CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFedExForum, Memphis, TN

VCU

Efficiency #39

2025-26: 28-8 · 18-3 conf

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · TBD

77.7

win 60%

Projected

74.7

win 40%

No line posted yet.

Model: VCU −3.0 · total 152.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Memphis 70.1, VCU 69.1 → 70.9 possessions

+5.6

Memphis offense vs VCU defense

−4.2

VCU offense vs Memphis defense

+2.9

Projected total

152.5

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Memphis offense vs VCU defense

−4.2

VCU offense vs Memphis defense

−2.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

VCU by 3.0

3.0

VCU side ◂▸ Memphis side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Memphis.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and VCU the slower (69.2, #132). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.5

model

Projected team totals

77.7 / 74.7

VCU / Memphis

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#109

VCU

70.1#44

Memphis

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis struggles: shooting

Memphis shoots an effective 48.7% (#298); VCU allows 49.0% (#69). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Memphis averages 71.4 possessions per 40, VCU 69.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashMemphis

Style match: 3-point volume

Memphis rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); VCU runs teams off the line (35.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageVCU

Where VCU scores: the offensive glass

VCU rebounds 31.6% of its own misses (#139); Memphis lets opponents grab 35.6% of their own misses (#350). Expect about 33.8%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (VCU, Memphis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect VCU at about 45.3% of its shots from three, Memphis about 32.0%.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's shot-blocking

Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of VCU's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

VCU has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #78

48.7% #55

+0.1 pt/100

15.1% #75

18.5% #70

-0.2 pt/100

31.6% #139

35.6% #350

+2.1 pt/100

42.0% #30

42.4% #329

+1.0 pt/100

73.6% #150

—

+0.1 pt/100

VCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100

Memphis has the ball

OffenseVCU allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

49.0% #69

-3.8 pt/100

18.9% #317

17.0% #158

-1.6 pt/100

35.3% #41

30.0% #162

+2.0 pt/100

34.7% #190

32.8% #126

-0.2 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

VCUoffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

VCU shoots

39.0

7.4

9.7

43.9

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#271	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#208	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#9	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	36.3%#46	30.5%#22	33.7%

Memphisoffense vsVCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

VCU allows

44.1

6.5

14.1

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	52.9%#23	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	36.4%#119	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	33.0%#125	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

VCU

+4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#33 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#139

Def reb %

70.0%

#162

Turnover %

15.1%

#75

Forced TO %

17.0%

#158

FT rate

42.0%

#30

FT allowed

32.8%

#126

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

VCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.3 (#33 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

VCU

Against the spread

Season

17-17-2

Home

7-10

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-20

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 55–76	+12.0	L−9.0	150.5	U131	83.4	115.2	66.0
Mar 19	#6North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 82–78 OT	+2.5	W+6.5	151.0	O160	107.1	101.9	76.5
Mar 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	W 70–62	−2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 14	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	W 77–64	−6.5	W+6.5	146.0	U141	118.4	98.4	65.0
Mar 13	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	W 71–66	−7.0	L−2.0	153.0	U137	109.6	101.9	64.8
Mar 6	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 68–62	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U130	112.1	102.2	60.6
Mar 3	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 70–65	−10.0	L−5.0	147.5	U135	115.1	106.9	60.8
Feb 28	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	W 82–63	−12.5	W+6.5	143.5	O145	120.2	92.4	68.2
Feb 20	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	A	L 75–88	+7.5	L−5.5	164.5	U163	97.3	114.1	77.1
Feb 17	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	W 89–75	−6.0	W+8.0	161.5	O164	130.2	109.7	68.3

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VCUMemphis

Efficiency

115.3

106.9

104.1

105.8

69.1

70.1

—

Shooting

53.6%

48.7%

53.0%

49.4%

36.3%

31.6%

73.6%

72.1%

42.0%

34.7%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

18.9%

17.0%

18.5%

31.6%

35.3%

30.0%

35.6%

9.0%

11.3%

9.0%

10.4%

Style

43.8%

33.7%

40.2%

44.9%

14.3%

17.0%

51.9%

49.8%

37.9%

40.2%

Roster

2.49

3.19

6'5.4"

6'5.6"

83.8%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

VCU

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 87.1%

Lost

Barry Evans 26.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keyshawn Mitchell 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Obinnaya Okafor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.