CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceKoessler Athletic Center, Buffalo, NY
St Bonaventure
Efficiency #138
2025-26: 17-17 · 6-15 conf
@
Canisius
Efficiency #344
2025-26: 10-21 · 5-15 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET
74.0
win 68%
Projected
68.7
win 32%
No line posted yet.
Model: SBU −5.4 · total 142.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Canisius 66.2, St Bonaventure 68.2 → 66.0 possessions
−5.0
Canisius offense vs St Bonaventure defense
−4.8
St Bonaventure offense vs Canisius defense
+4.3
Projected total
142.7
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Canisius offense vs St Bonaventure defense
−4.8
St Bonaventure offense vs Canisius defense
−4.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
St Bonaventure by 5.4
5.4
St Bonaventure side ◂▸ Canisius side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −5.3 against −5.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Canisius.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Bonaventure is the faster team (67.5, #222 of 365) and Canisius the slower (64.3, #348). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.7
model
Projected team totals
74.0 / 68.7
St Bonaventure / Canisius
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#194
St Bonaventure
66.2#336
Canisius

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Canisius averages 64.3 possessions per 40, St Bonaventure 67.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageCanisius
Where Canisius struggles: shooting
Canisius shoots an effective 46.3% (#348); St Bonaventure allows 53.3% (#278). Expect about 49.4%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSt Bonaventure
St Bonaventure's shot-blocking
St Bonaventure ranks #24 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Canisius's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
TurnoversCanisius
Canisius turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Canisius's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (St Bonaventure) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect St Bonaventure at about 35.8% of its shots from three, Canisius about 40.3%.
AdvantageSt Bonaventure
Where St Bonaventure scores: shooting
St Bonaventure shoots an effective 52.4% (#129); Canisius allows 52.2% (#225). Expect about 52.4%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
St Bonaventure has the ball
OffenseCanisius allowsvs D1 avg
52.4% #129
52.2% #225
+1.6 pt/100
16.8% #191
16.0% #222
+0.6 pt/100
34.5% #60
29.8% #151
+1.6 pt/100
30.0% #310
35.2% #184
-0.3 pt/100
74.7% #98
—
+0.2 pt/100
St Bonaventure net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100
Canisius has the ball
OffenseSt Bonaventure allowsvs D1 avg
46.3% #348
53.3% #278
-2.6 pt/100
19.6% #341
17.1% #146
-2.2 pt/100
29.3% #226
29.8% #150
-0.7 pt/100
31.4% #271
33.9% #147
-0.3 pt/100
71.9% #212
—
-0.0 pt/100
Canisius net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
St Bonaventureoffense vsCanisiusdefense
Share of shots by zone
St Bonaventure shoots
Canisius allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.2%#18660.1%#22958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.6%#7139.0%#15839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16340.7%#26638.0%
Three37.4%#2233.0%#12433.7%
Canisiusoffense vsSt Bonaventuredefense
Share of shots by zone
Canisius shoots
St Bonaventure allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim47.2%#36557.6%#13558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.5%#1031.9%#2139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.6%#29845.6%#35338.0%
Three33.3%#21336.0%#29933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
St Bonaventure
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#147 of 365
Off reb %
34.5%
#60
Def reb %
70.2%
#150
Turnover %
16.8%
#191
Forced TO %
17.1%
#146
FT rate
30.0%
#310
FT allowed
33.9%
#147
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Canisius
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#313 of 365
Off reb %
29.3%
#226
Def reb %
70.2%
#151
Turnover %
19.6%
#341
Forced TO %
16.0%
#222
FT rate
31.4%
#271
FT allowed
35.2%
#184
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0

St Bonaventure has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#147 of 365) to Canisius’s −3.4 (#313).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

St Bonaventure2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Darryl Simmons IIGJr5'11"34-3335.516.41.92.81.454.5%42.5%6.589.9%26.2%
00Frank MitchellFSr6'8"34-3333.616.310.22.82.755.6%0.0%0.160.9%30.1%
5Dasonte BowenGSr6'2"33-3334.310.93.04.82.144.2%32.7%1.785.2%22.1%
24Cayden CharlesGSr6'3"34-3433.312.96.62.11.548.6%32.6%2.679.4%23.3%
3Daniel EgbuniweFSr6'7"31-1923.18.23.21.11.154.3%39.7%3.974.0%21.3%
32Joe GrahovacFSo6'10"34-1418.34.53.00.80.756.9%36.4%1.987.5%14.8%
20Achille LonatiGFr6'5"29-18.12.50.80.70.346.4%25.5%1.861.5%21.9%
2Amar'e MarshallGSr6'4"11-013.24.71.91.40.756.1%33.3%1.660.0%21.8%
1Ilia ErmakovGFr6'5"9-011.12.91.11.21.259.1%42.9%1.60.0%20.0%
30Broek OstromGSr6'2"4-13.00.80.30.00.550.0%50.0%0.50.0%29.7%
15Jack DeRoseGJr6'0"3-02.01.00.00.00.775.0%50.0%0.7—39.7%
21Xander WedlowCSo6'10"2-03.00.01.00.01.00.0%—0.0—29.1%
7Brayden JacksonGSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4John IkpotokinFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
St BonaventureCanisius
Efficiency
111.7
99.6
110.0
111.8
68.2
66.2
—
—
Shooting
52.4%
46.3%
50.8%
44.0%
37.4%
33.3%
74.7%
71.9%
30.0%
31.4%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
19.6%
17.1%
16.0%
34.5%
29.3%
29.8%
29.8%
9.4%
10.5%
8.0%
9.7%
Style
31.3%
39.5%
46.6%
39.3%
17.3%
11.6%
55.2%
55.4%
21.8%
27.8%
Roster
3.46
3.69
6'4.2"
6'4.2"
94.2%
0.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
St Bonaventure
Returning minutes: 94.2%Returning production: 92.5%
Lost
  • Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
  • John Ikpotokin no D1 minutes last season
  • Brayden Jackson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Canisius
Returning minutes: 0.2%Returning production: -0.0%
Lost
  • Kahlil Singleton 33.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bryan Ndjonga 32.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mike Evbagharu 32.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Myles Wilmoth 23.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Javante Edwards 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chris Kumu 11.2 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Preist Ryan from Cleveland St · 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
  • Vinny Sigona from East Texas A&M · 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg last season
  • Clinton Efinda from UNC Greensboro · 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season
  • Michael Wilson Jr. from Bellarmine · 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
  • Demarris Winters from UT Rio Grande · 4.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
  • Nate Deer from Oakland · 1.4 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 82025-26Canisius 70 – 89 St Bonaventure

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.