CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia, PA

Lafayette

Efficiency #319

2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf

Saint Joseph's

Efficiency #118

2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET

66.0

win 15%

Projected

78.0

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: JOES −12.0 · total 144.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Joseph's 68.8, Lafayette 68.0 → 68.4 possessions

+0.2

Saint Joseph's offense vs Lafayette defense

+1.8

Lafayette offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

−6.2

Projected total

144.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Joseph's offense vs Lafayette defense

+1.8

Lafayette offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

+6.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Saint Joseph's by 12.0

12.0

Lafayette side ◂▸ Saint Joseph's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.9 against +12.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Joseph's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Joseph's is the faster team (68.2, #192 of 365) and Lafayette the slower (66.9, #248). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.0

model

Projected team totals

66.0 / 78.0

Lafayette / Saint Joseph's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.0#214

Lafayette

68.8#137

Saint Joseph's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLafayette

Where Lafayette struggles: shooting

Lafayette shoots an effective 49.3% (#278); Saint Joseph's allows 47.7% (#34). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSaint Joseph's

Style match: ball movement

Saint Joseph's assists on 59.6% of its made baskets; Lafayette allows assists on 59.0% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.3% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversLafayette

Lafayette protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Lafayette's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Joseph's) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Lafayette at about 40.3% of its shots from three, Saint Joseph's about 43.0%.

GlassLafayette

Lafayette gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Lafayette's offense.

Lafayette has the ball

OffenseSaint Joseph's allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #278

47.7% #34

-4.3 pt/100

15.3% #90

15.0% #286

+2.4 pt/100

25.8% #326

30.6% #185

-1.9 pt/100

32.4% #249

26.9% #20

-0.8 pt/100

68.9% #303

—

-0.3 pt/100

Lafayette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100

Saint Joseph's has the ball

OffenseLafayette allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #284

53.6% #286

-0.1 pt/100

16.8% #182

15.1% #276

+1.3 pt/100

31.4% #147

28.6% #88

-0.1 pt/100

29.7% #318

30.6% #76

-0.6 pt/100

73.8% #138

—

+0.1 pt/100

Saint Joseph's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Lafayetteoffense vsSaint Joseph'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Lafayette shoots

41.6

5.2

13.5

39.7

Saint Joseph's allows

33.5

7.3

19.5

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#231	52.6%#21	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#152	41.5%#226	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.9%#331	38.3%#168	38.0%
Three	32.2%#273	31.7%#51	33.7%

Saint Joseph'soffense vsLafayettedefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Joseph's shoots

40.1

4.5

11.0

44.5

Lafayette allows

37.2

8.3

16.3

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#189	62.6%#314	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.7%#273	41.5%#224	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.0%#312	37.7%#152	38.0%
Three	30.8%#325	36.0%#298	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Lafayette

−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365

Off reb %

25.8%

#326

Def reb %

71.4%

#88

Turnover %

15.3%

#90

Forced TO %

15.1%

#276

FT rate

32.4%

#249

FT allowed

30.6%

#76

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Saint Joseph's

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#181 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#147

Def reb %

69.4%

#185

Turnover %

16.8%

#182

Forced TO %

15.0%

#286

FT rate

29.7%

#318

FT allowed

26.9%

#20

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Saint Joseph's has more extra scoring chances per game: 0.0 (#181 of 365) to Lafayette’s −0.4 (#194).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Lafayette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Andrew Phillips	G	So	6'4"	32-32	33.4	13.9	4.6	1.3	1.1	48.1%	31.1%	6.5	71.3%	26.3%
1	Caleb Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	31-31	32.7	16.1	3.6	3.2	2.2	48.3%	33.2%	7.4	87.9%	31.1%
22	Christian Humphrey-Rembert	F	Fr	—	32-31	30.1	7.7	6.6	0.5	0.7	52.4%	37.2%	4.9	66.0%	15.6%
44	Shareef Jackson	F	Fr	6'8"	30-30	22.1	10.0	5.0	1.6	2.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	52.4%	29.6%
0	Ryan Pettit	G	Jr	6'2"	28-3	20.8	5.6	3.3	1.5	0.7	52.0%	25.0%	1.4	58.3%	16.9%
13	Misha Bednostin	C	So	6'11"	28-0	10.0	1.4	1.9	0.8	0.6	57.7%	—	0.0	55.6%	11.1%
2	KaiMani Murdock	G	So	6'6"	25-0	10.6	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	49.3%	33.3%	2.5	33.3%	19.1%
34	Luke Bevilacqua	F	Fr	6'11"	25-1	9.1	2.8	1.6	0.5	1.1	58.5%	—	0.0	55.0%	22.1%
24	Folabomi Fayemi	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	6.1	1.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	31.5%	16.7%	0.4	44.4%	21.2%
23	Joshua Wyche	G	So	6'7"	11-0	6.9	0.6	1.6	0.3	0.2	37.5%	0.0%	0.2	25.0%	9.7%
20	Ashton Wallace	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.0%
14	Malik Rasul	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	6.0	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.6	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.4%
11	Luke Azzinaro	F	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.8	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.5	—	23.1%
3	Beckett Currie	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Chris Rubayo	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Justin Vander Baan	C	Sr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
99	Luka Savicevic	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	TJ Berger	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Joseph's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Derek Simpson	G	Sr	6'3"	36-36	33.9	13.8	5.3	5.2	2.1	49.1%	31.5%	5.0	91.7%	25.5%
11	Jaiden Glover-Toscano	G	So	6'6"	34-34	31.4	15.7	4.8	1.0	1.4	52.2%	34.6%	7.6	72.8%	29.4%
7	Dasear Haskins	G	So	6'8"	36-36	27.7	11.1	6.4	1.4	1.2	53.8%	29.9%	3.5	67.6%	23.6%
13	Austin Williford	G	Fr	6'4"	36-19	26.2	7.8	4.7	1.4	1.2	47.5%	33.6%	4.0	69.8%	20.4%
22	Justice Ajogbor	C	Sr	6'10"	36-33	26.0	6.5	4.9	1.3	0.8	66.4%	—	0.0	60.0%	13.0%
5	Anthony Finkley	F	Jr	6'7"	35-13	19.0	5.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	38.2%	28.8%	3.2	80.8%	22.2%
3	Khaafiq Myers	G	Fr	5'10"	34-0	15.8	5.1	2.9	2.3	1.1	42.8%	25.0%	1.8	60.6%	25.4%
23	Mekai Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-0	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	52.9%	18.2%	0.6	100.0%	15.8%
21	Al Amadou	F	So	6'9"	11-0	6.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	42.9%	15.9%
15	Steven Solano	C	So	7'0"	8-0	4.1	1.9	1.3	0.1	0.5	77.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.8%
24	Will Lange	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.6%
20	Billy Rayer	G	So	5'11"	6-0	2.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.4%
6	Owen Verna	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Lafayette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Andrew Phillips	G	So	6'4"	32-32	33.4	13.9	4.6	1.3	1.1	48.1%	31.1%	6.5	71.3%	26.3%
1	Caleb Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	31-31	32.7	16.1	3.6	3.2	2.2	48.3%	33.2%	7.4	87.9%	31.1%
22	Christian Humphrey-Rembert	F	Fr	—	32-31	30.1	7.7	6.6	0.5	0.7	52.4%	37.2%	4.9	66.0%	15.6%
44	Shareef Jackson	F	Fr	6'8"	30-30	22.1	10.0	5.0	1.6	2.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	52.4%	29.6%
0	Ryan Pettit	G	Jr	6'2"	28-3	20.8	5.6	3.3	1.5	0.7	52.0%	25.0%	1.4	58.3%	16.9%
13	Misha Bednostin	C	So	6'11"	28-0	10.0	1.4	1.9	0.8	0.6	57.7%	—	0.0	55.6%	11.1%
2	KaiMani Murdock	G	So	6'6"	25-0	10.6	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	49.3%	33.3%	2.5	33.3%	19.1%
34	Luke Bevilacqua	F	Fr	6'11"	25-1	9.1	2.8	1.6	0.5	1.1	58.5%	—	0.0	55.0%	22.1%
24	Folabomi Fayemi	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	6.1	1.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	31.5%	16.7%	0.4	44.4%	21.2%
23	Joshua Wyche	G	So	6'7"	11-0	6.9	0.6	1.6	0.3	0.2	37.5%	0.0%	0.2	25.0%	9.7%
20	Ashton Wallace	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.0%
14	Malik Rasul	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	6.0	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.6	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.4%
11	Luke Azzinaro	F	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.8	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.5	—	23.1%
3	Beckett Currie	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Chris Rubayo	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Justin Vander Baan	C	Sr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
99	Luka Savicevic	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	TJ Berger	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Lafayette

Against the spread

Season

14-17

Home

4-11

Road

10-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

9-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.9

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 77–82	−4.5	L−9.5	141.5	O159	114.0	121.4	67.5
Feb 28	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 83–77	−3.0	W+3.0	144.5	O160	114.5	106.2	72.5
Feb 25	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	W 70–69	+8.5	W+9.5	147.5	U139	112.2	110.6	62.4
Feb 22	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 61–75	+3.5	L−10.5	141.0	U136	103.5	127.3	58.9
Feb 18	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 86–83	+2.0	W+5.0	139.5	O169	120.3	116.1	71.5
Feb 14	LehighAdjEM #273	H	L 69–78	−1.0	L−10.0	140.5	O147	106.8	120.7	64.6
Feb 11	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 54–68	−3.0	L−17.0	148.5	U122	82.5	103.9	65.5
Feb 7	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 63–60	−1.0	W+2.0	143.0	U123	93.6	89.1	67.3
Feb 4	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 50–65	+3.5	L−11.5	141.5	U115	78.7	102.3	63.5
Jan 31	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 67–65	+5.5	W+7.5	143.0	U132	105.4	102.2	63.6

Saint Joseph's

Against the spread

Season

20-14

Home

8-6

Road

10-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-23-1

Home

7-7

Road

3-12-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −2.6

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 69–84	+10.5	L−4.5	155.0	U153	93.5	113.9	73.8
Mar 22	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	W 76–75	+5.5	W+6.5	151.5	U151	111.9	110.4	67.9
Mar 18	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	W 69–64	+6.0	W+11.0	145.5	U133	103.0	95.5	67.0
Mar 14	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 64–77	+6.5	L−6.5	146.0	U141	98.4	118.4	65.0
Mar 13	DavidsonAdjEM #112	N	W 70–58	−2.0	W+10.0	132.5	U128	114.6	95.0	61.1
Mar 7	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 88–76	−10.5	W+1.5	142.5	O164	128.0	110.5	68.8
Mar 4	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	W 70–67	+2.5	W+5.5	137.0	P137	106.7	102.1	65.6
Feb 28	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	W 61–55	+2.0	W+8.0	141.0	U116	86.8	78.3	70.3
Feb 25	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 81–63	+1.0	W+19.0	136.5	O144	125.7	97.7	64.5
Feb 21	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	H	W 75–61	−9.5	W+4.5	142.0	U136	113.9	92.6	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LafayetteSaint Joseph's

Efficiency

103.4

107.1

112.5

104.5

68.0

68.8

—

Shooting

49.3%

49.2%

50.0%

51.7%

32.2%

30.8%

68.9%

73.8%

32.4%

29.7%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

16.8%

15.1%

15.0%

25.8%

31.4%

28.6%

30.6%

7.9%

9.7%

10.5%

10.8%

Style

39.8%

45.1%

46.1%

44.1%

9.7%

15.5%

55.4%

59.6%

24.7%

26.1%

Roster

1.53

2.54

6'4.4"

6'5.5"

83.1%

90.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Lafayette

Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 82.8%

Lost

Mark Butler 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Justin Vander Baan no D1 minutes last season
Beckett Currie no D1 minutes last season
TJ Berger no D1 minutes last season
Chris Rubayo no D1 minutes last season
Luka Savicevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Joseph's

Returning minutes: 90.9%Returning production: 91.4%

Lost

Jaden Smith 9.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Deuce Jones 7.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kevin Kearney 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Owen Verna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 3	2025-26	Lafayette 76 – 85 Saint Joseph's

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.