CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Samford
Efficiency #202
2025-26: 18-14 · 11-8 conf
@
UNLV
Efficiency #124
2025-26: 18-17 · 12-10 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
74.5
win 28%
Projected
81.2
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNLV −6.7 · total 155.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UNLV 69.9, Samford 68.3 → 69.9 possessions
+3.5
UNLV offense vs Samford defense
+3.3
Samford offense vs UNLV defense
+0.7
Projected total
155.7
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UNLV offense vs Samford defense
+3.3
Samford offense vs UNLV defense
−0.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
UNLV by 6.7
6.7
Samford side ◂▸ UNLV side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.6 against +6.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UNLV.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UNLV is the faster team (70.5, #75 of 365) and Samford the slower (68.4, #176). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.7
model
Projected team totals
74.5 / 81.2
Samford / UNLV
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#182
Samford
69.9#55
UNLV

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUNLV
Where UNLV scores: ball control
UNLV turns it over on 17.1% of possessions (#209); Samford forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#354). Expect about 14.5%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseUNLV
UNLV's shot-blocking
UNLV ranks #33 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Samford's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageSamford
Where Samford scores: shooting
Samford shoots an effective 53.1% (#101); UNLV allows 52.3% (#231). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Samford's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Samford at about 42.6% of its shots from three, UNLV about 34.7%.
TurnoversSamford
Samford protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Samford's offense.
GlassSamford
Samford gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Samford's offense.
Samford has the ball
OffenseUNLV allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #101
52.3% #231
+2.3 pt/100
13.4% #11
17.4% #126
+1.9 pt/100
25.3% #333
32.0% #256
-1.7 pt/100
41.9% #32
44.9% #349
+1.1 pt/100
69.2% #293
—
-0.3 pt/100
Samford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100
UNLV has the ball
OffenseSamford allowsvs D1 avg
53.6% #81
51.9% #206
+2.3 pt/100
17.1% #209
13.0% #354
+2.8 pt/100
30.2% #189
25.7% #17
-1.5 pt/100
40.7% #51
32.9% #128
+0.2 pt/100
67.7% #331
—
-0.4 pt/100
UNLV net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Samfordoffense vsUNLVdefense
Share of shots by zone
Samford shoots
UNLV allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.5%#6358.5%#16558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)27.5%#35926.2%#239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.4%#13642.7%#32338.0%
Three35.6%#8435.2%#25933.7%
UNLVoffense vsSamforddefense
Share of shots by zone
UNLV shoots
Samford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.3%#11157.1%#11458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.0%#17137.5%#12439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5842.7%#32538.0%
Three35.2%#10236.5%#32633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Samford
+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#94 of 365
Off reb %
25.3%
#333
Def reb %
74.3%
#17
Turnover %
13.4%
#11
Forced TO %
13.0%
#354
FT rate
41.9%
#32
FT allowed
32.9%
#128
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed+0.6
UNLV
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#244 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#189
Def reb %
68.0%
#256
Turnover %
17.1%
#209
Forced TO %
17.4%
#126
FT rate
40.7%
#51
FT allowed
44.9%
#349
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−2.5

Samford has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#94 of 365) to UNLV’s −1.2 (#244).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Samford2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Jadin BoothGSr6'2"30-3036.521.63.72.21.660.3%43.6%9.786.9%29.2%
5Cade NorrisGSo6'4"32-3130.78.94.62.10.856.2%40.4%3.476.3%15.7%
3Keaton NorrisGSr6'0"28-2832.910.04.34.91.447.4%31.1%4.783.6%20.0%
0Isaiah Campbell-FinchGFr6'0"29-1923.47.41.51.30.749.5%32.1%2.951.6%20.0%
10Kam MartinGSo6'4"32-816.65.72.10.90.550.0%32.6%2.885.1%19.6%
8Zion WilburnGSo6'5"30-517.04.62.20.91.045.5%29.6%1.860.7%19.6%
22Jaxon PollardFSr6'7"25-813.03.23.70.60.337.4%19.6%2.060.0%19.4%
35Will ShaverCSo6'10"30-09.62.72.60.81.150.8%33.3%0.459.3%22.0%
4Judson BjornstadFSo6'8"24-18.82.31.40.30.341.3%28.6%0.972.7%17.1%
23Caleb HarrisonFFr6'9"12-06.11.71.50.80.360.0%0.0%0.150.0%15.1%
33Zach LameyGSo6'3"5-08.24.61.00.00.668.8%46.2%2.650.0%26.5%
21Corey BrownGSo6'4"5-06.40.80.60.80.225.0%0.0%0.6100.0%10.1%
11Cooper DavenportGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1DaJion HumphreyGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7JD GossettGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Joshua HughesFSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SamfordUNLV
Efficiency
109.1
111.3
110.4
108.8
68.3
69.9
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
53.6%
52.8%
54.0%
35.6%
35.2%
69.2%
67.7%
41.9%
40.7%
Ball control & glass
13.4%
17.1%
13.0%
17.4%
25.3%
30.2%
25.7%
32.0%
7.6%
9.2%
10.2%
7.8%
Style
45.7%
36.4%
37.7%
46.9%
10.8%
13.8%
55.2%
51.3%
28.1%
29.1%
Roster
2.69
2.76
6'3.3"
6'5.4"
87.9%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Samford
Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 77.5%
Lost
  • Dylan Faulkner 24.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg · transferred to Clemson
Added
  • JD Gossett no D1 minutes last season
  • Cooper Davenport no D1 minutes last season
  • DaJion Humphrey no D1 minutes last season
  • Joshua Hughes no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UNLV
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UNLV's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.