CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJack Stephens Center, Little Rock, AR
SE Louisiana
Efficiency #296
2025-26: 9-22 · 6-16 conf
@
Little Rock
Efficiency #300
2025-26: 12-20 · 9-12 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
68.2
win 38%
Projected
71.8
win 62%
No line posted yet.
Model: LR −3.6 · total 140.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Little Rock 67.7, SE Louisiana 67.1 → 66.4 possessions
−4.1
Little Rock offense vs SE Louisiana defense
−2.2
SE Louisiana offense vs Little Rock defense
−1.9
Projected total
140.1
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Little Rock offense vs SE Louisiana defense
−2.2
SE Louisiana offense vs Little Rock defense
+1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Little Rock by 3.6
3.6
SE Louisiana side ◂▸ Little Rock side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.0 against a projected 140.1, and the margin steps add to +3.5 against +3.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Little Rock.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Little Rock is the faster team (67.6, #217 of 365) and SE Louisiana the slower (65.6, #312). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.1
model
Projected team totals
68.2 / 71.8
SE Louisiana / Little Rock
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#282
SE Louisiana
67.7#233
Little Rock

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSE Louisiana
Where SE Louisiana struggles: shooting
SE Louisiana shoots an effective 46.7% (#343); Little Rock allows 51.8% (#199). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLittle Rock
Where Little Rock struggles: ball control
Little Rock turns it over on 18.4% of possessions (#293); SE Louisiana forces turnovers on 19.1% of opponent possessions (#46). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Little Rock averages 67.6 possessions per 40, SE Louisiana 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversSE Louisiana
SE Louisiana turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.8% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against SE Louisiana's offense.
DefenseLittle Rock
Little Rock's shot-blocking
Little Rock ranks #37 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.6% of SE Louisiana's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (SE Louisiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Louisiana at about 40.0% of its shots from three, Little Rock about 31.6%.
SE Louisiana has the ball
OffenseLittle Rock allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #343
51.8% #199
-3.4 pt/100
18.4% #291
18.5% #71
-2.5 pt/100
28.6% #245
36.6% #357
+1.1 pt/100
40.3% #56
33.1% #134
+0.2 pt/100
68.4% #318
—
-0.4 pt/100
SE Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100
Little Rock has the ball
OffenseSE Louisiana allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #273
52.4% #233
-0.7 pt/100
18.4% #293
19.1% #46
-3.0 pt/100
31.5% #143
31.4% #225
+0.8 pt/100
27.7% #345
41.2% #314
+0.0 pt/100
68.0% #327
—
-0.4 pt/100
Little Rock net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
SE Louisianaoffense vsLittle Rockdefense
Share of shots by zone
SE Louisiana shoots
Little Rock allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.7%#17162.6%#31558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30928.7%#1039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.1%#30929.6%#538.0%
Three28.4%#36234.4%#21133.7%
Little Rockoffense vsSE Louisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Little Rock shoots
SE Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.8%#5759.1%#19558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.4%#32346.7%#32839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.6%#34936.9%#12738.0%
Three35.3%#9636.0%#30133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
SE Louisiana
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#200 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#245
Def reb %
68.6%
#225
Turnover %
18.4%
#291
Forced TO %
19.1%
#46
FT rate
40.3%
#56
FT allowed
41.2%
#314
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.5
Little Rock
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#143
Def reb %
63.4%
#357
Turnover %
18.4%
#293
Forced TO %
18.5%
#71
FT rate
27.7%
#345
FT allowed
33.1%
#134
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+0.6

SE Louisiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#200 of 365) to Little Rock’s −2.8 (#296).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jeremy ElyzeeFSo6'7"31-3129.511.14.51.81.948.9%21.2%1.770.3%25.7%
23Isaiah GainesFSr6'8"31-3128.310.66.21.61.954.9%9.1%0.463.4%23.9%
1Makhi MylesFSo6'7"31-1821.07.73.60.60.950.5%34.3%3.382.8%22.7%
10Jaiden LawrenceGJr6'4"31-1820.35.12.40.60.545.9%29.9%3.566.7%17.2%
4CJ BookerPGSo5'10"30-2220.54.71.32.00.845.4%39.7%1.972.2%17.3%
8Peter HemschemeierGFr6'5"27-1220.36.41.61.91.640.7%27.5%4.473.1%27.2%
3Ethan PickettGSr6'5"31-2117.65.12.41.31.144.4%16.0%0.868.4%21.4%
2Jalen ForrestGJr6'4"28-017.27.92.60.61.044.0%26.5%2.478.8%29.6%
5Kyle EdisonGSo6'3"25-29.83.21.50.90.843.8%23.1%1.664.9%25.4%
6Ubong-Abasi EtimCSr6'9"31-07.41.21.50.20.251.5%—0.016.7%12.1%
32Garrett ShoemakerFFr6'9"24-07.11.91.40.10.451.5%29.4%0.735.7%20.5%
12Ahmed EssahatyGSr6'2"16-010.12.21.40.80.938.9%21.1%1.258.3%21.1%
7Seth JonesGJr6'1"8-019.87.32.81.02.341.7%27.9%5.480.0%30.3%
11Amir ChaneyPGFr5'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Cody Al-NaziatGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SE LouisianaLittle Rock
Efficiency
102.1
104.6
109.1
111.9
67.1
67.7
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
49.4%
49.4%
47.9%
28.4%
35.3%
68.4%
68.0%
40.3%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
18.4%
19.1%
18.5%
28.6%
31.5%
31.4%
36.6%
10.1%
10.6%
9.7%
5.6%
Style
39.5%
31.0%
43.8%
47.2%
12.2%
16.2%
51.6%
52.2%
37.4%
20.6%
Roster
2.67
3.39
6'5.1"
6'6.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
SE Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Little Rock
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.