CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceConvocation Center (OH), Athens, OH
NC A&T
Efficiency #271
2025-26: 11-19 · 4-15 conf
@
Ohio
Efficiency #233
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-10 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
74.4
win 30%
Projected
80.4
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: OHIO −6.0 · total 154.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Ohio 69.4, NC A&T 69.0 → 70.1 possessions
+3.8
Ohio offense vs NC A&T defense
+2.3
NC A&T offense vs Ohio defense
+0.4
Projected total
154.8
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Ohio offense vs NC A&T defense
+2.3
NC A&T offense vs Ohio defense
−0.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Ohio by 6.0
6.0
NC A&T side ◂▸ Ohio side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 154.7 against a projected 154.8, and the margin steps add to +5.9 against +6.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ohio.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Ohio is the faster team (70.4, #79 of 365) and NC A&T the slower (69.1, #141). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.8
model
Projected team totals
74.4 / 80.4
NC A&T / Ohio
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#121
NC A&T
69.4#93
Ohio

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageOhio
Where Ohio scores: ball control
Ohio turns it over on 15.5% of possessions (#101); NC A&T forces turnovers on 14.1% of opponent possessions (#331). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashNC A&T
Style match: 3-point volume
NC A&T rarely shoots threes (32.7% of its shots); Ohio runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.2% — both habits push the same way.
ClashNC A&T
Style match: ball movement
NC A&T creates off the dribble (assists on 45.4% of its baskets); Ohio breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.8% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Ohio, Ohio's defense, NC A&T's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC A&T at about 30.2% of its shots from three, Ohio about 37.5%.
ClashOhio
Style clash: ball movement
Ohio creates off the dribble (assists on 46.6% of its baskets); NC A&T allows assists on 58.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
NC A&T has the ball
OffenseOhio allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #201
53.0% #269
+0.8 pt/100
18.6% #305
16.1% #217
-0.7 pt/100
31.7% #136
32.8% #289
+1.3 pt/100
42.3% #26
38.2% #266
+0.7 pt/100
73.5% #154
—
+0.1 pt/100
NC A&T net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100
Ohio has the ball
OffenseNC A&T allowsvs D1 avg
50.9% #197
52.9% #266
+0.9 pt/100
15.5% #101
14.1% #331
+3.0 pt/100
28.4% #248
28.6% #89
-1.4 pt/100
36.9% #132
37.5% #250
+0.3 pt/100
71.0% #237
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ohio net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NC A&Toffense vsOhiodefense
Share of shots by zone
NC A&T shoots
Ohio allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.9%#9758.6%#16958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.4%#29739.8%#18939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.5%#7238.8%#19238.0%
Three31.6%#30436.8%#34033.7%
Ohiooffense vsNC A&Tdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio shoots
NC A&T allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.2%#8760.0%#22558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.9%#8336.9%#10939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.6%#1939.0%#20238.0%
Three30.1%#34136.6%#33133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NC A&T
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#209 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#136
Def reb %
71.4%
#89
Turnover %
18.6%
#305
Forced TO %
14.1%
#331
FT rate
42.3%
#26
FT allowed
37.5%
#250
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Ohio
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#236 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#248
Def reb %
67.2%
#289
Turnover %
15.5%
#101
Forced TO %
16.1%
#217
FT rate
36.9%
#132
FT allowed
38.2%
#266
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.8

NC A&T has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#209 of 365) to Ohio’s −1.1 (#236).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC A&T2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Lewis WalkerFFr6'6"29-2634.218.95.01.81.855.2%36.7%2.786.2%28.1%
8Zamoku Weluche-UmeFJr6'8"29-2430.711.37.20.92.248.5%26.9%2.763.0%25.0%
1Trent Middleton Jr.GJr6'3"29-2829.612.53.63.12.350.9%31.1%3.676.5%26.8%
11Dwayne PierceGSo6'5"24-2328.08.52.32.72.141.4%30.8%3.862.1%24.5%
4Bryson OgletreeGJr6'4"28-821.04.51.81.10.860.4%36.4%2.053.6%12.2%
34Will FeltonCJr6'9"29-515.76.74.20.30.969.6%—0.057.6%21.4%
14Amadou DoumbiaFSo6'11"27-2314.03.44.00.20.551.5%0.0%0.163.9%14.7%
7Brooklyn VickGFr6'2"19-517.73.72.32.41.637.7%23.1%1.465.5%19.0%
32KJ DebrickFSr6'9"29-211.44.53.40.50.348.0%15.4%0.472.0%22.8%
2Mujahiid BurtonGJr6'5"20-216.45.01.30.50.547.4%31.9%3.562.5%19.7%
0Lureon WalkerGJr6'5"5-429.016.63.01.01.054.5%50.0%3.668.8%27.7%
9Yancarlos CuetoGFr6'5"6-08.72.31.20.50.845.8%33.3%1.575.0%19.6%
20Chanler MontgomeryGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Efstratios KalliontzisCSo6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Jalal McKieGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Uchenna Kellman-NicholesGJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NC A&TOhio
Efficiency
106.4
108.0
112.3
111.1
69.0
69.4
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
50.9%
52.3%
54.5%
31.6%
30.1%
73.5%
71.0%
42.3%
36.9%
Ball control & glass
18.6%
15.5%
14.1%
16.1%
31.7%
28.4%
28.6%
32.8%
9.7%
8.5%
8.4%
7.5%
Style
32.7%
38.1%
41.2%
45.2%
15.4%
9.2%
45.4%
46.6%
30.2%
23.8%
Roster
2.42
3.12
6'6"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NC A&T
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Ohio
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Ohio's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.