CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJoan Perry Brock Center, Farmville, VA

NC Central

Efficiency #346

2025-26: 14-18 · 10-7 conf

Longwood

Efficiency #248

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf

Sat, Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

68.9

win 20%

Projected

78.7

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: LONG −9.8 · total 147.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Longwood 69.0, NC Central 67.3 → 68.0 possessions

−0.6

Longwood offense vs NC Central defense

+3.0

NC Central offense vs Longwood defense

−2.9

Projected total

147.6

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Longwood offense vs NC Central defense

+3.0

NC Central offense vs Longwood defense

+2.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Longwood by 9.8

9.8

NC Central side ◂▸ Longwood side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.7 against a projected 147.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Longwood.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Longwood is the faster team (69.4, #121 of 365) and NC Central the slower (66.6, #261). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.6

model

Projected team totals

68.9 / 78.7

NC Central / Longwood

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.3#266

NC Central

69.0#120

Longwood

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLongwood

Where Longwood scores: the offensive glass

Longwood rebounds 34.6% of its own misses (#57); NC Central lets opponents grab 39.4% of their own misses (#364). Expect about 37.7%, 7.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversLongwood

Longwood turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 20.1% is worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions against Longwood's offense.

AdvantageNC Central

Where NC Central struggles: ball control

NC Central turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#278); Longwood forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#29). Expect about 19.5%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC Central's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC Central at about 37.0% of its shots from three, Longwood about 36.5%.

DefenseNC Central

NC Central's ball-hawking

NC Central ranks #35 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Longwood's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

DefenseLongwood

Longwood's ball-hawking

Longwood ranks #34 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.8% of NC Central's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

NC Central has the ball

OffenseLongwood allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #328

53.8% #293

-1.3 pt/100

18.1% #278

19.8% #29

-3.3 pt/100

30.0% #201

27.7% #58

-1.0 pt/100

39.3% #72

42.1% #326

+0.8 pt/100

73.8% #139

—

+0.1 pt/100

NC Central net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.7 pts/100

Longwood has the ball

OffenseNC Central allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #254

54.5% #317

+1.1 pt/100

19.1% #326

19.9% #26

-4.1 pt/100

34.6% #57

39.4% #364

+4.4 pt/100

41.3% #40

36.9% #233

+0.5 pt/100

74.0% #136

—

+0.1 pt/100

Longwood net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

NC Centraloffense vsLongwooddefense

Share of shots by zone

NC Central shoots

44.2

3.4

18.2

34.3

Longwood allows

40.3

5.0

12.6

42.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.3%#316	63.8%#339	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#225	32.9%#28	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#325	39.7%#231	38.0%
Three	32.6%#247	33.8%#171	33.7%

Longwoodoffense vsNC Centraldefense

Share of shots by zone

Longwood shoots

43.0

5.2

17.1

34.7

NC Central allows

40.6

3.0

16.6

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.6%#252	59.8%#216	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.0%#78	38.1%#139	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#150	38.4%#171	38.0%
Three	31.4%#309	36.4%#321	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

NC Central

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#201

Def reb %

60.6%

#364

Turnover %

18.1%

#278

Forced TO %

19.9%

#26

FT rate

39.3%

#72

FT allowed

36.9%

#233

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−2.8

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Longwood

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#70 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#57

Def reb %

72.3%

#58

Turnover %

19.1%

#326

Forced TO %

19.8%

#29

FT rate

41.3%

#40

FT allowed

42.1%

#326

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Longwood has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#70 of 365) to NC Central’s −1.0 (#233).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC Central2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Gage Lattimore	G	So	6'2"	31-31	36.8	16.6	4.3	2.4	1.9	49.6%	39.2%	6.7	86.7%	26.7%
2	Dionte Johnson	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.8	8.6	4.0	5.1	2.4	48.2%	32.9%	2.7	76.8%	20.3%
21	Kelechi Okworogwo	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	25.6	8.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	54.0%	20.0%	0.6	69.1%	18.7%
5	Tekao Carpenter	G	Sr	6'3"	30-22	25.9	6.8	2.0	1.4	1.3	46.9%	31.6%	3.8	75.5%	18.4%
1	Kyric Davis	G	Sr	6'5"	31-17	22.5	8.1	3.5	0.9	1.6	50.8%	11.8%	0.5	72.5%	23.9%
8	Jae Slack	F	Sr	6'6"	26-10	23.9	10.3	3.3	0.8	1.2	48.9%	35.7%	2.7	75.0%	25.8%
7	Khouri Carvey	F	Sr	6'9"	22-21	26.2	13.6	6.3	1.5	1.8	58.1%	25.0%	0.5	55.3%	30.0%
10	Ryan Archey	G	So	6'0"	25-0	8.0	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.9	42.5%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	32.3%
22	Ramondo Battle II	F	Sr	6'8"	19-5	9.3	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.3	32.8%	18.2%	1.7	52.9%	23.4%
13	Jonathan Dunn	F	Jr	6'7"	11-9	13.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.6	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	55.0%	18.1%
12	Justin Edwards	G	Sr	5'9"	18-0	6.1	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5	28.1%	20.0%	0.3	80.0%	14.0%
3	Khalil Arnold	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	6.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	47.2%	38.5%	1.3	—	16.5%
9	Gbenga Olubi	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.1	31.8%	33.3%	0.2	—	13.2%
4	Camren Daniels	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	31.8%	25.0%	0.4	100.0%	25.4%
0	Caleb Ellison	G	So	6'0"	2-0	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Longwood2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jacoi Hutchinson	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	28.4	12.3	3.3	3.2	1.8	46.5%	25.4%	2.2	86.2%	26.9%
77	Elijah Tucker	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	26.3	12.5	6.8	1.1	2.7	59.0%	50.0%	0.1	71.2%	27.8%
0	Johan Nziemi	F	Sr	6'6"	29-27	25.9	10.6	6.0	1.8	2.0	51.9%	34.8%	0.8	73.1%	24.5%
3	Alphonzo Billups III	G	Jr	6'7"	32-18	23.1	8.1	2.8	1.3	1.2	54.2%	33.6%	3.8	64.3%	21.3%
24	Jaylen Benard	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	19.8	7.3	3.7	0.9	1.0	53.2%	31.7%	3.8	56.3%	22.7%
23	Elijah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	27-2	17.3	3.9	3.6	0.7	0.7	49.3%	31.3%	0.6	67.3%	13.9%
7	Elijah Kelly	G	Fr	6'7"	30-17	11.2	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.5	53.4%	34.2%	1.3	58.3%	13.5%
11	Jaylin Payne	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	8.0	1.8	1.7	0.2	0.6	54.8%	0.0%	0.1	58.3%	15.6%
5	KJ McClurg	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	14.3	2.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	13.3%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.0%
8	Isaiah Kalala	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	3.8	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	58.3%	13.0%
30	Jerome Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.1	1.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	35.0%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	19.1%
10	Gerald Burr III	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Quadri Bashiru	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC Central2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Gage Lattimore	G	So	6'2"	31-31	36.8	16.6	4.3	2.4	1.9	49.6%	39.2%	6.7	86.7%	26.7%
2	Dionte Johnson	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.8	8.6	4.0	5.1	2.4	48.2%	32.9%	2.7	76.8%	20.3%
21	Kelechi Okworogwo	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	25.6	8.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	54.0%	20.0%	0.6	69.1%	18.7%
5	Tekao Carpenter	G	Sr	6'3"	30-22	25.9	6.8	2.0	1.4	1.3	46.9%	31.6%	3.8	75.5%	18.4%
1	Kyric Davis	G	Sr	6'5"	31-17	22.5	8.1	3.5	0.9	1.6	50.8%	11.8%	0.5	72.5%	23.9%
8	Jae Slack	F	Sr	6'6"	26-10	23.9	10.3	3.3	0.8	1.2	48.9%	35.7%	2.7	75.0%	25.8%
7	Khouri Carvey	F	Sr	6'9"	22-21	26.2	13.6	6.3	1.5	1.8	58.1%	25.0%	0.5	55.3%	30.0%
10	Ryan Archey	G	So	6'0"	25-0	8.0	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.9	42.5%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	32.3%
22	Ramondo Battle II	F	Sr	6'8"	19-5	9.3	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.3	32.8%	18.2%	1.7	52.9%	23.4%
13	Jonathan Dunn	F	Jr	6'7"	11-9	13.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.6	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	55.0%	18.1%
12	Justin Edwards	G	Sr	5'9"	18-0	6.1	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5	28.1%	20.0%	0.3	80.0%	14.0%
3	Khalil Arnold	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	6.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	47.2%	38.5%	1.3	—	16.5%
9	Gbenga Olubi	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.1	31.8%	33.3%	0.2	—	13.2%
4	Camren Daniels	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	31.8%	25.0%	0.4	100.0%	25.4%
0	Caleb Ellison	G	So	6'0"	2-0	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

NC Central

Against the spread

Season

15-13

Home

3-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −4.2

Covered 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-14-1

Home

4-5

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.5

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 63–70	+11.5	W+4.5	143.5	U133	101.2	112.4	62.3
Mar 13	Delaware StAdjEM #358	N	W 59–53	−4.0	W+2.0	131.0	U112	104.5	93.9	56.4
Mar 12	MD EasternAdjEM #345	N	W 83–76 OT	+1.0	W+8.0	132.0	O159	119.6	109.5	69.4
Mar 5	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	L 64–80	−7.5	L−23.5	141.5	O144	91.7	114.6	69.8
Mar 2	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 77–73	+2.5	W+6.5	133.5	O150	112.8	106.9	68.3
Feb 28	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 74–60	−2.5	W+11.5	135.5	U134	120.3	97.5	61.5
Feb 21	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 67–100	+12.5	L−20.5	143.0	O167	94.0	140.3	71.3
Feb 18	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	L 72–85	−3.0	L−16.0	137.5	O157	107.9	127.4	66.7
Feb 16	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	W 80–76	−5.5	L−1.5	148.0	O156	109.7	104.3	72.9
Feb 14	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	L 56–58	−11.0	L−13.0	145.5	U114	89.6	92.8	62.5

Longwood

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

7-5

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-12

Home

9-3

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.6

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	N	L 82–85 OT	−1.0	L−4.0	141.0	O167	107.1	111.0	76.5
Feb 28	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 90–74	−2.0	W+14.0	156.0	O164	122.0	100.3	73.8
Feb 21	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	W 107–96 2OT	+2.5	W+13.5	154.0	O203	125.8	112.9	85.0
Feb 19	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	L 65–72	+2.5	L−4.5	140.0	U137	97.8	108.3	66.5
Feb 14	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 82–75 OT	−6.0	W+1.0	146.5	O157	98.0	89.6	83.7
Feb 12	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	L 74–79	−2.0	L−7.0	142.5	O153	109.7	117.1	67.5
Feb 7	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 74–79	+10.0	W+5.0	152.5	O153	95.7	102.2	77.3
Feb 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 86–66	−12.5	W+7.5	148.0	O152	121.1	93.0	71.0
Jan 31	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 59–71	+10.5	L−1.5	157.0	U130	93.5	112.5	63.1
Jan 29	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 60–65	−1.5	L−6.5	147.5	U125	85.2	92.3	70.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NC CentralLongwood

Efficiency

103.2

105.7

115.7

109.5

67.3

69.0

—

Shooting

47.5%

49.7%

46.7%

51.1%

32.6%

31.4%

73.8%

74.0%

39.3%

41.3%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

19.1%

19.9%

19.8%

30.0%

34.6%

39.4%

27.7%

9.4%

10.9%

12.4%

9.4%

Style

33.9%

34.8%

41.7%

44.2%

17.3%

11.8%

52.7%

47.1%

26.5%

39.8%

Roster

3.53

3.25

6'3.9"

6'5.6"

—

76.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

NC Central

Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Longwood

Returning minutes: 76.6%Returning production: 79.5%

Lost

Emanuel Richards 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Redd Thompson Jr. 22.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys

Added

Gerald Burr III no D1 minutes last season
Quadri Bashiru no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 77% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 20	2025-26	Longwood 74 – 72 NC Central

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.