CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteMohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CTBasketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off
Monmouth
Efficiency #173
2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf
vs
Rhode Island
Efficiency #137
2025-26: 16-16 · 7-12 conf
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
68.8
win 46%
Projected
69.9
win 54%
No line posted yet.
Model: URI −1.2 · total 138.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Rhode Island 67.3, Monmouth 68.0 → 67.0 possessions
−3.0
Rhode Island offense vs Monmouth defense
−2.7
Monmouth offense vs Rhode Island defense
−3.9
Projected total
138.7
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Rhode Island offense vs Monmouth defense
−2.7
Monmouth offense vs Rhode Island defense
+3.9
Rhode Island by 1.2
1.2
Monmouth side ◂▸ Rhode Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.6 against a projected 138.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rhode Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Monmouth is the faster team (67.2, #235 of 365) and Rhode Island the slower (66.0, #295). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.7
model
Projected team totals
68.8 / 69.9
Monmouth / Rhode Island
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#210
Monmouth
67.3#267
Rhode Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRhode Island
Where Rhode Island struggles: ball control
Rhode Island turns it over on 19.2% of possessions (#329); Monmouth forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#27). Expect about 20.2%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMonmouth
Where Monmouth struggles: ball control
Monmouth turns it over on 16.6% of possessions (#173); Rhode Island forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#10). Expect about 19.4%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Rhode Island averages 66.0 possessions per 40, Monmouth 67.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rhode Island) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Monmouth at about 36.7% of its shots from three, Rhode Island about 41.9%.
DefenseRhode Island
Rhode Island's ball-hawking
Rhode Island ranks #15 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Monmouth's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Monmouth has the ball
OffenseRhode Island allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #259
50.4% #124
-2.0 pt/100
16.6% #173
21.1% #10
-3.3 pt/100
31.2% #157
31.8% #247
+0.8 pt/100
32.7% #244
42.6% #331
+0.4 pt/100
75.0% #82
—
+0.2 pt/100
Monmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100
Rhode Island has the ball
OffenseMonmouth allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #231
50.1% #103
-1.8 pt/100
19.2% #329
19.9% #27
-4.2 pt/100
31.0% #163
32.8% #287
+1.0 pt/100
38.4% #92
32.2% #111
-0.0 pt/100
72.1% #206
—
-0.0 pt/100
Rhode Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Monmouthoffense vsRhode Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Monmouth shoots
Rhode Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.5%#25455.3%#7158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.0%#24534.0%#4439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.8%#15331.0%#1038.0%
Three34.2%#15634.7%#23233.7%
Rhode Islandoffense vsMonmouthdefense
Share of shots by zone
Rhode Island shoots
Monmouth allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.1%#26955.3%#6758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.2%#19233.6%#3739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4937.3%#14038.0%
Three31.1%#31833.9%#17433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Monmouth
+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#95 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#157
Def reb %
67.2%
#287
Turnover %
16.6%
#173
Forced TO %
19.9%
#27
FT rate
32.7%
#244
FT allowed
32.2%
#111
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Rhode Island
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#175 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#163
Def reb %
68.2%
#247
Turnover %
19.2%
#329
Forced TO %
21.1%
#10
FT rate
38.4%
#92
FT allowed
42.6%
#331
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Monmouth has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#95 of 365) to Rhode Island’s +0.1 (#175).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Monmouth2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Jason Rivera-TorresFJr6'7"34-3435.215.88.12.91.946.2%31.5%4.981.0%28.9%
13Jack CollinsGSr6'5"31-3134.97.04.74.52.743.0%28.9%4.665.3%17.2%
7Justin RayGSo6'3"34-2128.411.32.11.20.655.4%42.0%4.688.9%21.4%
23Cornelius Robinson IIIFJr6'7"33-2524.98.03.91.21.346.9%31.3%0.564.2%22.2%
15Stefanos SpartalisFFr6'9"32-3023.610.75.10.91.546.5%25.0%0.585.1%29.4%
4Andrew BallGJr6'9"34-920.57.93.90.60.856.4%30.5%2.460.0%22.5%
0Dok MuordarCSr7'1"33-312.44.12.30.10.451.0%—0.064.2%20.4%
2Kavion McClainFSr5'10"11-1135.617.12.85.53.558.0%38.1%5.784.6%29.5%
3Anthony MartinezGFr6'2"25-56.90.60.30.60.427.5%100.0%0.042.9%11.5%
5Corey MillerGJr6'2"9-113.43.70.91.00.360.9%44.4%1.083.3%14.2%
24Jinup DobuolFSo6'8"19-06.13.11.00.20.358.2%44.0%1.350.0%28.0%
8O'Marion HarveyFFr6'7"14-03.80.60.70.10.480.0%0.0%0.133.3%13.5%
20Zubayr GriffinGFr6'4"10-03.61.10.70.20.255.0%20.0%0.5—18.6%
9Lucas OrchardGSo6'3"9-02.40.80.30.00.050.0%100.0%0.10.0%18.6%
42Quinn PetersFJr6'6"9-02.10.30.20.00.00.0%—0.050.0%14.3%
10Jack LeahyGJr6'5"9-01.70.00.10.20.10.0%—0.0—15.3%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MonmouthRhode Island
Efficiency
106.8
106.3
106.6
104.4
68.0
67.3
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
50.1%
48.7%
52.8%
34.2%
31.1%
75.0%
72.1%
32.7%
38.4%
Ball control & glass
16.6%
19.2%
19.9%
21.1%
31.2%
31.0%
32.8%
31.8%
9.1%
11.9%
8.7%
10.2%
Style
34.4%
43.5%
42.9%
40.5%
16.0%
16.5%
53.9%
47.9%
25.7%
29.0%
Roster
2.82
3.52
6'6.2"
6'4.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Monmouth
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Rhode Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.