CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Pit, Albuquerque, NM
N Arizona
Efficiency #329
2025-26: 10-22 · 4-15 conf
@
New Mexico
Efficiency #42
2025-26: 26-11 · 14-8 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
65.2
win 6%
Projected
83.2
win 94%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNM −17.9 · total 148.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: New Mexico 70.0, N Arizona 66.0 → 67.6 possessions
−1.5
New Mexico offense vs N Arizona defense
+7.9
N Arizona offense vs New Mexico defense
−6.2
Projected total
148.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
New Mexico offense vs N Arizona defense
+7.9
N Arizona offense vs New Mexico defense
+6.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
New Mexico by 17.9
17.9
N Arizona side ◂▸ New Mexico side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.0 against +17.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Mexico.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico is the faster team (70.7, #67 of 365) and N Arizona the slower (65.5, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
148.4
model
Projected team totals
65.2 / 83.2
N Arizona / New Mexico
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.0#342
N Arizona
70.0#51
New Mexico
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNew Mexico
Where New Mexico scores: shooting
New Mexico shoots an effective 53.5% (#82); N Arizona allows 56.9% (#355). Expect about 55.5%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageN Arizona
Where N Arizona struggles: the offensive glass
N Arizona rebounds 23.3% of its own misses (#348); New Mexico lets opponents grab 27.7% of their own misses (#57). Expect about 24.1%, 6.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
New Mexico averages 70.7 possessions per 40, N Arizona 65.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Mexico's defense, N Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Arizona at about 42.8% of its shots from three, New Mexico about 41.8%.
N Arizona has the ball
OffenseNew Mexico allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #161
49.5% #84
-0.9 pt/100
16.0% #141
19.0% #51
-1.2 pt/100
23.3% #348
27.7% #57
-3.8 pt/100
31.8% #260
33.3% #138
-0.3 pt/100
68.9% #304
—
-0.3 pt/100
N Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100
New Mexico has the ball
OffenseN Arizona allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #82
56.9% #355
+5.9 pt/100
14.9% #58
16.6% #180
+1.5 pt/100
30.6% #176
33.4% #305
+1.0 pt/100
35.8% #160
32.7% #124
-0.1 pt/100
72.9% #176
—
+0.0 pt/100
New Mexico net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersN Arizonaoffense vsNew Mexicodefense
Share of shots by zone
N Arizona shoots
38.6
7.1
19.1
35.2
New Mexico allows
30.7
4.1
17.3
48.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.6%#284 | 59.1%#196 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#31 | 43.4%#258 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#101 | 43.4%#333 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#79 | 30.5%#20 | 33.7% |
New Mexicooffense vsN Arizonadefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico shoots
42.6
5.3
10.7
41.4
N Arizona allows
42.8
5.2
11.7
40.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#225 | 62.3%#307 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.9%#125 | 37.2%#115 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.8%#84 | 41.1%#278 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#83 | 38.7%#362 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersN Arizona
−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#300 of 365
Off reb %
23.3%
#348
Def reb %
66.6%
#305
Turnover %
16.0%
#141
Forced TO %
16.6%
#180
FT rate
31.8%
#260
FT allowed
32.7%
#124
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.6
New Mexico
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#30 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#176
Def reb %
72.3%
#57
Turnover %
14.9%
#58
Forced TO %
19.0%
#51
FT rate
35.8%
#160
FT allowed
33.3%
#138
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.5
New Mexico has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#30 of 365) to N Arizona’s −2.9 (#300).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
N Arizona2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ryan Abelman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-30 | 32.3 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 49.5% | 36.1% | 4.8 | 89.4% | 20.3% | |
| 2 | Chris Komin | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-17 | 26.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 53.1% | 35.7% | 2.3 | 81.8% | 17.3% | |
| 3 | Traivar Jackson | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-20 | 22.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 57.8% | — | 0.0 | 64.8% | 19.6% | |
| 9 | Karl Poom | F | So | 6'8" | 32-2 | 19.6 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 30.5% | 1.8 | 54.4% | 30.3% | |
| 7 | Brennan Peterson | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-16 | 19.4 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 56.5% | 41.1% | 2.8 | 71.4% | 15.7% | |
| 24 | Isaiah Shaw | G | Jr | 6'8" | 29-22 | 18.3 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 56.9% | 46.4% | 2.4 | 81.1% | 25.1% | |
| 44 | Arne Osojnik | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-14 | 16.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 48.3% | 32.4% | 2.3 | 77.3% | 26.8% | |
| 12 | Diego Campisano | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-9 | 17.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 52.1% | 37.9% | 3.7 | 76.9% | 23.5% | |
| 22 | Kavon Bradford | G | So | 6'1" | 28-12 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 44.9% | 26.7% | 0.5 | 65.6% | 24.0% | |
| 5 | Zack Davidson | F | So | 6'9" | 14-13 | 23.6 | 14.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 62.0% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 46.3% | 33.1% | |
| 4 | Oakland Fort | G | Sr | 5'10" | 29-5 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 57.3% | 37.0% | 0.9 | 50.0% | 17.2% | |
| 82 | Erez Poran | G | Fr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 32.1% | 14.3% | 0.5 | 33.3% | 15.0% | |
| 8 | Walker Timme | F | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 13.7% | |
| 0 | JT Amundsen | G | Fr | 5'8" | 4-0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.8 | — | 22.2% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
New Mexico2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jake Hall | G | Fr | 6'4" | 37-37 | 31.0 | 16.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 61.7% | 43.8% | 7.2 | 80.0% | 25.2% | |
| 3 | Luke Haupt | G | Sr | 6'7" | 37-27 | 28.1 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 71.6% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | Uriah Tenette | G | Fr | 5'11" | 36-8 | 27.5 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 47.8% | 32.4% | 3.8 | 83.2% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | Tomislav Buljan | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-35 | 26.0 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55.3% | 30.8% | 0.7 | 60.7% | 29.0% | |
| 5 | Antonio Chol | F | Jr | 6'9" | 37-32 | 24.2 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 32.3% | 5.0 | 60.0% | 19.3% | |
| 1 | Deyton Albury | G | Sr | 6'2" | 35-34 | 24.8 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 55.6% | 37.7% | 1.5 | 77.9% | 26.9% | |
| 2 | Tajavis Miller | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-0 | 16.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 34.3% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 20.0% | |
| 35 | JT Rock | C | So | 7'1" | 37-1 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 61.9% | 39.7% | 1.6 | 64.4% | 24.6% | |
| 8 | Chris Howell | G | Sr | 6'6" | 11-11 | 24.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 42.4% | 27.8% | 1.6 | 87.5% | 16.0% | |
| 31 | Milos Vicentic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 40.8% | 20.7% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 27.7% | |
| 0 | Kevin Patton Jr. | G | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 39.6% | 10.0% | 1.1 | 57.1% | 20.0% | |
| 29 | Timeo Pons | G | Fr | 6'8" | 13-0 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 45.0% | 30.4% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 29.5% | |
| 11 | Kallai Patton | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sir Marius Jones | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
N Arizona2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ryan Abelman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-30 | 32.3 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 49.5% | 36.1% | 4.8 | 89.4% | 20.3% | |
| 2 | Chris Komin | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-17 | 26.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 53.1% | 35.7% | 2.3 | 81.8% | 17.3% | |
| 3 | Traivar Jackson | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-20 | 22.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 57.8% | — | 0.0 | 64.8% | 19.6% | |
| 9 | Karl Poom | F | So | 6'8" | 32-2 | 19.6 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 30.5% | 1.8 | 54.4% | 30.3% | |
| 7 | Brennan Peterson | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-16 | 19.4 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 56.5% | 41.1% | 2.8 | 71.4% | 15.7% | |
| 24 | Isaiah Shaw | G | Jr | 6'8" | 29-22 | 18.3 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 56.9% | 46.4% | 2.4 | 81.1% | 25.1% | |
| 44 | Arne Osojnik | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-14 | 16.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 48.3% | 32.4% | 2.3 | 77.3% | 26.8% | |
| 12 | Diego Campisano | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-9 | 17.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 52.1% | 37.9% | 3.7 | 76.9% | 23.5% | |
| 22 | Kavon Bradford | G | So | 6'1" | 28-12 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 44.9% | 26.7% | 0.5 | 65.6% | 24.0% | |
| 5 | Zack Davidson | F | So | 6'9" | 14-13 | 23.6 | 14.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 62.0% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 46.3% | 33.1% | |
| 4 | Oakland Fort | G | Sr | 5'10" | 29-5 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 57.3% | 37.0% | 0.9 | 50.0% | 17.2% | |
| 82 | Erez Poran | G | Fr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 32.1% | 14.3% | 0.5 | 33.3% | 15.0% | |
| 8 | Walker Timme | F | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 13.7% | |
| 0 | JT Amundsen | G | Fr | 5'8" | 4-0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.8 | — | 22.2% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26N Arizona
Against the spread
Season
14-15
Home
7-6
Road
6-8
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
11-18
Home
6-7
Road
4-10
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −2.9
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Idaho St | N | L 65–73 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 142.5 | U138 | 98.2 | 110.3 | 66.2 |
| Mar 2 | Montana St | H | L 65–76 | +6.0 | L−5.0 | 143.5 | U141 | 106.6 | 124.6 | 61.0 |
| Feb 28 | E Washington | A | L 57–88 | +9.5 | L−21.5 | 147.0 | U145 | 89.7 | 138.6 | 63.5 |
| Feb 26 | Idaho | A | L 58–78 | +10.5 | L−9.5 | 146.0 | U136 | 95.6 | 128.6 | 60.7 |
| Feb 21 | N Colorado | A | L 77–78 | +12.5 | W+11.5 | 150.5 | O155 | 115.6 | 117.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Sacramento St | H | W 79–74 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 155.0 | U153 | 111.2 | 104.2 | 71.0 |
| Feb 12 | Portland St | H | L 68–77 | +7.5 | L−1.5 | 135.5 | O145 | 107.6 | 121.8 | 63.2 |
| Feb 7 | Weber St | A | L 53–72 | +7.0 | L−12.0 | 151.0 | U125 | 90.3 | 122.6 | 58.7 |
| Feb 5 | Idaho St | A | W 79–73 | +8.0 | W+14.0 | 141.5 | O152 | 133.1 | 123.0 | 59.4 |
| Jan 31 | Idaho | H | L 62–79 | +5.5 | L−11.5 | 147.0 | U141 | 94.8 | 120.8 | 65.4 |
New Mexico
Against the spread
Season
21-14
Home
11-7
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +1.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
22-12-1
Home
11-6-1
Road
8-4
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | Tulsa | N | L 69–74 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 162.5 | U143 | 97.1 | 104.2 | 71.0 |
| Mar 24 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 84–69 | −10.5 | W+4.5 | 155.0 | U153 | 113.9 | 93.5 | 73.8 |
| Mar 22 | G Washington | H | W 86–61 | −7.0 | W+18.0 | 161.5 | U147 | 125.8 | 89.2 | 68.4 |
| Mar 18 | Sam Houston | H | W 107–83 | −11.5 | W+12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 140.7 | 109.2 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | San Diego St | N | L 62–64 | +2.5 | W+0.5 | 150.5 | U126 | 93.7 | 96.8 | 66.1 |
| Mar 12 | San José St | N | W 93–77 | −15.5 | W+0.5 | 154.5 | O170 | 135.2 | 111.9 | 68.8 |
| Mar 7 | Utah State | A | L 90–94 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 130.0 | 135.8 | 69.2 |
| Mar 4 | Colorado St | H | L 74–82 | −8.0 | L−16.0 | 151.0 | O156 | 101.9 | 112.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 28 | San Diego St | H | W 81–76 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 115.3 | 108.1 | 70.3 |
| Feb 24 | Nevada | A | L 60–67 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 150.0 | U127 | 84.9 | 94.7 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeN ArizonaNew Mexico
Efficiency
105.0
113.5
115.1
102.9
66.0
70.0
—
—
Shooting
51.7%
53.5%
50.7%
53.6%
35.6%
35.6%
68.9%
72.9%
31.8%
35.8%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
14.9%
16.6%
19.0%
23.3%
30.6%
33.4%
27.7%
8.4%
8.6%
8.9%
9.2%
Style
36.7%
41.9%
44.1%
42.8%
10.0%
15.4%
51.0%
52.8%
35.9%
31.5%
Roster
2.54
2.48
6'4.6"
6'5.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputN Arizona
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
New Mexico
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.