CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral site
W Illinois
Efficiency #362
2025-26: 5-26 · 1-19 conf
vs
Hou Christian
Efficiency #297
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-15 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
66.7
win 28%
Projected
73.6
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: HCU −6.9 · total 140.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Hou Christian 66.2, W Illinois 67.7 → 65.6 possessions
−5.9
Hou Christian offense vs W Illinois defense
+2.5
W Illinois offense vs Hou Christian defense
−4.5
Projected total
140.3
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Hou Christian offense vs W Illinois defense
+2.5
W Illinois offense vs Hou Christian defense
+4.5
Hou Christian by 6.9
6.9
W Illinois side ◂▸ Hou Christian side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +7.0 against +6.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Hou Christian.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Illinois is the faster team (67.3, #230 of 365) and Hou Christian the slower (64.4, #344). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.3
model
Projected team totals
66.7 / 73.6
W Illinois / Hou Christian
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#231
W Illinois
66.2#335
Hou Christian
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Hou Christian averages 64.4 possessions per 40, W Illinois 67.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageW Illinois
Where W Illinois struggles: shooting
W Illinois shoots an effective 44.5% (#361); Hou Christian allows 54.2% (#304). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (W Illinois) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Illinois at about 33.2% of its shots from three, Hou Christian about 34.0%.
ClashHou Christian
Style match: paint scoring
Hou Christian scores 46.6% of its points in the paint; W Illinois gives up 48.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.7% — both habits push the same way.
W Illinois has the ball
OffenseHou Christian allowsvs D1 avg
44.5% #361
54.2% #304
-3.4 pt/100
17.5% #236
17.6% #117
-1.1 pt/100
27.0% #293
32.5% #279
-0.8 pt/100
37.7% #108
30.7% #79
-0.2 pt/100
66.2% #351
—
-0.5 pt/100
W Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100
Hou Christian has the ball
OffenseW Illinois allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #252
54.2% #303
+0.8 pt/100
18.9% #315
14.9% #297
+0.0 pt/100
29.9% #205
34.8% #334
+1.1 pt/100
36.0% #151
34.8% #173
+0.0 pt/100
69.4% #288
—
-0.3 pt/100
Hou Christian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersW Illinoisoffense vsHou Christiandefense
Share of shots by zone
W Illinois shoots
39.5
9.2
18.3
33.0
Hou Christian allows
44.0
6.1
12.8
37.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.3%#353 | 63.2%#330 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 29.0%#352 | 33.0%#30 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#293 | 39.5%#219 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.9%#322 | 35.0%#248 | 33.7% |
Hou Christianoffense vsW Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Hou Christian shoots
41.9
6.4
15.0
36.7
W Illinois allows
44.5
7.7
13.7
34.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.2%#265 | 62.3%#306 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.7%#202 | 40.5%#200 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.2%#283 | 33.7%#44 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#291 | 35.6%#288 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersW Illinois
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#311 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#293
Def reb %
65.2%
#334
Turnover %
17.5%
#236
Forced TO %
14.9%
#297
FT rate
37.7%
#108
FT allowed
34.8%
#173
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Hou Christian
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#187 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#205
Def reb %
67.5%
#279
Turnover %
18.9%
#315
Forced TO %
17.6%
#117
FT rate
36.0%
#151
FT allowed
30.7%
#79
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Hou Christian has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#187 of 365) to W Illinois’s −3.4 (#311).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
W Illinois2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lucas Lorenzen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-30 | 32.9 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 48.0% | 31.5% | 6.9 | 80.2% | 28.5% | |
| 12 | Isaiah Griffin | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-20 | 28.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 42.0% | 33.0% | 2.8 | 72.0% | 26.6% | |
| 13 | Makai Kvamme | G | Fr | 6'2" | 31-24 | 25.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 37.0% | 17.2% | 0.9 | 48.0% | 18.1% | |
| 15 | Francis Okwuosah | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-19 | 22.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 53.0% | 37.8% | 3.8 | 70.8% | 20.8% | |
| 45 | Antwaun Massey | F | Sr | 6'8" | 26-23 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 49.7% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 48.2% | 26.0% | |
| 22 | Goanar Biliew | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-18 | 17.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 44.6% | 38.9% | 0.6 | 56.5% | 17.7% | |
| 5 | Karyiek Dixon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 20-14 | 25.3 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.3% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 72.0% | 19.3% | |
| 0 | Tyran Cook | G | So | 6'2" | 27-5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Danny Stephens | G | Fr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 17.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 42.8% | 26.8% | 2.7 | 73.9% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Marcus Pigram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 40.2% | 27.3% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 21.9% | |
| 11 | Ifiok Peter | F | So | 6'6" | 23-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 52.8% | 24.3% | |
| 50 | Nick Hittle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 18-1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 39.5% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 68.8% | 18.7% | |
| 14 | Steven Tipton | G | Sr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 22.5% | |
| 10 | Jake Edwards | G | Fr | 6'5" | 11-0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 5.0% | |
| 1 | Jack Riley | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Hou Christian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kylin Green | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-30 | 31.1 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 40.5% | 27.4% | 2.6 | 73.7% | 26.4% | |
| 8 | Trent Johnson | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-27 | 30.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 59.6% | 40.3% | 4.0 | 81.7% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Ryan Bartley | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-22 | 29.4 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49.8% | 32.3% | 4.2 | 77.8% | 20.4% | |
| 23 | Demarco Bethea | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-28 | 25.8 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 57.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 57.5% | 24.6% | |
| 5 | D'Aundre Samuels | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-13 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 47.8% | 33.1% | 3.9 | 77.8% | 28.2% | |
| 0 | Demari Williams | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-15 | 22.0 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 51.3% | 30.9% | 1.9 | 79.4% | 27.1% | |
| 21 | Mambourou Mara | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-14 | 19.3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 46.4% | 21.3% | 2.0 | 55.6% | 21.5% | |
| 4 | Elijah Brooks | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-8 | 30.4 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 44.5% | 20.0% | 1.9 | 58.1% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Nehikhare Igiehon | F | Sr | 6'7" | 19-2 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 56.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 21.9% | |
| 10 | Caleb Gaston | F | Jr | 6'7" | 23-0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 15.0% | |
| 13 | Ahjany Lee | F | Jr | 6'8" | 18-0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 81.8% | — | 0.0 | 62.5% | 11.8% | |
| 24 | Bryson Monroe | G | Sr | 6'1" | 12-1 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 9.0% | |
| 9 | Obadiah Curtis | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 36.4% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 2 | Will Wilson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 17.3% | |
| 32 | Brennen Byrd | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
W Illinois2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lucas Lorenzen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-30 | 32.9 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 48.0% | 31.5% | 6.9 | 80.2% | 28.5% | |
| 12 | Isaiah Griffin | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-20 | 28.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 42.0% | 33.0% | 2.8 | 72.0% | 26.6% | |
| 13 | Makai Kvamme | G | Fr | 6'2" | 31-24 | 25.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 37.0% | 17.2% | 0.9 | 48.0% | 18.1% | |
| 15 | Francis Okwuosah | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-19 | 22.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 53.0% | 37.8% | 3.8 | 70.8% | 20.8% | |
| 45 | Antwaun Massey | F | Sr | 6'8" | 26-23 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 49.7% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 48.2% | 26.0% | |
| 22 | Goanar Biliew | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-18 | 17.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 44.6% | 38.9% | 0.6 | 56.5% | 17.7% | |
| 5 | Karyiek Dixon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 20-14 | 25.3 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.3% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 72.0% | 19.3% | |
| 0 | Tyran Cook | G | So | 6'2" | 27-5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Danny Stephens | G | Fr | 6'5" | 15-1 | 17.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 42.8% | 26.8% | 2.7 | 73.9% | 23.9% | |
| 2 | Marcus Pigram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 40.2% | 27.3% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 21.9% | |
| 11 | Ifiok Peter | F | So | 6'6" | 23-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 52.8% | 24.3% | |
| 50 | Nick Hittle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 18-1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 39.5% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 68.8% | 18.7% | |
| 14 | Steven Tipton | G | Sr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 22.5% | |
| 10 | Jake Edwards | G | Fr | 6'5" | 11-0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 5.0% | |
| 1 | Jack Riley | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26W Illinois
Against the spread
Season
11-17
Home
3-9
Road
8-8
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −8.5
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 2 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
12-15-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
6-10
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.2
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 | Lindenwood | H | L 69–91 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 150.5 | O160 | 97.8 | 129.0 | 70.5 |
| Feb 26 | SIUE | A | L 47–67 | +14.0 | L−6.0 | 135.5 | U114 | 69.8 | 99.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Morehead St | H | L 59–81 | +8.0 | L−14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 92.9 | 127.6 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | S Indiana | H | L 70–77 | +2.5 | L−4.5 | 140.0 | O147 | 106.1 | 116.7 | 66.0 |
| Feb 12 | Little Rock | H | L 58–77 | +7.5 | L−11.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 81.8 | 108.7 | 70.9 |
| Feb 10 | E Illinois | H | W 79–70 | +4.5 | W+13.5 | 133.0 | O149 | 109.7 | 97.2 | 72.0 |
| Feb 7 | Tennessee St | A | L 56–83 | +14.5 | L−12.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 82.3 | 121.9 | 68.1 |
| Feb 5 | Tennessee Tech | A | L 72–97 | +9.5 | L−15.5 | 144.0 | O169 | 116.4 | 156.9 | 61.8 |
| Jan 31 | UT Martin | H | L 44–84 | +9.0 | L−31.0 | 138.0 | U128 | 67.9 | 129.6 | 64.8 |
| Jan 29 | SE Missouri | H | L 74–78 | +11.0 | W+7.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 106.9 | 112.7 | 69.2 |
Hou Christian
Against the spread
Season
13-16-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
7-10
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −0.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15-1
Home
7-5
Road
7-9-1
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −9.6
Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | LSU N Orleans | N | L 60–73 | +4.0 | L−9.0 | 143.0 | U133 | 84.9 | 103.3 | 70.7 |
| Mar 2 | Lamar | H | W 75–53 | +2.5 | W+24.5 | 134.0 | U128 | 112.3 | 79.4 | 66.8 |
| Feb 28 | SF Austin | H | L 56–77 | +8.5 | L−12.5 | 137.5 | U133 | 89.4 | 122.9 | 62.6 |
| Feb 23 | East Texas A&M | A | W 69–68 | +2.0 | W+3.0 | 139.5 | U137 | 107.6 | 106.1 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | N'Western St | A | L 53–71 | +2.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U124 | 83.6 | 112.1 | 63.4 |
| Feb 16 | Nicholls | H | W 72–68 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 138.5 | O140 | 106.9 | 100.9 | 67.4 |
| Feb 14 | LSU N Orleans | H | W 61–60 | −1.0 | P0.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 98.2 | 96.6 | 62.1 |
| Feb 9 | McNeese | A | L 69–73 | +20.5 | W+16.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 102.1 | 108.1 | 67.6 |
| Feb 7 | SE Louisiana | A | L 47–55 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 133.5 | U102 | 83.2 | 97.4 | 56.5 |
| Feb 2 | UT Rio Grande | A | L 57–74 | +9.0 | L−8.0 | 141.5 | U131 | 92.1 | 119.6 | 61.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeW IllinoisHou Christian
Efficiency
98.4
104.6
116.1
111.7
67.7
66.2
—
—
Shooting
44.5%
49.7%
43.5%
50.9%
30.9%
31.7%
66.2%
69.4%
37.7%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
18.9%
14.9%
17.6%
27.0%
29.9%
34.8%
32.5%
10.0%
10.6%
11.1%
9.9%
Style
33.3%
36.5%
43.2%
46.6%
11.9%
12.1%
37.0%
58.7%
30.1%
27.5%
Roster
3.10
3.66
6'5.1"
6'4.6"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputW Illinois
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Hou Christian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 30 | 2026-27 | W Illinois 0 – 0 Hou Christian |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.