CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGallagher Center, Niagara Falls, NY

Morgan St

Efficiency #349

2025-26: 14-16 · 10-5 conf

Niagara

Efficiency #337

2025-26: 8-22 · 5-15 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · 6:30 PM ET

69.8

win 32%

Projected

75.3

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: NIA −5.5 · total 145.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Niagara 65.0, Morgan St 70.3 → 67.0 possessions

−2.9

Niagara offense vs Morgan St defense

+0.8

Morgan St offense vs Niagara defense

−0.9

Projected total

145.2

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Niagara offense vs Morgan St defense

+0.8

Morgan St offense vs Niagara defense

+0.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Niagara by 5.5

5.5

Morgan St side ◂▸ Niagara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.6 against +5.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Niagara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Morgan St is the faster team (70.7, #64 of 365) and Niagara the slower (63.1, #363). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.2

model

Projected team totals

69.8 / 75.3

Morgan St / Niagara

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.3#31

Morgan St

65.0#364

Niagara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Niagara averages 63.1 possessions per 40, Morgan St 70.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMorgan St

Where Morgan St struggles: shooting

Morgan St shoots an effective 45.8% (#351); Niagara allows 52.8% (#260). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Morgan St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Morgan St at about 36.6% of its shots from three, Niagara about 35.4%.

Morgan St has the ball

OffenseNiagara allowsvs D1 avg

45.8% #351

52.8% #260

-3.4 pt/100

17.8% #260

16.6% #179

-0.6 pt/100

30.7% #172

32.9% #297

+0.9 pt/100

42.7% #22

33.8% #144

+0.4 pt/100

74.3% #113

—

+0.2 pt/100

Morgan St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100

Niagara has the ball

OffenseMorgan St allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #214

51.7% #194

-0.4 pt/100

18.9% #319

16.5% #184

-1.3 pt/100

24.8% #344

35.2% #341

-1.0 pt/100

26.6% #353

50.9% #363

+0.7 pt/100

72.2% #203

—

-0.0 pt/100

Niagara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Morgan Stoffense vsNiagaradefense

Share of shots by zone

Morgan St shoots

38.9

2.0

23.1

35.9

Niagara allows

39.2

4.4

17.0

39.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.0%#340	58.7%#176	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#326	41.5%#225	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#289	40.6%#260	38.0%
Three	31.7%#295	35.3%#268	33.7%

Niagaraoffense vsMorgan Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Niagara shoots

43.4

3.5

12.3

40.8

Morgan St allows

48.0

4.8

15.6

31.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.1%#320	58.6%#168	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	26.9%#5	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	44.9%#349	38.0%
Three	33.7%#188	31.5%#43	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Morgan St

−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#335 of 365

Off reb %

30.7%

#172

Def reb %

64.8%

#341

Turnover %

17.8%

#260

Forced TO %

16.5%

#184

FT rate

42.7%

#22

FT allowed

50.9%

#363

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.0

Foul shots allowed−4.0

Niagara

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#356 of 365

Off reb %

24.8%

#344

Def reb %

67.1%

#297

Turnover %

18.9%

#319

Forced TO %

16.6%

#179

FT rate

26.6%

#353

FT allowed

33.8%

#144

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.8

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−2.2

Foul shots allowed+0.4

Morgan St has more extra scoring chances per game: −4.3 (#335 of 365) to Niagara’s −5.9 (#356).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Morgan St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Lawson	G	Sr	5'11"	30-22	32.8	12.8	3.6	4.0	2.5	41.8%	29.3%	4.4	81.7%	27.0%
2	Elijah Davis	G	Sr	6'1"	26-26	34.9	13.8	3.3	5.9	2.6	45.9%	21.7%	0.9	72.5%	25.5%
0	Christian Meeks	G	Jr	6'6"	30-27	28.6	5.9	5.8	0.8	1.0	56.1%	22.2%	0.3	62.0%	11.9%
1	Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	28.5	17.4	3.8	1.1	2.0	49.5%	36.3%	7.4	88.5%	34.0%
55	Eugene Alvin	F	Jr	6'7"	29-14	19.3	7.3	3.6	0.4	0.8	53.7%	38.4%	2.5	60.3%	21.5%
52	Walter Peggs Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	28-6	19.3	8.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	50.7%	36.7%	4.6	81.6%	25.3%
21	Christian Oliver	C	Sr	6'10"	26-9	14.3	4.3	3.0	0.4	0.5	57.3%	22.2%	0.3	67.9%	16.6%
7	Marland Harris	F	Sr	6'9"	20-6	12.9	3.9	3.8	0.3	0.8	54.7%	—	0.0	69.0%	17.3%
4	David Bumpass	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	9.1	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	40.6%	16.7%	1.1	59.4%	24.4%
22	Manok Lual	F	Jr	6'9"	20-4	7.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.5	50.0%	20.0%	0.3	47.4%	16.6%
42	Dallas James	C	Sr	7'1"	21-9	6.4	1.6	1.5	0.0	1.2	50.0%	—	0.0	72.7%	23.4%
5	Matar Wade	F	So	6'8"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.8	0.2	0.7	45.5%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	11.3%
10	Breon Barnett	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	3.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	11.1%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.9%
13	Trent Edwards	F	Jr	6'8"	2-1	17.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.5	33.3%	17.0%
32	Jayden Socka	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	2.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	20.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Niagara2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cole Farrellat Long Beach St	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	20.7	6.4	2.2	1.3	1.1	43.7%	27.5%	1.6	65.4%	21.6%
2	Trenton Walters	G	Sr	5'9"	25-7	22.4	7.2	1.6	2.7	1.5	40.8%	35.4%	3.2	81.2%	25.2%
4	Logan Woodsat Wright St	G	Sr	6'5"	35-8	18.4	5.3	1.9	1.5	0.9	54.0%	33.3%	2.3	66.7%	17.7%
8	Bastien Rieberat Fresno St	G	Jr	6'2"	32-7	16.4	4.0	1.2	1.5	1.2	48.4%	34.8%	1.4	74.5%	17.0%
77	Tae Blackshearat Youngstown St	G	Sr	6'6"	30-0	14.6	6.8	1.6	0.7	0.8	50.0%	32.8%	4.0	76.2%	29.7%
1	Vukasin Todorovicat Green Bay	F	So	6'8"	20-0	9.8	2.9	1.4	0.9	0.8	42.5%	14.3%	0.3	60.0%	24.5%
9	Gael Dalmau	G	So	6'6"	8-0	6.8	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.4	41.2%	26.7%	1.9	—	23.8%
12	Brian Angeletti	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Daniel Emokhare	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Fidel Rotta	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Jackson Redmond	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Noah Slingerland	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Ruey Ruey	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Samuele Miccoli	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Tae Blackshear (from Youngstown St), Cole Farrell (from Long Beach St), Bastien Rieber (from Fresno St), Vukasin Todorovic (from Green Bay), Logan Woods (from Wright St)

Morgan St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Lawson	G	Sr	5'11"	30-22	32.8	12.8	3.6	4.0	2.5	41.8%	29.3%	4.4	81.7%	27.0%
2	Elijah Davis	G	Sr	6'1"	26-26	34.9	13.8	3.3	5.9	2.6	45.9%	21.7%	0.9	72.5%	25.5%
0	Christian Meeks	G	Jr	6'6"	30-27	28.6	5.9	5.8	0.8	1.0	56.1%	22.2%	0.3	62.0%	11.9%
1	Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	28.5	17.4	3.8	1.1	2.0	49.5%	36.3%	7.4	88.5%	34.0%
55	Eugene Alvin	F	Jr	6'7"	29-14	19.3	7.3	3.6	0.4	0.8	53.7%	38.4%	2.5	60.3%	21.5%
52	Walter Peggs Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	28-6	19.3	8.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	50.7%	36.7%	4.6	81.6%	25.3%
21	Christian Oliver	C	Sr	6'10"	26-9	14.3	4.3	3.0	0.4	0.5	57.3%	22.2%	0.3	67.9%	16.6%
7	Marland Harris	F	Sr	6'9"	20-6	12.9	3.9	3.8	0.3	0.8	54.7%	—	0.0	69.0%	17.3%
4	David Bumpass	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	9.1	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	40.6%	16.7%	1.1	59.4%	24.4%
22	Manok Lual	F	Jr	6'9"	20-4	7.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.5	50.0%	20.0%	0.3	47.4%	16.6%
42	Dallas James	C	Sr	7'1"	21-9	6.4	1.6	1.5	0.0	1.2	50.0%	—	0.0	72.7%	23.4%
5	Matar Wade	F	So	6'8"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.8	0.2	0.7	45.5%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	11.3%
10	Breon Barnett	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	3.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	11.1%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.9%
13	Trent Edwards	F	Jr	6'8"	2-1	17.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.5	33.3%	17.0%
32	Jayden Socka	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	2.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	20.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Morgan St

Against the spread

Season

15-12

Home

8-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-11

Home

6-6

Road

9-5

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +4.7

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Delaware StAdjEM #358	N	L 70–75 OT	−3.0	L−8.0	143.0	O145	93.1	99.8	75.2
Mar 5	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	W 70–66	−6.5	L−2.5	150.5	U136	101.7	95.9	68.8
Mar 2	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	W 90–84	+3.5	W+9.5	157.0	O174	119.4	111.4	75.4
Feb 28	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 59–84	+9.5	L−15.5	158.0	U143	81.9	116.6	72.0
Feb 25	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	W 90–83	−1.5	W+5.5	154.5	O173	123.4	113.8	73.0
Feb 21	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 82–68	−5.5	W+8.5	145.0	O150	111.8	92.7	73.4
Feb 16	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 76–80	+5.5	W+1.5	148.0	O156	104.3	109.7	72.9
Feb 7	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 79–71	+1.5	W+9.5	141.0	O150	118.0	106.1	66.9
Jan 31	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	W 89–80	−2.5	W+6.5	155.5	O169	117.4	105.5	75.8
Jan 26	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	W 79–78	+8.0	W+9.0	153.5	O157	103.8	102.5	76.1

Niagara

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

7-5

Road

6-10

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.4

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

6-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.7

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 1	MerrimackAdjEM #158	H	L 66–73	+7.5	W+0.5	127.0	O139	108.9	120.5	60.6
Feb 27	QuinnipiacAdjEM #190	H	W 78–76 OT	+8.5	W+10.5	136.0	O154	113.8	110.9	68.6
Feb 22	RiderAdjEM #356	A	L 62–67	−2.0	L−7.0	130.5	U129	95.5	103.3	64.9
Feb 20	Mount St MarysAdjEM #265	A	L 63–76	+7.5	L−5.5	131.0	O139	90.1	108.6	69.9
Feb 15	IonaAdjEM #227	H	W 70–68	+4.5	W+6.5	132.0	O138	124.8	121.2	56.1
Feb 13	ManhattanAdjEM #328	H	L 69–76	+2.0	L−5.0	135.0	O145	108.9	119.9	63.4
Feb 7	QuinnipiacAdjEM #190	A	L 55–56	+13.5	W+12.5	137.5	U111	92.9	94.6	59.2
Feb 3	CanisiusAdjEM #344	H	W 65–56	−2.0	W+7.0	127.0	U121	113.0	97.3	57.5
Feb 1	MaristAdjEM #153	H	L 46–58	+9.5	L−2.5	130.0	U104	75.2	94.8	61.2
Jan 30	SienaAdjEM #134	H	L 79–82	+10.0	W+7.0	128.0	O161	125.3	130.1	63.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Morgan StNiagara

Efficiency

102.0

102.5

115.6

113.6

70.3

65.0

—

Shooting

45.8%

50.5%

44.9%

50.5%

31.7%

33.7%

74.3%

72.2%

42.7%

26.6%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

18.9%

16.5%

16.6%

30.7%

24.8%

35.2%

32.9%

9.4%

10.4%

9.7%

Style

35.2%

40.5%

37.2%

45.0%

18.3%

10.1%

52.2%

60.0%

32.6%

37.6%

Roster

3.58

3.67

6'4.3"

6'3.4"

—

10.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Morgan St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Niagara

Returning minutes: 10.2%Returning production: 8.3%

Lost

Reggie Prudhomme 26.4 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Hawkins 26.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Page 21.1 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Vice Zanki 20.3 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Josiah Sabino 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Will Shortt 19.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Cole Farrell from Long Beach St · 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
Logan Woods from Wright St · 18.4 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
Bastien Rieber from Fresno St · 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
Tae Blackshear from Youngstown St · 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
Vukasin Todorovic from Green Bay · 5.9 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
Brian Angeletti no D1 minutes last season

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	Niagara 73 – 81 Morgan St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.