5%
Roster
2.61
2.74
6'4.9"
6'6.3"
87.9%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Maryland
Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.1%
Lost
  • Solomon Washington 24.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Nick Blake no D1 minutes last season
  • Rakease Passmore no D1 minutes last season
  • Lukas Sotell no D1 minutes last season
  • Jaziah Harper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Georgetown
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Georgetown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 72025-26Georgetown 70 – 60 Maryland

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.